Buick Classic

If Southern Hills had not played as tough as most players had expected, then they have another chance to savor those tough conditions this week. This event regularly plays either the week before or the week after the US Open and its major setup is exemplified by the fact that 18 of the 30 different champions have won a major championship with the most common, the US Open, won by 13 of them. The event this year is boosted by Tiger's entry for only the 2nd time, though Mark Brooks is a predictable withdrawal.

The course is very short by pro standards at 6,779 yards, though with tee movements it could reach the 7,000 mark. But as with any US Open-style course, it is not the length that matters. The greens as fast as the pros will face this year and will be hard to hold. At just 4,300 square feet, the greens are amongst the smallest on the PGA Tour. With the narrowness of the fairways and the hilly terrain, this could read as a description of a US Open course.

With an injury that will not be suited to the hills of Westchester, Tiger is avoided at very short odds. The three selections instead are Sergio Garcia, David Duval and Paul Azinger. Garcia finished one-shot out of the playoff between Paulson and Duval last year, but that it is also a sign of how far he has come since then. He had birdied six of the first ten holes to take the lead, only to continue attacking the course and paid the penalty. He shows much more maturity in his game, despite his failings on Sunday, and is easily selected again for another US Open-type event. His short game and his preference for very fast greens make him a likely contender this week.

Duval did at least make the play-off last year - the third in the last three years - only to lose on the 4th extra hole by three-putting. His putting remains a concern, but this is no putting contest. This is a shot-maker's course and that is his strength. He sees the US Open as his best chance of a major and this should be a good course for him; he had finished 10th the previous year. On a tough and playing well despite the poor weekend last week, he should challenge for longer this week.

Finally, Azinger has not had much success at Westchester lately and he missed the event last year, but he did have two top-3 finishes in the early 1990s and played extremely well last week on a course that did not suit his customary fade. With top-5 finishes in his last two events and top-15 in his last five, Zinger is certainly one of the form horses at the moment and of the past two seasons. In the Sagarin ratings based on the last twelve months, Zinger is ranked the 4th best player in the world and only just behind Mickelson and Singh. Good value at the projected odds.

Outright plays:

Sergio Garcia to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sports.com

David Duval to win 18/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or Sports.com

Paul Azinger to win 40/1 @ Stanley

72-hole plays:

David Berganio to beat Kevin Johnson -110 @ Camelot
The course is short and tight and that does not suit Johnson's game. With just about the worst driving accuracy stats on view this week, he is opposed and the play is on a player who finished 4th in the Greater Greensboro Classic and who has played in this event for the past four years, finishing 29th last year

Jay Don Blake to beat Craig Bowden -120 @ Camelot [2 units]
Not one expected to make the weekend. Blake has missed his last two cuts and Bowden his last four. Difference of class though as three of Bowden's cuts have been on the Buy.com Tour. On a short course, this should be one week that Blake's lack of length will not be too prohibitive

Steve Flesch to beat Chris Smith -125 @ Moneyplays
Three missed cuts and no top-50 finishes in his last five events, Smith is definitely out of sorts and this tight course is ill-suited to his game. Flesch recovered well last week to shoot 81-69 to miss the cut and had previously been showing an improvement in form. A top-10 finish two years seals it for Flesch

Brian Watts to beat Matt Gogel -105 @ Camelot
Watts has finished in the top-15 in three of his last five PGA Tour events and definitely under-valued. Gogel did feature last week while finishing 12th, but he had missed the cut in nine of his previous thirteen events and his high finish is expected to take its toll on him this week

Tripp Isenhour to beat Gary Nicklaus +105 @ Camelot
Another expected to be decided on Friday. Both miss more cuts than they make, but Isenhour finished ahead of Nicklaus last week and if the Tour stats are any guide, his game is the more suited to this type of tight course where accuracy off the tee and a good short game are important

Steve Lowery to beat Chris Smith -115 @ Grand Central
Again opposing Smith who has a poor course record and this time with one who has had two top-10 finishes at Westchester in the past three years. Lowery has been making cuts and he is better suited to the course. Straightforward selection.

1st round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Dennis Paulson +100 @ Moneyplays

Sergio Garcia to beat Stewart Cink -122 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Rocco Mediate to beat Stewart Cink -105 @ Five Dimes or Moneyplays

Steve Flesch to beat Chris Smith -125 @ Five Dimes or Moneyplays [2 units]

Adding 1st round plays:

Rich Beem to beat Garrett Willis -140 @ Camelot

Loren Roberts to beat Fred Funk +105 @ Camelot

Greg Kraft to beat Per-Ulrik Johansson +110 @ Camelot

Skip Kendall to beat Len Mattiace +100 @ Camelot

1st round update: 2-6-0 and -4.89 units

Ugly 1st round as weather again disrupts all capping angles   The results: Appleby/Paulson 2 down; Garcia/Cink 3 down; Mediate/Cink 10 down; Flesch/Smith 1 up; Beem/Willis 1 down; Roberts/Funk 1 down; Kraft/Johansson 7 down; Kendall/Mattiace 2 down. Biggest surprise was the strong showing from Cink. Appears to have reverted back to expectations in round two, but that is one round too late. At least 72-hole plays appear strong, standings 4-1-1 after 18 holes, but there is a long way to go in this frustrating event.

3rd round plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Stewart Cink -115 @ Carib

Vijay Singh to beat J.P. Hayes -180 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

Update:

What a difference a day makes! 72-holes plays stood 4-1-1 after 18 holes; at the cut they stand 1-5-0 and two are lost at the cut   The losses were Blake to Bowden by one shot and Lowery to Smith by three shots having missed the cut by just one shot. The rest: Berganio/Johnson 3 down; Flesch/Smith 2 down; Watts/Gogel 1 down; Isenhour/Nicklaus 6 up. This is one frustrating sport! At least Garcia leads the event, though the other two are nowhere.

3rd round update: 1-1-0 and -2.60 units

Azinger shot 68 to beat Cink by a shot, but the shocker was Hayes' 67 to beat Singh by three. He has awful weekend scoring stats, but turned out to be a costly player to oppose. All four remaining 72-hole plays are very tight: Berganio/Johnson all square; Flesch/Smith 3 down; Watts/Gogel all square; Isenhour/Nicklaus 1 up. With Garcia leading by two and Azinger up to 12th, might yet get something out of a very forgettable event!

4th round plays:

Chris Perry to beat Steve Elkington -110 @ Camelot

Jerry Smith to beat Jeff Julian -125 @ Camelot

Final update: 1-0-1 and +1.00 units for the day; 4-12-2 and -13.44 units for the week

At last, the end to a very long week! Perry tied with Elkington and Smith beat Julian by five shots for a token profitable round. The 72-hole plays collapsed even further and at the end, Isenhour had to birdie the last to secure a tie with Nicklaus. Berganio lost by six to Johnson, Flesch lost by eight to Smith and Watts lost by five to Gogel. That's 54 units lost on matchups in the past two weeks on the PGA Tour. Definitely cause for concern!

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +10.50 units

Not for the first time this season, the outright plays rescued the week. Garcia led for four days out of five and was a comfortable 20/1 winner in the end. Azinger failed to make any progress and finished in 16th place, while Duval was further back in 26th.