Bay Hill Invitational

Twelve months ago I wrote "None other than Arnold Palmer issues the invitations for this event and when he issues an invitation, no-one refuses!" After Davis Love, David Duval and Thomas Bjorn has withdrawn, what a difference a year makes! But according to the pros, Bay Hill is in their top five for most enjoyed stops on the PGA Tour. It is unlikely to be repeated again next year.

One player who does keep coming back is John Daly. The Honda Classic last week was the scene of his best tournaments in recent years, Bay Hill is definitely not. It was in 1998 that he famously took 18 on the 6th hole in the final round en route to 85; last year he beat that with 87 in the final round. He didn't play in 1999 as the event fell on a week when he had custody of his daughters, but he is here this week and let's hope he makes it to Sunday!

The course is long at 7,200 yards and tight, having been lengthened in recent years; the course record of 62 dates back to Andy Bean in 1981 and Greg Norman in 1984. The favored shot for this course is a draw, particularly for the front-nine, but players who has done well in this tournament have had good all-round games. Woods, Els and Mickelson have won this tournament in three of the past four years and to highlight the importance of good putting on the large, undulating Bermuda greens, the winners immediately before them were Loren Roberts twice and Ben Crenshaw. Apart from looking for a 'complete' player, other factors to take note of are that Tiger, among others, lives close by, Steve Lowery and Dicky Pride are members of the club and Robert Damron is personal friend of Arnie and grew up on the course.

The three picks this week are Vijay Singh, Mark Calcavecchia and Steve Flesch. Singh has been in the sort of form that could easily secure him another Green Jacket. He has won two of his last four events and finished in the top-3 in the other two. In terms of course experience, he has not missed a year since 1993 and only Tim Herron of this week's field holds a lower 10-year scoring average at Bay Hill. With his putter under control, he very capable of beating Tiger and taking this title with ease.

Calc is another who has benefited from some inspired form with the putter, he would have been the most unlikely of candidates to top the putting average stats until he changed his grips and the effect has been incredible. Recently he has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in three of his last four tournaments and if last week is anything to go by, he has also undergone a very successful knee operation. He had been an ever-present at Bay Hill for the past ten years, securing three top-5 finishes along the way, but it is his inspired current form that could carry him to victory. He should have won last week, but right now he is more likely to be spurred on rather than disheartened by his failure to seize his chances on Sunday.

The third pick is Steve Flesch who benefits from a very large price that was certainly warranted until last week. His game had been afflicted by an ability to put four good rounds together all season, but that changed last week when he look very secure in his 7th place finish. He has only played here once before - he finished 18th last year - but can certainly compete with the best of this week's field and could build on last week to push for a place finish at least.

Outright plays:

Vijay Singh to win 16/1 e.w. @ Stanley

Mark Calcavecchia to win 25/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Steve Flesch to win 80/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler 

72-hole plays:

Chris Perry to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ Ladbrokes 
Appleby's 7th place finish was his best of the season and was to be expected on a course on which he played well in the past. Not so this week as he has missed the cut in two of the past three seasons and finished 64th here the other time. Perry should yet again make the top-25 to win this one

Tom Lehman to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ Simon Bold 
PGA Tour players dominate this event and there is no reason to expect Campbell to change that this week. He has not played here before and was afflicted by some erratic form last month. He will not compete with Lehman who lost in a playoff for this title two years ago and has been in the top-25 in 1998 and 2000

Greg Chalmers to beat Geoff Ogilvy -111 @ Centrebet 
Apart from a let-down from last week's 2nd place finish, Ogilvy's booming driver will not find a welcome home at Bay Hill. He has not played here before and will not find the course setup to his liking. Chalmers, for his part, comes here on the back of two consecutive top-15 finishes and looks good for another top-25 finish

Scott Dunlap to beat John Daly -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Not quite a headline player to oppose Daly, but on a course that demands accuracy it fits nicely into Dunlap's strengths and has at least secured a mid-table finish in his two visits. Daly's new patience will be tested here - this is a very different course to last week and he will be reminded of those final rounds here

Steve Flesch to beat Lee Janzen -111 @ Paddy Power 
Janzen has an awful record here. His 46th position last year was his 2nd best in nine visits, so is definitely one to oppose this week. Flesch is tipped for a place finish, which will be more than enough 

Frank Lickliter to beat Dennis Paulson -110 @ Carib 
Both come here after two week breaks and a roller-coaster start to the season and while neither has played particularly well on this course so far, it should strongly favor the more accurate Lickliter who can add better putting statistics as well

David Toms to beat Steve Stricker -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Raising his game after the WGC Matchplay has obviously been a difficulty for Stricker and he will find it difficult to do so again this week because of his wayward driver. Toms has neither concern and returns to an event in which he has finished in the top-20 in the past three years

Adding:

Chris Perry to beat Greg Chalmers -111 @ Simon Bold
Chalmers should have the beating of Ogilvy on this course, but will find Perry a different proposition. He is in even better form and does have decent course form as well, which is something that Chalmers does not have from his single visit to Bay Hill

Greg Norman to beat John Daly -111 @ Ladbrokes
Adding another anti-Daly play. Norman hasn't played this event since 1996 when he was a different player, but he looked in good form in Australia and his more accurate, controlled golf will be rewarded this week

2nd round plays:

Lee Westwood to beat Greg Chalmers -105 @ Moneyplays

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Darren Clarke -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Fred Couples to beat Greg Norman -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Sergio Garcia to beat Colin Montgomerie -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Steve Lowery to beat Tim Herron +100 @ Moneyplays

Lee Westwood to beat Colin Montgomerie -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

2nd round update: 4-2-0 and +3.45 units

Some strange scores on the links today so happy to take a profit on the day and only have Westwood as a loser. He lost by two to Chalmers and by three to Montgomerie. The margins of victory for the other four were Jimenez by 8 shots, Couples by 1 shot, Garcia by 3 shots and Lowery by 2 shots.

Five of the nine 72-hole plays were decided at the cut with three winners, though it was only a break-even performance as the two-unit play on Dunlap was a frustrating 1 shot loss to Daly. Elsewhere Norman beat Daly by 10 shots, Perry beat Appleby by 14 shots, Lehman beat Campbell by 9 shots and Flesch lost by 15 to Janzen. Currently break-even in the remaining 72-hole plays as well. Chalmers and Lickliter are both tied with their opponents, while Toms trails Stricker by one and Perry leads Chalmers by four.

Finally, in the outrights, Calc lost his share of the overnight lead and fell to 7th, though that is still only 2 shots out of the lead and Singh lies 3 shots further back in 19th place. Decent chance with those two, but not with Flesch whose tournament has finished on 10-over-par!

3rd round plays:

Fred Couples to beat Lee Westwood +120 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Steve Lowery to beat Robert Damron -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Grant Waite to beat Robert Damron +100 @ Sportbet [2 units]

Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -180 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Paul Goydos +100 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Steve Stricker to beat Rocco Mediate -115 @ Carib [3 units]

Corey Pavin to beat Nick Faldo -120 @ Five Dimes

Will look at two-balls later.

Adding:

Grant Waite to beat Fulton Allem -120 @ Stanley [2 units]

3rd round update: 5-3-0 and +4.35 units

Rather lucky to get away with a profitable day for it was never looking good! Had liked so many matchups, but could only hit two of the four 3-unit plays. Perry beat Goydos by four and Lowery beat Damron by three, but otherwise Couples lost to Westwood by five and Stricker lost to Mediate by ten. Westwood seems to be my bogey player of the week! Of the rest, Pavin lost by two to Faldo, Woods beat Garcia by two and Waite edged home by one shot in both his matchups.

Still split on the remaining 72-hole plays. Chalmers trails Ogilvy by three, Lickliter trails Paulson by one, Toms leads Stricker by three and Perry leads Chalmers by eight. Calc fell away today with a 75, but at least Singh took up the mantle and lies in 4th place, just 3 shots out of the lead. That makes it one selection in all four events this week in a place position with just 18 holes to go. Should make for interesting viewing tomorrow!

4th round plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Lee Janzen +105 @ Five Dimes

Scott Hoch to beat Scott McCarron +105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Chris Perry to beat Lee Janzen -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Scott McCarron -105 @ Sportfanatik [3 units] [-110 @ Five Dimes]

Final update: 3-1-0 and +4.80 units for the day; 18-9-0 and +15.17 units for the week

Chris Perry's triple-bogey on the last spoils the day a little as it results in a two-shot loss to Janzen, but otherwise it was a great day and a great week. Perry still managed a one-shot win over McCarron, while Hoch beat Janzen by one and McCarron by four. Three of the four remaining 72-hole plays are also winners: Chalmers beat Ogilvy by four, Toms beat Stricker by three and Perry beat Chalmers by six. The only loss was Lickliter, by four to Dennis Paulson. A winning record on the 72-hole plays and on each day

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -1.75 units

Singh briefly threatened to catch Woods, but two double-bogeys on anyone's card will end their challenge. He finished 4th, but tied with three other, so the return is rather paltry @ 16/1. Calcavecchia had been leading after the 1st day, but went backwards thereafter. He finished 31st, which was still better than Flesch who had the weekend off.

Pleasing week also for bringing the PGA Tour matchups and total plays into the black for the year