BellSouth Classic

The week after the TPC and the week before the Masters, it is a time to rest for many and that means that the field at the BellSouth is once again a little thin. With the Masters Committee having decided that winning a PGA Tour event was no longer a ticket to Augusta and with Sugarloaf being a physically-demand, hilly course, the absence is understandable. Yet, this will be the first time in over a month that the PGA Tour has been played on Bentgrass greens and with the wide-open fairways at Sugarloaf, this should be ideal preparation for next week. The Augusta National is only two hours' drive away and this could be a week for acclimatization to more humid weather, if the thunderstorms that are forecast can be avoided.

The event was moved forward six weeks to April two years and the effect was to favor the longer-hitters still further as the Zoysiagrass rough is still fairly dormant at this time of the year; length not accuracy will hold the advantage this week and next. With the abrupt change to a different type of grass on the greens, it has also been a mark of high-finishers here that they are good putters.

The event has been staged at the Greg Norman-designed Sugarloaf course since 1997 and in that time has won an increasing number of admirers. Though maybe none moreso than Stewart Cink who had a house built on this course two years ago. Another to note with a local connection is Scott Dunlap who is the local touring pro. Of note for Phil Mickelson is that the defending champion has never successfully defended the BellSouth Classic.

The three outright selections for this week are Davis Love, Stewart Cink and Mike Weir. In some ways, a weekend away from a tough course can be a decent break, especially if the tournament runs over into Monday because of bad weather. And as can be seen from the 'Round 1' table, Love shoots his lowest 1st round scores when coming off a missed cut! While the terrain may not suit his back, the course setup is perfect for his game. He is another with a local connection, residing at Sea Island, Georgia, and was even inducted into the Georgia Hall of Fame in Augusta in January this year. Has an excellent chance of making it two wins this year.

With a record of 5th, 2nd and 10th in the past three years, Cink is an almost automatic choice, particularly given his liking for the course. Of course, he missed the cut spectacularly last week, but like Love his game is more suited to this course and also like Love, as the 'Round 1' table shows, his 1st round scoring average is more than a full shot lower when coming off a missed cut. Not making the weekend hurts the pride of these players and they make amends! It may be a concern that he blew a winning chance in 1999, but he has won on Tour since then and is as good a prospect to win as to be placed.

Finally, Mike Weir had a poor Sunday/Monday to fall to 44th last week, but here he returns to a course on which he finished 5th last time out. Not the longest of hitters on Tour, but a very good putter, this week could signal a return to the form that had brought him three top-10 finishes in his previous four tournaments. Capable of winning, but a place finish is more likely.

Outright plays:

Davis Love to win 10/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds

Stewart Cink to win 28/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds

Mike Weir to win 28/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds or Surrey 

72-hole plays:

Glen Day to beat Billy Andrade +112 @ Five Dimes 
Day may have missed his last three cuts, but will welcome the change in greens and does have an impressive record on this course. In his three starts here, he has finished 19th, 30th and 7th. Andrade has played here in all five year, but is 7-over-par for that time, which does not compare well to Day's 23-under-par!

Jerry Kelly to beat Jose Coceres -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
If Kelly can overcome losing his lead last week, he will coast this matchup. Coceres finished 2nd in Brazil last week, which is hardly ideal preparation, plus he has great driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats, but extremely poor driving distance and putting ones and this week it is the latter that will be important. Kelly is far better suited to this event and has played every year at Sugarloaf

David Toms to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -130 @ GoTo Casino 
The fairways may be more favorable for Olly this week, but he still does not have a good record here. That cannot be said for Toms who has had three top-15 finishes in the last four years here and has the far better stats. He was a close fourth behind Mike Weir in the choices for the outrights this week

Chris Perry to beat Greg Norman -115 @ Five Dimes 
Fully-recovered from his stomach flu, Perry should carry on where he left off at the Bay Hill and that is in excellent form. Before his breakthrough year of 1999, he had a poor record in this event but did finish 10th last year and can be counted upon for another solid performance. Opposing the course designer here as his putting may not be of the required grade here and the off-course distractions of being responsible for the course may hinder his concentration

Chris Perry to beat Craig Parry -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Parry has had a difficult time since rejoining the PGA Tour last month and on a course that rewards length not accuracy, he is not expected to reverse that trend this week

Chris Perry to beat Grant Waite -110 @ BlueSq
Waite has a decent record on this course and has had some good finishes this season already, but his form has been very erratic and the play in this matchup is on the solid and predictable Perry

1st round plays:

Ernie Els to beat Mike Weir -113 @ Five Dimes

Davis Love to beat Nick Price -117 @ Five Dimes

Paul Stankowski to beat Scott McCarron +110 @ Moneyplays

Chris Perry to beat Greg Norman -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Mike Weir +110 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

1st round update: 3-1-0 and +4.20 units

Satisfactory way to start an unsatisfactory tournament. Perry dropped three shots in his last two holes, but still beat Norman by one and Weir by four. Els also beat Weir, by two shots, after a picking up three shots in the last few holes. Stankowski was a big loser though, by six shots to McCarron. The Love play was void as Price had already withdrawn.

The 72-hole plays are also encouraging. Perry's late collapse resulted in a one-shot deficit to Parry and a tie with Waite, but the other plays are all ahead. Perry leads Norman by one, Kelly leads Coceres by seven and Toms leads Olazabal by four. Of the outrights, Love and Cink are both 16th, but Weir's tournament is probably already over. He lies in 114th position.

2nd round plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Scott Dunlap -115 @ Five Dimes

Chris DiMarco to beat Dennis Paulson -115 @ Five Dimes

Ernie Els to beat Mike Weir -117 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Scott McCarron to beat Paul Stankowski -135 @ Five Dimes

Jesper Parnevik to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -128 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-3-1 and -2.58 units

Frustrating way to hand back too much of yesterday's gains. DiMarco shot 67 to move to the top of the leaderboard, but both of his opponents shot the two low rounds of the day: 65   In the top play, Els also shot 67 and secured only a push against Weir, while McCarron's 67 was enough for a five-shot win against Stankowski. Parnevik was edged by a shot to Olazabal.

Just as frustrating was Perry's collapse from being 3rd after 16 holes to missing the cut after 36. He carried on where he left off yesterday and missed the cut to hand victories to Norman, Parry and Waite in the 72-hole plays by seven, six and two shots respectively. In the other two plays, Kelly beat Coceres by eight shots and Toms is leading Olazabal by five with 36 holes to play. In the outrights, Love and Cink fell to 20th place, while Weir rose to 41st, though at only eight shots out of the lead, anything is possible with 36 holes being played in one day!

3rd round plays:

Greg Norman to beat John Daly -120 @ WSEX

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Pierre Fulke -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Matt Goggin to beat Gary Nicklaus -112 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat John Huston -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jesper Parnevik to beat Mike Weir +110 @ Carib [2 units]

Adding:

Greg Norman to beat Robert Damron -105 @ Moneyplays

3rd round update: 3-1-1 and +3.00 units

Chaotic day with 36 holes to be played so matchups only offered for the first 18, but certainly made easier by a good showing on a high-scoring day. Three-shot wins for Maruyama and Norman, seven-shot win for Goggin and a two-shot loss for Parnevik. Norman and Daly tied, while Huston did not play today. Back soon with final update.

Final update: 8-7-2 and +3.37 units for the week

In the only remaining 72-hole play, Toms secured a four-shot win over Olazabal to make it a nice profit on the week despite the losses with Chris Perry. BTW Simon Bold voided all 72-hole matchup bets when it became questionable that 72-holes would be played A very unsavory practice indeed for a company not affiliated to IBAS. Did make small profit out of their decision, but will keep my balances there to a minimum and would boycott them if they didn't have the weakest golf lines in the business!

Update on outright play: 1-2 and +1.00 units

Mike Weir shot an incredible 67 when others were struggling with the hard, fast greens in the wind - Frank Lickliter shot 83! I wrote his tournament "was probably over" after the 1st round, glad to say I was wrong! Cink finished one shot out of a place finish though he had numerous opportunities on the back nine to find that birdie but was very tentative with the putter. Love finished 11th.