Compaq Classic

The Tour moves to New Orleans this week for the Compaq Classic and a good quality field is on view as well. Five of the top-10 in the world ranking tee it up at English Turn and maybe the event's history of producing first-time winners may change. This is largely the result of scheduling: largely because it was the pre-Masters event, it was consistently ignored by the top players. The change of schedule two years ago is beginning to erase that.

As with any Jack Nicklaus designed course, there is an emphasis on length and an ability to hit a high ball, the importance of which was increased with the later staging of the event. However, the Bermuda greens are rather small and being difficult to hold when the course is playing fast and running, a good short game is vital as well. With the distinction of being the only PGA Tour course to feature water on every hole and having two of the hardest holes on Tour in the 17th and 18th, this is an excellent test of golf. 

The three selections this week are Phil Mickelson, Scott Hoch and Steve Flesch. In an event in which infrequent visitors play well, the Mickelson fits the bill in that respect as well. In his only appearance, he finished 17th last year and has the basic game for a Nicklaus course: a high draw for a lefty. His deftness around the green will be called upon this week and having been rested since the Masters, he should be a strong contender this week and is tipped to win outright.

The other two plays are simply to finish in the top-4 and despite last week, that is justifiable on the basis of nerve! Scott Hoch and Steve Flesch are the two players concerned. Hoch is a former winner of this event - 19 years ago - and has an extremely consistent record on this course. He has played here seven times in the last ten years and his worst finish has been 21st! He comes off a win last week and so it would be too much to expect him to repeat the feat, but another good showing is expected and place-only is the play.

Steve Flesch has just a remarkable a record at English Turn as Hoch. He has played here three times and has finished 6th, 2nd, 2nd, with every round under par! He comes here off an inspired 63 to finish 7th in the WorldCom Classic three weeks ago and will be relishing the return to his most successful event. He is yet to win a PGA Tour event and has shown enough fragility down the stretch to ensure that the place-only play is the best angle this week.

Outright plays:

Phil Mickelson to win 9/1 @ Easybets

Scott Hoch to finish in the top-four 7/1 @ Olympic

Steve Flesch to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Olympic

72-hole plays:

Steve Lowery to beat Aaron Baddeley -143 @ Five Dimes

Nick Price to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Carlos Franco -118 @ Easybets

Phil Mickelson to beat Joe Durant -150 @ Moneyplays

Phil Mickelson to beat Ernie Els -130 @ Moneyplays

Hal Sutton to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ BlueSq [2 units]

Hal Sutton to beat Jerry Kelly -125 @ Moneyplays

1st round plays:

David Duval to beat Ernie Els -114 @ Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat Ernie Els -105 @ Five Dimes

Steve Flesch to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 0-2-1 and -2.39 units

Geez! How did that day end a losing one?? Flesch and Duval were both 5-under-par on the 16th tee; Flesch closed with three bogeys and Duval with two. To add insult to injury, both Franco and Els birdied the last hole which ranked the hardest hole of the day. It meant a one-shot loss for Flesch against Franco and a tie for Sutton against Els. Duval's collapse and Els late birdie meant a two-shot loss for Duval

Better news with the 72-hole plays: all but one lead after 18 holes. Lowery leads Baddeley by two, Price leads Baddeley by four, Calc trails Franco by two, Mickelson leads Durant and Els by one, while Sutton leads Franco by two and Kelly by one. Mickelson is best-placed of the outrights in 7th, but the other two are still in contention as Stankowski will come back to the pack today.

3rd round plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Jerry Kelly -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris DiMarco to beat Scott Verplank -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Kevin Sutherland to beat Frank Lickliter -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Frank Lickliter to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -130 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Kevin Sutherland to beat David Toms -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 4-1-0 and +7.80 units

The best way to redress some frustration about the 1st round plays! Kelly inflicted a three-shot defeat on Dimarco in the only loss of the day, but elsewhere there were convincing wins. DiMarco beat Verplank by three, Sutherland beat Lickliter by two and Toms by four, while Lickliter beat Zoeller by six.

Three of the 72-hole plays were decided at the cut and two were winners. Baddeley missed the cut and so handed nine-shot victories to Lowery and Price. The only loser was Calc who was one shot too many for the cut and was six shots behind Franco at the time. In the remaining plays, Mickelson leads Durant by six and Els by four, but Sutton trails Franco by three and Kelly by five.

In the outrights, Flesch missed the cut and Hoch lies a distant 46th, but Mickelson is joint leader with Brian Gay so will be a short favorite going into the weekend - 9/1 looks a good buy right now!

3rd round plays:

Phil Mickelson to beat Harrison Frazar -160 @ WSEX

Phil Mickelson to beat Brian Gay -150 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

David Duval to beat Carlos Franco -115 @ Moneyplays

Ernie Els to beat Brian Watts -135 @ Moneyplays

3rd round update: 4-0-0 and +6.00 units

SWEEP!!!   Turning into a very nice tournament! Mickelson beat Frazar by two and Gay by six shots, while Els beat Watts by six and Duval edged home one shot ahead of Franco when there was never more than a shot between them all day. Mickelson's 20-under-par total puts him ten ahead of Durant and five ahead of Els in the 72-hole plays, while Sutton trails in both of his, but only by very manageable margins: one shot to Franco and two to Kelly.

Even the outrights look much more favorable after today. Mickelson takes a three-shot lead into the final round and Hoch's 63 moved him up 39 places to 7th and just two shots out of the top-4 place needed. As good a day as they come

Early 4th round plays:

Nick Price to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Olympic

Scott Verplank to beat Carlos Franco -108 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Paul Stankowski to beat Ted Tryba -115 @ Olympic [2 units]

Adding:

David Duval to beat Jerry Kelly -145 @ Sportfanatik or other starnet books [2 units]

Kirk Triplett to beat Carlos Franco +100 @ Carib

Frank Lickliter to beat Chris Smith -110 @ Carib [2 units]

BTW, Price over Franco is -110 @ Moneyplays   Waiting for more lines to appear for the two-ball matches, will post at least one more play later.

Final update: 4-1-1 and +3.80 units for the day; 16-7-2 and +16.58 units for the week

Three great days out of four as only Lickliter loses on the final day. He did shoot 68 but was outgunned by two shots by an impressive Smith. Duval tied with Kelly, but Price beat Franco by three, Verplank beat Franco by one, Stankowski beat Tryba by two and Triplett beat Franco by one.Simply forgot to post the two-ball play (May -111 over Simpson) and it would have been an easy winner, but no complaints on an otherwise excellent week. To summarize the remaining 72-hole plays, Mickelson beat Durant by six and Els by one, while Sutton lost to Franco by one and Kelly by five.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Sorry display from Mickelson as he let a three-shot overnight lead slip. He finished 2nd and that meant a loss on the win-only play   Hoch was too slow off the blocks today and finished 11th, four shots away from the win, while Flesch had already taken the weekend off.