Genuity Championship

The start of the Florida Swing normally brings more predictable weather. After a week when all of the top-6 on the leaderboard could be found at odds of 80/1 and above before the event, a more predictable leaderboard is the main request this week! Last week's six-man playoff may have been exciting and it the record books are worth anything, then maybe we could face the same chaos this week. Since the opening Doral-Ryder Open in 1962, 26 of the 39 tournaments have been decided by a single stroke or less. It includes one of those famous 1990s duels between Faldo and Norman - Faldo won in 1995 by a shot after Norman had hooked his second shot into the water on the last hole.

The course has been much-maligned in recent years since Ray Floyd attempted to make the course tougher after the 1996 event. It has not been popular and many of the 'name' players have stayed away and have done so again this year. Players that are here include Els and Singh who make the journey from other continents and Love who wishes he had been on another continent last Sunday. They tackle a course that is still relatively easy by Tour standards, though it does boast a particularly difficult finishing hole if the wind gets up. With water on nine of the holes, a focus on accurate driving is needed this week and with Tifdwarf Bermudagrass on the greens, it has favoured players from Florida or Australia in the past.

With the travelling requirements of the Els and Singh, questions over Love's mental strength after last weeks collapse and questions over Duval's choice of irons this week, this looks to be a fairly open event and these four are ignored given the low odds on them. Instead Jim Furyk, Nick Price and Scott Verplank are this week's picks. Furyk held the course record with 62 until Ames bettered it by one last year, but he made his own mark last year by fazing Langham and taking the title. It added to a 9th place finish on his previous visit despite an opening 77. He comes to the event rested and having already won once on Bermuda greens already this year at the Mercedes Championship. A good chance for an outright win.

Nick Price joins Furyk as one of the more accurate drivers on Tour and if his putter is behaving he can be a real title contender. It did last week, but not on the Sunday, but the grainy Bermuda greens are his preferred surface. He may have fallen back on Sunday but that makes two top-20 finishes from his two PGA Tour starts. He has a good record in this event with top-10 finishes in 3 of the last 4 years and that includes 2nd in 1997 and 3rd last year. Buoyed by at least contending last week, he could repeat last year's performance and gain a place finish.

Scott Verplank completes a trio of straight-hitting picks. He salvaged a matchup win last week with a good closing round, but was never in the tournament. That 33rd place finish did break his run of two 4th place finishes and it can be assumed that his game is still in great shape. He did finish 6th here last year and like Price stands a decent chance of securing a place finish.

Outright plays:

Jim Furyk to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

Nick Price to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetSmart

Scott Verplank to win 50/1 e.w. @ Quickflutter

72-hole plays:

David Duval to beat Jerry Kelly -150 @ CRIS
Normally I wouldn't touch Duval in matchups until there was more evidence of consistency with his irons, but the bait has been taken with this one, trap or not. Kelly did finish 8th last week, but he does not play well on this course. Since it was tightened he has missed the cut once and finished 57th; in the same time Duval has finished 23rd and 4th. This course does not suit Kelly's errant driving and Duval should win this with ease whatever his ease with this clubs

Chris Perry to beat Shigeki Maruyama -110 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]
Maruyama played surprisingly well on this course last year when making his debut at the Blue Monster, but he tailed away badly over the weekend whereas Perry remained in contention throughout despite the poor weather. He seemed to have his game under control and could finish very high up the leaderboard this week in better weather. I doubt Maruyama will repeat last year's feat, his driving is simply far too wild for this course

Adding:

David Toms to beat Shigeki Maruyama -113 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Maruyama again and with someone who is an accurate rather than long driver, has a 3rd place finish on this course two years ago and has been in excellent form all season. Toms shouldn't be too far away from the top-20 this week

1st round plays:

Greg Norman to beat Frank Nobilo -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Franklin Langham to beat Greg Chalmers -112 @ Five Dimes

Len Mattiace to beat Jim Carter -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jim Furyk to beat Nick Price -110 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-2-0 and -2.72 units

Not a good way to start the tournament. Both Langham and Mattiace play very poorly to shoot over-par in the morning conditions - they did the same course as Weir yesterday! They both lost by six shots. In the first two-unit play, Norman pulled out before teeing off as he was feeling unwell. At least he didn't quit during the round, but it should have been very easy to beat Nobilo's even-par score. The only win was with Furyk who beat Price by two. No-one leading in the 72-hole plays yet, but the picks all had afternoon tee-times, so expect them to perform much better with the early start today.

2nd round plays:

Davis Love to beat Ernie Els -120 @ Five Dimes

Davis Love to beat Vijay Singh -130 @ Five Dimes

David Duval to beat Jerry Kelly -145 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Shigeki Maruyama -135 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

David Toms to beat Shigeki Maruyama -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Stewart Cink to beat Fred Funk -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

2nd round update: 3-2-1 and -2.35 units

He did it last week and he's doing it again! Maruyama is making me pay for under-rating him: he recorded two shots wins against Perry, the 3-unit play of the day, and Toms, a 2-unit play   The rest were fine. Love beat Els and Singh by one, Duval tied with Kelly, and Cink beat Funk by two.

Maruyama's destructive influence also extended to the 72-hole plays and he holds a 3-shot lead over Perry and 5-shot lead over Toms. In the other play, Duval and Kelly are still tied. At least everyone has another 36 holes to find victory. No real joy in the outrights yet, Furyk is 62nd, Price 39th and Verplank 26th.

3rd round plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Chris Perry -115 @ Five Dimes

Steve Stricker to beat Doug Dunakey -143 @ DAS [3 units]

John Huston to beat David Toms -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Also looking at Sluman over Smith in the two-ball betting, but will wait for the Euro lines to appear on that one.

3rd round update: 2-1-0 and +4.85 units

Covered virtually all the losses from the first two days with the victories from the 3-unit plays. Stricker beat Dunakey by eight and Huston beat Toms by one. In the other play, Appleby shot a poor over-par round to lose to Perry by four and should have taken the plunge on Sluman - he beat Smith by seven.

In the 72-hole plays, Duval now trails Kelly by six, Perry leads Maruyama by one and Toms trails Maruyama by two, an improvement on yesterday. The outrights also improved, though not to a winning position. Verplank and Furyk took advantage of the calmer morning conditions to jump to 7th place, while Price is probably too far behind in 32nd.

4th round plays:

Esteban Toledo to beat Stephen Ames +105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Scott Verplank to beat Stephen Ames -145 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]

All three have made large jumps up the leaderboard to the top-10, but their previous 4th round records in these circumstances are very different. Four of five times in the last three years Ames has shot over par when in the top-10 after the 3rd round after a significant move and that includes two 78s. For the other two, Toledo has show under par in the 4th round in all occasions and Verplank has only shot over par once in the 4th round in nine such occasions, ignoring his 73 in the Colonial in May 1999 when he was the 3rd round leader.

Final update: 2-0-0 and +5.15 units for the day; 10-6-1 and +6.43 units for the week

Both plays won easily in the final round as Ames withdrew after half-a-dozen holes when 3-over-par. I don't know the reasons for his withdrawal, but with both Toledo and Verplank recording level-par rounds they should have won easily anyway. A second successive Sunday collapse by Maruyama helped two of the 72-hole matchups to victory: Perry won by five and Toms won by six. Duval looked as if he might catch Kelly at one point, but faded badly at the end to end five shots back. A bad pick.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

A little unfortunate here with all three selections in the top-20, but not in the top-5. Price finished 7th, Verplank 12th and Furyk 17th. Each had chances, but none converted.