MasterCard Colonial

This is "Hogan's Alley", so called for the way that Ben Hogan dominated the event in the 1940s and 1950s. He won the event five times and at one time held practically every tournament record. Those records have since gone, but the venue remains the same. Colonial Country Club has the distinction of being the longest running current site of any tournament on the PGA Tour: it all began in 1946 when, of course, Hogan won the inaugural event.

Despite the loss of Woods and Els to Germany, this is a high quality field and an excellent tournament is expected. It is also the anniversary of Stewart Cink's spectacular collapse. It was his 27th birthday, he had strong support from the crowds which included his family and he held a seven-shot lead over Mickelson with nine holes to play despite having already suffered a hiccup around "The Horrible Horseshoe" (holes 3-5). He would lose the event by two shots, rather than Mickelson win it, and he has only had one top-5 finish since, whereas Mickelson's year just got better and better, outside the Majors.

Widely acclaimed, this is the ultimate shot-maker's course. A short, tight par-70 where the emphasis is on keeping the ball in play. There are only two par-fives and the usually narrow fairways have been narrowed further in recent years, but interestingly, the small Bentgrass greens have also been reduced in size. At 5,000 square feet, they are significantly smaller than the Tour average. If the Texas winds blow then this is very challenging course - it has hosted the US Open and the TPC in the past - that could see some very large scores. When Jeff Sluman has the best recent course form - 2nd, 13th, 3rd, 2nd and 13th since 1996 - the course is obviously in the mould of a US Open setup.

The three outright selections are Jim Furyk, Nick Price and David Toms. Furyk had apparently injured his wrist last week and maybe it was more hypochondria than real for after shooting an initial 76, he then shot three rounds in the 60s to close. He returns to a course that is well-suited to his customary fade and where he has recorded three top-10 finishes in the last four years, including 2nd in 1998. Definitely doesn't win as often as he should, but at 25/1 represents a decent chance for a profitable investment.

Nick Price doesn't really have the ball flight for this course and maybe that explains his infrequent visits here over the past few years, but he is a former winner of this event (1994) and revels in US Open style conditions. The emphasis on accuracy over putting suits Price and he should be able to retain the form of last week that saw him finish 3rd and could have been much better but for the very late birdie-fest from Damron and Verplank.

David Toms is the final choice and there can be no doubt about his form. He won the Compaq Classic with a closing round of 64 to painfully wrest the title away from our selection, Mickelson, and followed that with an impressive 11th last week that included a 62 in the 3rd round when he could be forgiven for his slow start. He finished 4th last year and like the other two selections, ranks in the top-20 of the Tour's driving accuracy stats so is well-suited to this course.

Outright plays:

Jim Furyk to win 25/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

Nick Price to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey

David Toms to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet247

72-hole plays:

Stewart Cink to beat Robert Damron -111 @ Simon Bold
Damron has never played well on this course and coming off his dramatic win last week, he is expected to suffer a fallout this week. Cink's form has been very erratic this year, but barring last year's collapse he does have a very good record at Colonial and should easily make the cut

Scott Verplank to beat Robert Damron -150 @ Sporting Odds [3 units]
Verplank's course form is almost as good as Cink's and he has been much more consistent this year. There is a chance of an adverse reaction to his playoff defeat last week, but that could apply to both and their histories in this event are extremely different. Damron should struggle to make the cut this week

Nick Price to beat Brad Faxon -140 @ Moneyplays
Faxon's form has been somewhat erratic of late, but he did finish 11th last week. However, this course is not one for putting specialists, the event will be won elsewhere and this will favor Price far more

Scott Verplank to beat Brad Faxon -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Same as above. Excellent form from Verplank should be more than enough to beat Faxon. The only doubt is over his reaction to his playoff defeat

Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir -111 @ Simon Bold
Weir has been very impressive at times this year, but it is easy to oppose someone who ranks outside the top-100 in driving accuracy, this week at least. With Furyk inside the top-15 in both fairways hit and greens in regulation, he should do well here, barring injury

1st round plays:

Nick Price to beat Brad Faxon -137 @ Five Dimes

Tom Lehman to beat Jesper Parnevik -112 @ Five Dimes

Kirk Triplett to beat Kenny Perry -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 3-0-0 and +3.00 units

A nice way to start the week   Convincing wins for all three as the morning players enjoyed the easier conditions. Price beat Faxon by four, Lehman beat Parnevik by three and Triplett beat Perry by four. The 72-hole plays stand 3-2-0 after 18 holes with the only losses to Damron. He holds a one-shot lead over Cink and a four-shot lead over Verplank. However, better news with opposing Faxon who trails Price by four shots and Verplank by one. In the other match, Furyk leads Weir by five.

Even a good day on the outrights. Furyk leads the event alongside Mickelson, while Toms is 4th. Only Price shot over-par of the picks on a day when scoring was difficult because of course. What a refreshing change!

2nd round plays:

Stewart Cink to beat Jim Furyk +118 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Bob Tway to beat Chris DiMarco +120 @ Five Dimes

Brian Watts to beat Steve Flesch +103 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Billy Mayfair to beat Scott McCarron -105 @ Five Dimes

Vijay Singh to beat Phil Mickelson -107 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-2-1 and +0.69 units

Break-even day as the largest dogs win and the only losses were by one shot. Cink dropped four shots in his last five holes, but still limped home one shot ahead of Furyk, while Watts lost by one shot to Flesch in the other 3-unit play. In the rest, Tway beat DiMarco by four, Mayfair lost to McCarron by one and Singh and Mickelson were tied.

Three of the five 72-hole plays were decided at the cut, but only one was a winner. Price and Faxon both missed the cut, but Price had taken one shot less. The bad news was that Verplank withdrew. The particularly bad news was that the two Verplank plays were the strongest of the 72-hole plays: 5 units on two plays One of his opponents, Brad Faxon missed the cut, while Damron finished two shots inside the cut mark, but that's academic now. In the remaining plays, a collapsing Cink finished the 2nd round level with Damron and Furyk leads Weir by five.

Of the outrights, Price missed the cut by one and both Furyk and Toms went through difficult stretches today and fell off the leaderboard. But in 11th and 14th position respectively they are still very much in contention.

3rd round plays:

Vijay Singh to beat Jose Coceres -143 @ Easybets

Fred Funk to beat Per-Ulrik Johansson -125 @ Surrey

Phil Mickelson -1.5 strokes to beat Corey Pavin @ WSEX [2 units]

3rd round update: 3-0-0 and +4.00 units

Two sweeps in three days - we might yet overcome the Verplank debacle! Both Singh and Funk finished one shot ahead of their opponents, but Mickelson was much more convincing. He beat Pavin by seven shots. In the 72-hole plays, both are now leading. Cink is six shots ahead of Damron and Furyk is four ahead of Weir. Finally, in the outrights, Toms came home in 31 to secure be 4th after 54 holes, while Furyk is only two shots out of a place position in 12th.

4th round plays:

Jim Furyk to beat Jesper Parnevik -125 @ Sportfanatik

David Toms to beat Shigeki Maruyama -115 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Phil Mickelson -1.5 strokes to beat Brett Quigley -115 @ WSEX [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Jesper Parnevik -130 @ Moneyplays

Will look at the two-ball matches in the morning

Adding 4th round plays:

Glen Day to beat Mike Sposa -115 @ Olympic [2 units]

Scott Dunlap to beat Geoff Ogilvy +100 @ Easybets [2 units]

Jim Furyk to beat Sergio Garcia -120 @ Carib

Final update: 2-3-2 and -0.45 units for the day; 13-7-3 and +3.52 units for the week

Break-even day to close an eventful week. The results: Furyk lost to Parnevik by four and to Garcia by nine; Toms tied with Maruyama; Mickelson beat Quigley by three, Singh tied with Parnevik; Day beat Sposa by four and Dunlap lost to Ogilvy by four. Both remaining 72-hole plays won though. Cink beat Damron by six and Furyk beat Weir by seven.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Toms never made any headway on the leaders, but still finished one shot out of a place finish   Furyk fared even worse and finished in 26th, while Price had earlier missed the cut. This is the first time this year that the none of the outrights on any of Tours have secured any return. But of the twelve outright plays, barring Price and Watson, the worst-placed of the other ten was 26th