Buick Challenge

Georgia hosts its fourth event this year. The event has been moved back a month to the week before the Tour Championship and a stronger field than in previous years is the result. With two of the Georgia events being majors, it has been a good year for the home state players. Notable among these is Davis Love, David Duval and Stewart Cink, the latter two being former students at Georgia Tech. The distinction is important as the Georgia courses have Bermudagrass on their greens. The exception is the Augusta National which replaced its original surfaces with Bentgrass despite its incompatibility with the high temperatures of the region. It is therefore not surprising that all of the last five winners of this championship have come from the Southern states.

The Mountain View course at Callaway Gardens is hilly and much is made of the narrow fairways that are lined with pine trees and thick rough. It may explain the strong showings of Fred Funk and Jeff Maggert here, but this may be a week in which length will be a little more important. The area has had a fair amount of rain in the last couple of weeks which should make the ability to reach the par-fives in two a greater advantage and should reduce the amount of roll on the fairways thereby limiting the effectiveness of the narrowness of the fairways. Nevertheless, this is a course for a course for the ball-strikers, the greens in regulation specialists. With the last four winners being David Duval, David Toms, Steve Elkington and Davis Love, that conclusion is reinforced.

The three selections for this event are Davis Love, Bob Estes and Vijay Singh. Love has an excellent record in this event. Since it was moved to Callaway Gardens in 1991 he has won once (1997) and finished outside the top-20 on just one occasion. With some very strong performances in the past two weeks, he looks a justifiable favorite and the six places on offer with Simon Bold is enough temptation not to take the place-only offer with Olympic for this perennial 'nearly man' - ten runners-up spots but just one victory in the last three seasons.

No such finishing worries with Estes. He led from start to finish at the St Jude Classic in June and also won on his last outing at the Invensys Classic. That victory was only to be expected. He had finished in the top-10 in his previous three events in September and has now shot every single round in the 60s in his last four tournaments. In this form he can certainly improve on his top-25 finishes in this event in the last two years.

The final selection has shown signs of renewed form. Singh did play well when he lost to Torrance in the Cisco World Matchplay two weeks ago and looked a far better player than in previous months when finishing 6th last week. He does have a very poor record on this course when he played here from 1996 to 1998, but he is a confidence player who can put together very long runs of top-10 finishes or better, as he has shown this season. With finishes of 2nd and 3rd on the two occasions that the Tour Championship has been staged at East Lake GC in Georgia, he has shown that he can play on Bermuda greens, but those finishes also show his weakness. He has not won on the PGA Tour since winning the Masters last year. Seven times he has finished in the top-4 on the PGA Tour this year, but he has not won any of those twenty-two events. The 'place-only' odds are definitely appropriate for Vijay.

Outright plays:

David Love to win 10/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold

Bob Estes to win 40/1 e.w. @ Olympic

Vijay Singh to 'show' 6/1 @ Olympic

72-hole plays:

Chris Riley to beat David Berganio -150 @ Camelot
Big difference in form between these and it is reflected in the price, but Riley should win this match more than 60% of the time. He has finished in the top-15 in seven of his last nine events, while Berganio played his first event in over a month in the Invensys Classic and missed the cut

Tom Byrum to beat Tom Scherrer -111 @ Simon Bold
Just as big a difference in form between these two. Scherrer is playing for the sixth straight week and has managed to make the cut on two occasions in that stretch. It was quite an achievement - they are the only cuts he has made in his last fourteen events! By contrast, Byrum has made his last four cuts  and is now within reach of that all-important top-125 position on the money list

Bob Estes to beat John Daly -111 @ BetInternet [3 units]
Daly withdrew from last week's event citing fatigue and with him obligated to play this week because of his Callaway sponsorship, it was to be expected. But this course can hardly rank as one of his favorites, it is narrow and tree-lined and he has only reached the weekend twice in the last eight years, finishing 63rd and 67th on those occasions. He may be playing his best golf for years, but this history is too strong to reverse in one week. Very easy to oppose him with an outright selection in much better form 

Justin Leonard to beat John Daly -110 @ Camelot
The return to narrow fairways and Bermuda greens will suit Leonard as they did at LaCantera when he was victorious four weeks ago. He already four top-25 finishes in six years at Callaway Gardens, but he shouldn't need another to beat Daly

Jesper Parnevik to beat John Daly -118 @ Sportingbet
Parnevik is a debutant on this course, but has shown good form in recent weeks. He finished 6th last week and 11th at the similar LaCantera GC, so a decent showing is expected from the Swede this week

Davis Love to beat David Duval -111 @ Easybets
Duval won this event last year when returning from injury, but it is not injury that explains his lack of competitive golf since winning the British Open. He has only played four times since securing his first major and frankly, he has not looked like an Open champion. His best finish has been 10th and he was a poor 41st in the Michelob Championship three weeks ago. Despite his Georgia connections, it is very surprising to see him cited as the favorite in this matchup by Easybets - they are the only book to do so

Hal Sutton to beat Steve Elkington -111 @ Paddy Power
Both have excellent records in this event, but the clincher is Elkington's performance in the Dunhill Links Championship. He didn't even have the luxury of returning home on Sunday after 54 holes because his amateur partner qualified for the final round even though he missed the cut in the pro event. It meant that Elkington had to endure a fifth day of golf in the wind and cold rain and given his fitness problems, it is too much to expect a strong performance this week from him 

Kirk Triplett to beat J.J. Henry -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Two players in fine form in recent weeks, but Triplett has beaten Henry in the two events that they have both started and Henry was a poor 64th in his last event two weeks ago

Skip Kendall to beat Tom Pernice -125 @ Camelot
Ranked 173rd in driving accuracy and 157th in greens in regulation, it should be a major surprise if Pernice features at all on this course. With 21st his best finish in his last six starts, he will struggle to better that. Kendall has finished in the top-20 in each of the last three events and has a game far more suited to Callaway Gardens

Mid-point update:

Seven of the nine plays are decided at the cut and five are winners   Byrum beat Scherrer by eight, Estes beat Daly by eleven, Leonard beat Daly by three, Parnevik beat Daly by three and Kendall beat Pernice by two. Triplett lost to Henry by three in the 2-unit play, while Sutton bogeyed the last to miss the cut by one and lose to Elkington by two. Shouldn't spoil a very good-looking week as Riley leads Berganio by four Love leads Duval by six in the two remaining plays. Plus there's a very nice look to the top of the leaderboard   Love is 1st, Singh is 2nd and Estes is 7th. Very nice!

Final update: 6-3-0 and +3.56 units

Riley held to beat Berganio by six shots, pity Davis couldn't show the same durability. He lost to Duval by three shots. Still a profitable event though.

Update on outright plays: 2-1 and +4.25 units

Love and Singh showed what fragile front-runners they are. Singh finished outside the money in 10th place, while Love's driving failed him when he needed it most. He did at least finish 5th for a small place return. Best-placed was Estes who finished two shots out of the playoff in 3rd place though he had every opportunity to make up that difference on the back nine today. Still a profitable event though.