Greater Hartford Open

Once again Mickelson tees it up when Tiger is absent and as such he heads the field, but having finished in the top-3 in eight events this year and only won once, he is unbackable even without Tiger in the field. Rated as one of the top-100 courses in the United States, it is not particularly long with the primary test being to hit the small, Bentgrass greens which are typically very slick. Accurate drivers and good scramblers typically do well here, though the penalties are not severe and unless the weather intervenes for a sixth straight week, this should be another very low scoring event at River Highlands.

The three outright picks are Stewart Cink, Paul Azinger and Kirk Triplett. Cink does fit the bill of the straight-hitting player who is supposed to be suited to this course, but with career finishes of 18th, 1st, 2nd, 8th and 14th and a scoring average of 67.30, he is obviously well-suited to River Highlands. With a gutsy 3rd last week after the way he missed out on the playoff at the US Open, he comes into the event in better shape than I would have imagined and looks the form player this week.

Azinger may not have the course form of Cink, though he did win this event on this course in 1987 and 1989 when it called the TPC of Connecticut. However, the resurgence of his game in the past two years is such that 16th place last week was quite a disappointment. With accuracy rather than power a hallmark of his game, he should feature on the leaderboard quite a lot again this week.

The third pick is another is decent course form. He has had three top-10 finished in the last seven years, including 3rd place last year when he led after the first round, fell back in the 2nd and then 61 in the 3rd, a new course record. He signalled a return to form at the US Open with a 7th place finish and at inflated odds, he would make a very profitable investment if only a top-5 finish were achieved.

Outright plays:

Stewart Cink to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Bet247 or Sports.com

Paul Azinger to win 25/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports or Sports.com

Kirk Triplett to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sports.com

72-hole plays:

Richie Coughlan to beat Emanuele Canonica +105 @ Camelot [2 units]
Strong play against the big-hitting Italian whose length will be of little use at River Highlands. He has played 13 PGA Tour events this year, has missed the cut 10 times and has finished 7th, 82nd and 83rd in the other three. Coughlan is much more likely to make the cut

Dudley Hart to beat John Daly -120 @ Camelot
Another play against a big-hitter who will not be suited to this course. Despite some decent finishes this year, Daly remains one to oppose, especially against players who have won on Tour

Chris DiMarco to beat Chris Smith -133 @ Easybets
Opposing Smith again and apart from a big drop in form, Smith also has no course form either. When compared to DiMarco who has top-25 finishes on this course in his three visits, including 5th last year, and is in a rich vein of form, the selection is clearcut

Jeff Sluman to beat Nick Faldo -111 @ UKBetting
Disappointing on his last two performances, Faldo is not expected to beat Sluman who has finished in the top-15 in three of his last four events and was in the top-25 last year

Brian Wilson to beat Ben Ferguson +125 @ Camelot [2 units]
Another expected to be decided before the weekend. Ferguson has missed his last five cuts and has made the cut just 4 times in 14 starts this season. Wilson's record for the season is not much better, but after a poor start to the season he has been making every other cut since the Bob Hope Classic

Blaine McCallister to beat Hunter Haas -185 @ Camelot [2 units]
Big price to pay, but completely different class of player at the moment. Haas has missed the cut in six of his last eight events and has not played this course before. McCallister won't win the event, but his stats which show strong driving accuracy and putting average figures, show he should at least make the cut again here

Scott Verplank to beat Chris Smith -110 @ Sports.com [2 units]
Opposing Smith again and with a player in form and with the perfect game for this course. Verplank should finish in the top-20, whereas Smith could struggle to make the cut

1st round plays:

Jonathan Kaye to beat Cameron Beckman -110 @ Five Dimes

Jim Furyk to beat Mark Calcavecchia -105 @ Moneyplays

Brian Wilson to beat Ben Ferguson +125 @ Camelot [3 units]

Brian Gay to beat Chris Smith +110 @ GoTo Casino

Michael Muehr to beat David Morland -110 @ Camelot

1st round update: 3-1-1 and +2.05 units

Hugely disappointing day for one reason: Ferguson was recorded on the PGATour.com site as having shot 72, meaning a one-shot victory in the 3-unit play on Wilson. Only later was his score corrected to a 71 and it meant a push on the play of the day   The other results: Kaye/Beckman 8 up; Furyk/Calcavecchia 4 down; Gay/Smith 2 up; Muehr/Morland 2 up.

Needed that win as it ain't great elsewhere. The 72-hole plays stand 2-4-1 though the margins are close: Coughlan/Canonica 1 down; Hart/Daly 3 down; DiMarco/Smith 5 up; Sluman/Faldo 1 down; Wilson/Ferguson all square McCallister/Haas 3 up; Verplank/Smith 2 down. The outright selections also need to make up some ground with Cink and Azinger best placed at six shots behind the leader.

Back in the morning with 2nd round plays.

2nd round plays:

Jim Furyk to beat Mark Calcavecchia -118 @ Five Dimes

Glen Hnatiuk to beat Michael Clark -130 @ Camelot [2 units]

Joel Edwards to beat Joe Ogilvie -115 @ Camelot [2 units]

Brad Faxon to beat Hal Sutton -102 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Ted Tryba to beat Jean van de Velde +120 Camelot [3 units]

2nd round update: 2-3-0 and -4.34 units

Frustrating day with three convincing losses on the day's plays and some costly collapses on the 72-hole plays   The day's results: Furyk/Calcavecchia 1 up; Hnatiuk/Clark 2 up; Edwards/Ogilvie 3 down; Faxon/Sutton 5 down; Tryba/Velde 3 down.

In the 72-hole plays, three matches were decided at the cut and all three were losses. Coughlan had a poor 2nd round and finished 6 behind Canonica, but the difficult losses were those of Wilson and McCallister. Both were coasting head of their opponents until spectacular and costly collapses. Wilson finished two behind Ferguson and McCallister one behind Haas. In the live plays, they stand: Hart/Daly 4 up; DiMarco/Smith 4 up; Sluman/Faldo 3 up; Verplank/Smith 3 down. In the outrights Cink had a similar collapse and went out of the event, Triplett is a long way behind, leaving Azinger the best hope, only two shots out of the lead on a crowded leaderboard.

3rd round plays:

Dudley Hart to beat David Berganio -140 @ Intertops

Jerry Kelly to beat Doug Dunakey -125 @ Surrey

Joe Ogilvie to beat Doug Dunakey -125 @ Camelot [2 units]

Kenny Perry to beat Paul Gow -120 @ Centrebet

Kevin Sutherland to beat Geoff Ogilvy -110 @ BlueSq [2 units]

3rd round update: 3-2-0 and +2.40 units

Profitable day as both two-unit plays win to secure a decent return. Hart lost by six to Berganio, but both picks beat Berganio: Kelly by two shots and Ogilvie by one. Perry lost to Gow by two, but Sutherland edged out Gow by a single shot. The 72-hole plays remain 3-1-0: Hart/Daly 4 up; DiMarco/Smith 10 up; Sluman/Faldo 4 up; Verplank/Smith 2 down. In the outrights, Azinger and Triplett are in contention for a place finish, but will need great rounds tomorrow.

4th round plays:

Jonathan Kaye to beat Paul Gow -125 @ Camelot

Dudley Hart to beat Joe Ogilvie -115 @ Camelot

Final update: 1-1-0 and -0.15 units for the day; 13-10-1 and -2.74 units for the week

Stupid mistake to make! Thought the matchup was Dudley Hart and it was Jeff Hart against Ogilvie. Wouldn't have played it had I seen it correctly and the results bore that out. Dudley would have won by six; Jeff lost by one. In the other match, Kaye beat Gow by one. A sweep in the remaining 72-hole plays is a sweetener though. Verplank shot 61 to overtake Smith and beat him by five shots. In the rest, Hart beat Daly by six, DiMarco beat Smith by ten and Sluman beat Faldo by four. Would have been a good week but for those very costly plays that missed the cut!

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Triplett had a good last round to jump to 7th and Azinger finished 14th. Both were never really in the hunt for a place finish though. Cink missed the cut.