AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

For once the Crosby weather seems to be absent this week. For a tournament that was cancelled outright five years ago, had the 3rd round completed six months later three years, was reduced to 54 holes two years and was completed on the Monday last year, it must be a huge relief to the organizers and the players if the weathermen are correct and it is not Puddle Beach on view this week. It may cast a shadow over the course form stats that such extreme weather conditions have been prevalent, but this an unusual event. Three days of pro-am golf on three different courses, followed by (hopefully!) a return to Pebble Beach on Sunday. The form of 'giggle golf' does not lend itself to predictable winners even in the absence of weather chaos.

This week also marks a return to the scene of Tiger's humiliation of his compatriots last June. Weather and course conditions may be very different this week, but the spectre of that event will hang over every player this week. It will even do so over Tiger, for his fallibility has been all too evident in the past three months and that US Open was the pinnacle of his domination of world golf. He won twice at Pebble Beach last year, but his poor performances in 1998 and 1999 in pro-am golf and his current form leave no value in odds which are no longer odds-on.

The courses used are Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Poppy Hills, which Pebble Beach playing the hardest of the three. In recent years it has played 0.5 shots harder than the other two, but Poppy Hills marginally the easiest of the three, but with weather conditions expected to be less extreme, this may render these course comparisons useless. Often described as the most spectacular golf course in the world, Pebble Beach will more than make up for the 'celebrity' distractions this week.

The three outright plays this week are David Duval, Davis Love and Justin Leonard, all each-way plays paid on the first five places. Until last year when he come off a tough time with fans in Phoenix, Duval had a very record in this event: 15th in 1999, 2nd in 1997 and 2nd in 1995. By progression, he does look good this year! His missed cut last week, like some many of the big names, can be downplayed with his first use of the Nike irons, it will be better this week and as with his performances in the Bob Hope, he can settle in this format whatever the weather. Expect a bounce-back this week.

Davis Love did threaten at times last week, but when Calc had such a large lead and the rounds were not being finished on time, it is easy to explain Love's poor finish. Like Mickelson, he is not the most motivated of players when not in contention. It can in part help to understand his relatively poor performances in this event in its disrupted history, but he has still finished in the top-25 in four of the last five stagings, including 3rd in the undisrupted 1995 event, so he is not unsuited to the pro-am format. Good odds for someone who has finished in the top-5 in over a quarter of all events he has played in the past 3 years.

Justin Leonard did miss the cut by a stroke last week as a selection, but he still looks in good form and his stats can hardly be faulted either. This season he has hit 76% of fairways and 82% of greens in regulation on the PGA Tour. He has also shown an aptitude for pro-am golf and this course. He was 16th at last year's US Open, and in this event he was 4th two years ago and 15th last year despite having playing the hardest course in the worst of the weather: Pebble Beach in the first round. Like Duval, I expect a strong bounce-back.

Outright plays:

David Duval to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

Davis Love to win 28/1 e.w. @ First Stake

Justin Leonard to win 40/1 e.w. @ First Stake

72-hole plays:

Andrew Magee to beat John Daly -111 @ First Stake [2 units]
One top-10 does not signify a change of form and especially when it's a week when patience with your playing partners is essential. Daly is not a regular pro-am golfer and has avoided this tournament for a few years; can't see him making it until Sunday

Hal Sutton to beat Steve Elkington -111 @ First Stake [2 units]
A case of survival of the fittest! Sutton does not have a good record in this event, but nor does he in wet weather so the two may be related. Has shown glimpses of a return to form, though not over 72-holes, yet still much better than Elkington's only appearance so far this year - virtually last at the Tucson Open

Kirk Triplett to beat Grant Waite -120 @ Carib
Both come off missed cuts and not very impressive past performances in this event, but Triplett does appear to be playing much the better golf of the two - he has hit 80% of greens in regulation so far this year compared to Waite's 70% and gets the nod in accordance

1st round update:

The most important piece of information from the 1st round is the differences in scoring across the three courses. Just using the raw scores, then Spyglass had the highest average score of the three (72.0), followed by Pebble Beach (71.7) and the easiest was Poppy Hills (71.3). However, it may be the case that the best players were playing Poppy Hills and the worst ones Spyglass. Using the Sagarin player ratings to measure player quality, it was actually the other way around. Adjusting the player quality, Spyglass played 0.5 shots harder than Pebble Beach and 1.3 shots harder than Poppy Hills in the 1st round. Something that needs to be taken into consideration and is in line with last year's event.

The three matchups are not faring too great. Sutton and Elkington are tied after opening 70s on Spyglass, Magee lies two shots behind Daly after both playing Spyglass, while Triplett is one shot behind Waite, but played Spyglass yesterday while Waite played the easier Pebble Beach. Very close in all three, but would rather be a shot ahead than a shot behind!

The outrights look forgettable. Leonard shot 76 on Pebble Beach and Duval shot 75 on Spyglass Hill. At least Love's 71 at Spyglass keeps him in the tournament. Based on the course differences noted above, there are several 2nd round plays:

Sergio Garcia to beat Mike Weir -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Sergio Garcia to beat Mark Calcavecchia -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

David Toms to beat Jesper Parnevik -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

David Toms to beat Brad Faxon -120 @ Five Dimes

Paul Azinger to beat Rocco Mediate -115 @ Five Dimes

Vijay Singh to beat Tom Lehman -115 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-1-2 and +3.80 units

With the exception of Faxon who inflicted a two-shot defeat to Toms, a good day to take advantage of the course differences and could have been so much better: both Weir and Mediate recorded birdies on their last holes to deny us the win and secure only a push. The three victors were Garcia by three over Calcavecchia, Toms by one over Parnevik and Singh by eleven over Lehman.

The 72-hole plays stand 1-1-1 with Sutton tied with Elkington, Triplett leading Waite by five and Magee trailing Daly by seven. Still time for Big John to explode! The only outright play with any chance remained as such as Love raced to five-under-par after his first eight holes, but couldn't move forward thereafter. He finishes the day in 20th place and with at least an outside chance of a place finish.

The 2nd round confirmed the differences in the difficulty of the courses found in round 1. The raw averages were Pebble Beach - 72.9, Spyglass Hill - 72.8; Pebble Hill - 71.5. Once adjustments using the Sagarin ratings were used to compensate for the different qualities of player across the courses yesterday, then Pebble Beach played 0.1 shots harder than Spyglass Hill and 1.5 shots harder than Poppy Hills. On the basis on this cross-course comparison, here are the 3rd round plays:

Mike Weir to beat Sergio Garcia -105 [2 units]

Franklin Langham to beat Rocco Mediate -110

Tim Herron to beat Jonathan Kaye -125 [3 units]

David Berganio to beat Willie Wood -120 [2 units]

John Daly to beat Barry Cheesman -135

Dan Forsman to beat Casey Martin -125 [2 units]

Brad Faxon to beat David Toms -110

Paul Azinger to beat Rocco Mediate -115 [3 units]

Paul Azinger to beat David Toms -105 

Davis Love to beat Phil Mickelson -105 [2 units]

Davis Love to beat Vijay Singh -105 [2 units]

All lines are at Five Dimes who must be applauded for the amount of matchups they produce each week for PGA Tour event

3rd round update: 7-4 and +4.75 units

Again course difference equaled unit accumulation   The results: Weir/Garcia 4 up; Langham/ Mediate 5 up; Herron/Kaye 6 down; Berganio/Wood 2 up; Daly/Cheesman 3 down; Forsman/Martin 3 up; Faxon/Toms 1 up; Azinger/Mediate 4 up; Azinger/Toms 1 down; Love/Mickelson 3 down; Love/Singh 1 up.

At the cut, just one 72-hole play was decided and quite an eventful last round it was too! Magee trailed Daly by seven at the start of the day, but Daly dropped nine shots in the opening three holes   Time for Daly to storm off the course? Not in this event! He closed with four birdies in the last six holes and with Magee's double-bogey on his penultimate hole, a surprising sizeable lead for Magee turned into a one-shot defeat Much more sedate in the other matches: Sutton is tied with Elkington and Triplett leads Waite by four after 54 holes.

Steady, but not really enough, improvement by Love in the 3rd round as he moves up from 31st to 14th, but still lies four shots out of a place finish. Both Duval and Leonard missed the cut. 

4th round plays:

Olin Browne to beat Craig Barlow -120 @ Carib

Michael Clark to beat Garrett Willis +100 @ DAS [2 units]

Chris DiMarco to beat Sergio Garcia +110 @ Olympic

Davis Love to beat Sergio Garcia -120 @ Five Dimes

Craig Stadler to beat Matt Gogel -105 @ GoTo Casino [3 units] - can't access Moneyplays at the moment

Vijay Singh to beat Mike Weir -120 @ WSEX

Final update: 2-4-0 and -5.35 units for the day; 13-10-3 and +2.98 units for the week

Disappointing close to an otherwise very profitable week. Easy wins for Love (13 shots) and Singh (4 shots), but DiMarco double-bogeyed his last to turn a one-shot lead into a one-shot loss, while Browne also lost by one. More comprehensive were Clark's seven-shot and Stadler's five-shot losses. The remaining 72-hole plays finished 1-0-1 with Sutton beating Elkington by seven and Triplett being caught by Waite. Let's hope the Buick Invitational is less of a roller coaster!

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +15.50 units

He hasn't won on Tour for three years and he has been a player I've been reluctant to side with over the past few years, but today's 63 made amends for a lot of that! Love's victory was deserved and spares the blushes of the missed cut of the other two picks Go Davis!!