Byron Nelson Classic

The 12th oldest event on the PGA Tour and the only one that is named for a player. The Byron Nelson Classic honors the player who, despite Tiger's streak last year and maybe his streak at the moment, still holds the record for the most consecutive PGA Tour wins and who won the inaugural event in 1944. One of the best fields outside the Majors has assembled this week and the prominence of this event has been signaled by the price money on offer: $4.5 million.

While Els and Mickelson make their first, and ultimately frustrating, appearances since the Masters, Woods makes his this week and seeks to extend his run of victories which currently stands at three. He is a previous winner of this event (1997) and finished one shot out of the three-way playoff last year despite an opening round 73. He is difficult to oppose as a winner of this event, but as a wagering proposition then 7/4 is just too short, particularly given the need for accuracy and more importantly, good putting in this event. Woods may be the leading money winner on Tour, but he ranks 91st in driving accuracy and 75th in the putting stats and that makes the value in 7/4 disappear.

The event is played over two courses: the TPC at Four Seasons Resort (also referred to as the TPC at Las Colinas) and Cottonwood Valley. The latter had been viewed as an easy course. It averaged a shot easier than Las Colinas, despite being a shot higher in par. That differential narrowed a little last year when early Spring rain made the Bermuda rough a more difficult proposition at both courses and Cottonwood Valley was no longer a haven for big hitters. Similar conditions are expected this week, but as in previous years, it is expected that the event will be won with the short game and not off the tee.

While Woods is passed over and Love has withdrawn from the field, the three outright picks this week are Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk. Mickelson has played in this event every year since 1996 and in that time he has recorded all but two rounds in the 60s, has won the event once (1996) and finished 2nd in a playoff last year. It defies the assumption that you have to straight off the tee in this event. He was a frustrating 2nd last week as a win-only pick and the fact remains that he has finished in the top-3 of four of his last five events, but has won none of them. It was not a problem that particularly afflicted him last year and so he is retained though maybe it would be best if he were not leading after 54 holes!

Vijay Singh has only ever played this event twice. He withdrew when the event was reduced to 36 holes in 1994 and last year he finished 41st. That aside, this is an event that should have suited his game even before he jumped to #1 on the PGA Tour putting stats. His current form is excellent, rather too much like Els, Love and the Mickelson of today, he really does not convert enough contentions in victories on the PGA Tour. With that in mind, his best value is probably with the 'without Woods' markets and unfortunately there is only one on offer this week: at Centrebet.

To complete an unfortunate trio of 'nearly men', Jim Furyk is added to the list. When he wins, almost exclusively in Las Vegas, he is very impressive, but all too often he finished in the top-10 without really challenging for the lead. This is reflected in his history at this event, though he did manage a top-5 finish in 1997. Coming off consecutive top-10 finishes, he should again go close this week on a course that suits his game. He is joint top of the putting stats with Singh and is in the top-20 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. He is good enough to win here, but experience suggests that a place-only bet is the best proposition for Furyk.

Outright plays:

Phil Mickelson to win 11/1 e.w. @ Stanley

Vijay Singh to win 11/1 e.w. @ Centrebet [w/o Woods market]

Jim Furyk to finish in the top-four ('show') 15/2 @ Olympic  * this is the expected line, if less than 7/1 then the play is 33/4 @ Centrebet *

Early 72-hole plays:

Glen Day to beat John Daly -111 @ Simon Bold
On a tight course, this has to be a match that will be decided before the weekend. Daly has an awful record in this event as would be expected and despite some encouraging performances of late, he will struggle this week. Day is no Tiger Woods, but he has played here every year since 1994 and has secured four top-25 finishes in the process. His accuracy off the tee and good overall putting will see him home

Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir -111 @ Simon Bold
Maybe it's because he is not the most accurate driver in the Tour or maybe it's just that he doesn't like this course, but Mike Weir has played in this event in each of the last three years and missed the cut on each occasion. A 61st place last week is not encouraging and he is opposed with one of the players expected to at least finish in the top-10

Adding 72-hole plays:

Glen Day to beat John Daly -111 @ Simon Bold
Adding another unit. Looks a top play of the week

Phil Mickelson to beat Ernie Els -115 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Els won this event in 1995, but has been an infrequent and poor visitor since. Just twice and on those occasions he finished 18th (1996) and 63rd (1998). He will be dismayed by his inability to catch a falling Mickelson last week and he is expected to lose this match to someone who does have a proven record in this event

Vijay Singh to beat Ernie Els -110 @ Moneyplays
If one of the outright picks is chosen to oppose Els, then it is right that one of the other ones is also chosen. Singh may have been just as infrequent a visitor as Els, but he is in great form and comes into the event rested

Justin Leonard to beat Robert Allenby -111 @ Simon Bold
Out of form and with no course form, this is a good time to oppose Allenby. Leonard does have a decent course history despite the missed cut last year and comes into the event off a 4th place finish in Houston. He does tend to play his better golf in the South

Stuart Appleby to beat Tommy Armour -111 @ Simon Bold
Strange matchup, though Armour has finished 10th and 25th in this event in the last three years. Still hard to see him repeating that feat as he is currently struggling to make the cut each week. Appleby is no certainty to make the cut but at -111 is much the better player

Five Dimes have once again offered a line for every matchup listed on this site   There are no 1st round plays given the two-course setup. We'll wait and hope to take advantage in the 2nd round!

Update:

No 1st round plays and there is a huge disparity in the scoring on the two courses so will update state of plays after the 2nd round. Just worth reporting though that the average score yesterday on the TPC was 70.92 and on Cottonwood Valley it was 69.01, a huge differential. Even when accounting for player quality on each course using the Sagarin ratings, the differential is still 1.72 shots   On that basis, time to take advantage of some lines that don't take this into account!

2nd round plays:

Greg Chalmers to beat Stuart Appleby -130 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

John Daly to beat Fred Couples +115 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Steve Flesch +110 @ GoTo Casino [3 units]

Brian Gay to beat Scott Verplank +118 @ Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat Scott Verplank -105 @ Moneyplays

2nd round update: 0-5-0 and -9.65 units

Yikes! Where did that day come from? Yesterday, Cottonwood Valley played almost two shots easier than the TPC course; today it was only 0.5 shots! Still an advantage, though very small, and still the plays stunk. Chalmers lost to Appleby by two, Daly lost to Couples by eight, Maruyama lost to Flesch by two, Gay lost to Verplank by one and Sutton lost to Verplank by three. Ugly!

At least there's better news with the 72-hole plays. Three of the six plays were decided at the cut and all were winners. Day beat Daly by eight, Mickelson beat Els by seven and Singh beat Els by fourteen. In the other three, Furyk trails Weir by four, Leonard leads Appleby by one and Appleby trails Armour by two. In the outrights, Furyk and Mickelson recovered to make the cut, but still have a lot to make up on the leaders, while Singh is best-placed in 3rd position.

Back in the morning with the 3rd round plays

3rd round plays:

Bob May to beat Jason Gore -138 @ Simon Bold [2 units]

Phil Mickelson to beat Hal Sutton -150 @ Moneyplays

Tiger Woods to beat Vijay Singh -180 @ Sportfanatik

No great value out there today IMO

3rd round update: 1-2-0 and -1.30 units

Having a real tough time with the 18-hole plays this week! May did at least record a four-shot win for the double play, but they were costly losses with Mickelson and Woods, both lost by two shots. In the 72-hole plays that remain, Furyk trails Weir by five, Leonard leads Appleby by six and Appleby trails Armour by two. As in Europe, the best chance of a profitable week is with the outrights and Singh lies just one shot out of the lead in 3rd place. The other two have no chance: Furyk is 35th and Mickelson 56th.

4th round plays:

Glen Day to beat Tommy Armour +115 @ Moneyplays

Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -160 @ Sportfanatik [3 units]

Tiger Woods to beat Phil Mickelson -160 @ Carib

Nick Price to beat Brian Watts -150 @ WSEX

Final update: 4-0-0 and +6.15 units for the day; 9-9-0 and -1.02 units for the week

Final day sweep, but given Friday's plays and results elsewhere today, hard to get enthusiastic about it! Day beat Armour by one, Woods beat Garcia by two and Mickelson by three, while Price beat Watts by one. Saved some face with those wins. In the remaining 72-hole plays, Furyk lost to Weir by four, Leonard beat Allenby by eight and Appleby lost to Armour by four.

Update on outrights: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Singh proved just how ridiculous the PGA Tour putting stats really are today. This week he reverted back to type and it cost him a run at this title. His putting was painful to watch when it was featured today and he fell back to 11th overall. Mickelson and Furyk finished well out of the place positions in 28th and 37th respectively.

Roll on tomorrow and the start of a new week