Greater Greensboro Classic

For the second week running, the emphasis is on keeping the ball in play with Forest Oaks famous for its brutal rough. It may even mean a leaderboard similar to last week as well. The field is certainly familiar and the wilder (off the tee!) and more famous names such as Woods, Singh, Mickelson, Duval and Love are all absent. There is a lack of big name players this week and it means there are rather too many single-figure odds around as well!

Apart from a requirement to hit the fairway, good putting skills are necessary as the greens are only slightly larger than the Tour average, but they are very undulating and frequently tiered and on the greens, decent lag putting is a must, particularly as this week's surfaces are Bentgrass after the Tour's one-week stop on Bermuda.

The outright plays this week are Hal Sutton, Mark Calcavecchia and Scott McCarron. With a shortage of headline players this week, the odds on these three somewhat smaller than usual. Winning back-to-back events is a rare feat on the PGA Tour, but in a weak field and with a renewed Hal Sutton - life definitely did begin again at 40 for Hal - he is 2nd only to Tiger in the mental toughness necessary to carry off such a feat. In the last three years, Sutton has finished 8th, 17th and 1st in this event and currently stands 12th in driving accuracy and 1st in greens in regulation on the PGA Tour stats. He lead from the front last year and showed his strength on Sunday. On a course suited to his game, this title will have to be wrestled from his grasp.

Getting the nod over Jim Furyk because of his frustrating knack of finishing in the top-10, but not getting placed (top-5), Mark Calcavecchia is another pick for whom the adjective "renewed" can be applied. Last year, Calc only played in this event because he wasn't invited to the Masters and was with his 3rd place finish that his decided to stick with his new putting technique. Now he ranks 6th in putting average on the Tour stats and with a high number of greens hit in regulation (ranked 9th), it is clear that his game is certainly renewed. He managed to avoid the difficult conditions of last week and should be a strong contender for Sutton's crown.

To complete a trio of uncomfortably short-priced picks, Scott McCarron completes the bill. He hasn't played since winning the BellSouth Classic four weeks ago, but with a worst place of 44th from ten starts this season, he comes into this event in tremendous form and without the pressure of trying to play too many tournaments. Like Calc, the secret to his form has been his short game - he ranks 12th in greens in regulation and 16th in putting average - while the rest of his game also ranks highly in the stats. With a respectable 21st place finish on his only appearance in this event (2000), he should not be too far from the leaderboard and complete a trio of picks who have already won this year.

Outright plays:

Hal Sutton to win 10/1 @ Carib

Mark Calcavecchia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Scott McCarron to win 25/1 e.w. @ Surrey

72-hole plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Stewart Cink -125 @ Sportfanatik 
A course history of 40th and a missed cut is not particularly encouraging for Cink and with a rather inaccurate driver, he is not likely to be a serious challenger this week. For Calc, on the other hand, it would be a big surprise if he were to finish the week outside the top-10

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Scott Hoch -125 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Hoch's history at this course is even worse! Has missed the last four cuts here and it is not surprising that he is an infrequent visitor to Forest Oaks. Other than 4th in 1988, his best finish here has been 35th, which is surprising given the nature of the course. He seems to be back on the money-accumulation train and he should make another top-25, but it is hard to see him finishing any higher on this course

Brad Elder to beat Geoff Ogilvy -120 @ Victor Chandler
One of golf's future stars should be able to match his previous performance on this course: 21st last year. He is reasonably accurate and has a good overall game and should be backed against the big-hitting Australian, Geoff Ogilvy. In the wide spaces for the Honda Classic he finished 2nd, but has since struggled to 51st at Bay Hill and missed the cut at the WorldCom Classic. Can't see him doing much better on this tight track

Should have some plays later when more lines are offered

1st round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat K.J. Choi -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Joel Edwards to beat Aaron Baddeley -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Stewart Cink -123 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Skip Kendall to beat Steve Stricker -120 @ Five Dimes 

Adding 72-hole play:

Joel Edwards to beat Aaron Baddeley -120 @ Five Dimes
Combining finishes of 28th and 13th in the past two weeks with 5th at the Honda Classic last month and 28th on this course last year makes Joel Edwards seem a decent contender for a position on the leaderboard this week. To be paired against Baddeley who has an awful record on the PGA Tour is a bonus and is not passed up

Adding another:

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
8th last year and in reasonable, if not spectacular, form, the Japanese player should have little difficulty in making the cut and winning this mismatch

1st round update: 1-3-0 and -5.19 units

Truly awful first day and very easy to blame the secretive lack of rough at the course which transformed its nature. The only winner on day one was Ames who beat Choi by four shots, in the other round 1 plays, Edwards lost to Baddeley by three, Calcavecchia lost to Cink by two and Kendall lost to Stricker by two.

Every 72-hole match bet is losing after 18 holes! Calc trails Cink by two and Hoch by five, Elder trails Ogilvy by three, Edwards trails Baddeley by three and Maruyama trails Baddeley by eight. At least everyone, and Sutton and McCarron in particular, are still in the hunt for outright wins. Might need them again!

2nd round plays:

Brad Elder to beat Jonathan Kaye -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Brad Elder to beat Frank Nobilo -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Dudley Hart -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 1-1-1 and -0.45 units

Split the plays as Perry shoots 69 to beat Hart by one, but Elder's 71 is two shots too many against Kaye and is only good enough for a tie against Nobilo who birdied two of the last three holes to catch Elder. At the cut, three of the five matchups are decided and they finish 1-1-1. Calcavecchia beat Cink by three, Elder tied with Ogilvy and Maruyama lost to Baddeley by seven. In the remaining two 72-hole plays, Calc trails Hoch by six and Edwards leads Baddeley by two. Certainly an improvement over the 1st day standings!

All three outright plays made the cut, but Calc and Sutton are eight and seven shots out of the lead respectively. More encouraging is McCarron's performance. He lies 8th, three shots out of the lead and an unusually weak-looking leaderboard.

3rd round plays:

Dudley Hart to beat Rich Beem +100 @ WSEX [3 units]

Jerry Kelly to beat Rich Beem -135 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Fred Funk to beat Steve Elkington -145 @ Five Dimes

Jimmy Green to beat Phil Tataurangi -135 @ Five Dimes

Scott Verplank to beat Frank Nobilo -120 @ Sportfanatik and other Starnet books

Jim Furyk to beat Ted Tryba -175 @ Easybets

3rd round update: 3-2-1 and +1.45 units

Profitable day, but Hart's missed 4-foot putt on the last was costly. It meant he only tied with Beem, though Kelly did have a three-shot victory over the Texab. There were wins for Funk and Furyk by three and seven shots respectively. However, Green lost by four and Verplank lost by two to make a profitable week appear rather elusive. That was not helped by a marked deterioration in the two 72-hole and outright plays. Calc fell to eight shots behind Hoch and Edwards lost his lead over Baddeley; he now trails by five, while there is very little prospect of a return from the outrights in this tournament.

Early 4th round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Andrew Magee -115 @ Five Dimes

Jim Furyk to beat Aaron Baddeley -150 @ WSEX [3 units]

Adding 4th round plays:

Jim Furyk to beat Olin Browne -125 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Kevin Sutherland to beat Mike Sposa -110 @ Carib

Esteban Toledo to beat Trevor Dodds +110 @ Sportingbet [2 units]

Donnie Hammond to beat Cliff Kresge +137 @ Easybets

72-hole continuation plays:

Fred Funk to beat Scott Verplank +115 @ Olympic [2 units] - one-shot lead

Andrew Magee to beat Steve Stricker -135 @ Olympic [2 units] - two-shot lead

Final update: 5-2-1 and +3.87 units for the day; 12-10-4 and -3.04 units for the week

Damn continuation plays! Chased the value and it cost me a winning week on the matchups   Both Funk and Magee surrendered overnight leads to lose by two and three shots respectively. The standard plays had a great day! Ames beat Magee by four, Furyk beat Baddeley by nine and tied with Browne, Sutherland beat Sposa by two, Toledo beat Dodds by four and Hammond beat Kresge by three.

Even the 72-hole plays improved on the day as Baddeley had a horrible 78 and hand a one-shot victory to Edwards. Calc lost to the eventual loser, Scott Hoch, by ten shots.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Very unpredictable event typified by the winner being a player who has missed the last four cuts here and lambasted the course for being set-up too easy   Nevertheless, the three picks were never in contention. McCarron finished 19th, Sutton finished 24th and Calc finished 36th.