Honda Classic

As preparations for the Masters move into full swing, many of the leading players have again missed this event. Last year six of the top-30 in the World Rankings played at Heron Bay, this year there is a slight improvement to eight, with Mickelson the headline player by some distance. He has only played in this event once before - a missed cut in 1995 on a different course, so should be avoided as a single figure favorite. Maybe the headline player this week is Joe Durant, currently top of the Money List, but surely winning three in a row is beyond him.

The TPC at Heron Bay has hosted this event since 1997 and has always failed to attract the best fields. Proximity to the Masters is one reason, but also the course itself. Very flat and uninspiring is the general view, despite water coming into play on all 18 holes. Its openness can lead to severe problems with the winds and this was the case in 1999 when Eric Booker lost a five-shot lead over the back nine to Vijay Singh. Last year there were no such winds and it played as one of the easiest courses on Tour in 2000. Last year is possibly best remembered for Brian Gay's one-shot penalty on the penultimate hole. He was one shot behind Dudley Hart when his putt on the 17th hole stopped on the lip of the cup. He claimed the ball was moving and waited for it to drop. It did, but only 13 seconds and the rules dictate that he was only allowed 10 seconds. In true trial-by-television, he was not made aware of the penalty for another 20 minutes and the rest is history. The greens, by the way, are of the Bermuda strain.

Maybe it is a reflection of this event in general, but I cannot find anything inspiring in the field beyond the short-priced players. I have tried, but the three selections remain Mark Calcavecchia, Jim Furyk and Hal Sutton. Calc has won this event twice, in 1987 and on this course in 1998 and he is on a career-streak with his putter this year. He shot 60 en route to winning the Phoenix Open and defied a knee injury to finish 3rd in the Bob Hope. He had arthroscopic surgery two weeks ago to repair the tear in the medial meniscus in his left knee and is apparently eager to get back on the course to an event in which he has been an ever-present since 1987. Like Davis Love said last week, "when the putter is this hot you don't want to go home" and Calc looks a decent prospect to win here again assuming he is as fit as he says.

No fitness worries for Jim Furyk though. He comes off a reasonable finish at the Genuity when all but challenged on the last day. He has played this course twice before, finishing 4th last year and 12th in 1998 so his record here is one of the best on view this week. In a weak field, he just looks a class too high for the rest of the field and if the wind doesn't blow as strong as in 1999, the conditions should favor him.

The final pick is Hal Sutton who was extremely impressive last week, but never got into gear on Sunday. His indifferent form of the first two months of the season seems to be behind him and he is again looking a decent prospect for the TPC. In the meantime, he is obviously not a critic of Heron Bay as he has been an ever-present since its first staging here in 1997 and in the last two years he has finished 7th both times. Like Furyk, if the winds do not become too strong, he looks one of a not too many premier-quality players on view this week.

Outright plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or Surrey

Jim Furyk to win 16/1 e.w @ Victor Chandler

Hal Sutton to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

72-hole plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Ladbrokes
With just one round of twelve over par at Heron Bay, DiMarco looks a decent proposition on this course. His opponent, Chris Smith does not. He has played this course twice before, missing the cut in 1998 and finishing 78th in 1999. This is his sixth straight event and there is nothing here to suggest that his game can be raised this week.

Craig Parry to beat Geoff Ogilvy -118 @ Easybets
Both come here from decent finales to the Australasian Tour, but for Ogilvy this is his first visit to Heron Bay. For Parry, this is a return to a course for which he holds the course record (64), set in 1997 when he finished 5th. Should be a decisive edge.

Adding:

Hal Sutton to beat Dudley Hart -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Hart may be the defending champion, but he comes here following two missed cuts and a disqualification (when he was a selection!) in the last three weeks. That is no preparation for a first-time defending champion and headline pick, Hal Sutton, should win this with ease

Paul Stankowski to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Simon Bold
Again opposing Smith on the grounds listed above. This time Stank is the selection who has had a good record of at least making cuts of late, though the 2nd at the Bob Hope was rather unexpected. He has decent form on this course which includes 5th place in 1997 and should be in the top-half of the field on Sunday, whereas Smith is expected to be already on the practice ground

Adding:

Skip Kendall to beat John Daly -130 @ Moneyplays
Always look to oppose Daly even if he has a decent record on this track. When out of contention he can be relied on to freefall down the leaderboard and it should not be forgotten that Kendall has a decent record here as well. It was only a 3rd round 73 that caused him to finish down in 19th last year and he comes here after finishing 25th last week. If conditions are calm, Kendall's superior putter will give him a good week.

1st round plays:

Tim Herron to beat Greg Kraft -120 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Glen Day to beat K.J. Choi -125 @ Five Dimes

Carl Paulson to beat Robert Gamez +100 @ DAS

1st round update: 1-2 and -3.85 units

A convincing win and two 1-shot losses   Paulson beat Gamez by five, but both Herron and Day were edged out by one shot in a day of surprisingly calm winds. The 72-hole plays are split after the first round: Sutton leads Hart by one, Stankowski trails Smith by one, Dimarco trails Smith by two, Parry trails Ogilvy by eight and Kendall leads Daly by three.

2nd round plays:

Phil Mickelson to beat Tom Lehman -125 @ Five Dimes

Kenny Perry to beat Brad Elder -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Dudley Hart to beat Andrew Magee -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Steve Flesch to beat Paul Stankowski -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Stuart Appleby to beat Skip Kendall -105 @ Moneyplays

Gary Nicklaus to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -111 @ DAS

2nd round update: 3-2-1 and +2.39 units

Almost a very good day! Nicklaus always struggled against Zoeller and finished a 3-shot loser, but Flesch was edged out by one shot by Stankowski and Appleby dropped two shots over his closing holes havgin surged to the top of the leaderboard. His 70 was enough for only a push against Kendall. The three remaining plays won: Mickelson by two over Lehman, Perry by one over Elder and Hart by two over Magee.

No 72-hole plays were decided at the cut and just as well, with only the two-unit play on Sutton over Hart leading (by 4 shots). In the rest, Stankowski trails the pain of the week, Chris Smith by two and DiMarco trails him by seven, while Parry trails Ogilvy by five and Kendall trails Daly by two. The outrights could compensate though with Calcavecchia in 2nd place and Sutton in 9th. Furyk just made the cut on the mark.

3rd round plays:

Briny Baird to beat Kevin Johnson +125 @ Sportingbet [2 units]

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Chris Smith -138 @ Sportingbet [2 units]

John Cook to beat Steve Flesch +130 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Brian Gay to beat Dan Forsman -125 @ Five Dimes

Brian Gay to beat Craig Perks +100 @ Sportingbet [2 units]

Brian Gay to beat Paul Stankowski -113 @ Sportbet

Lee Janzen to beat Pete Jordan -145 @ Intertops [3 units]

3rd round update: 4-3-0 and +2.25 units

Disappointing result in truth - at one stage all seven matches were winning! Flesch had a great back nine to catch and overtake Cook by two, as did Forsman in overtaking Gay by three, while Gay let slip a one-shot advantage on the last when he failed to match Perk's birdie on the easy par-five and at Sportingbet a tie is a lost wager. Good size margins in the four wins though: three-shots for Calcavecchia, Janzen and Gay over Stankowski and four-shots for Baird.

No improvement in the 72-hole plays with only one ahead. They now stand: Sutton/Hart 6 up; Stankowski/Smith 4 down; DiMarco/Smith 6 down; Parry/Ogilvy 11 down; Kendall/Daly 2 down. Still a chance of a profit with the outright plays though with Calc in 2nd and Sutton in 7th. Furyk improved on the day, but only to 45th.

4th round plays:

Craig Perks to beat Fulton Allem -115 @ Five Dimes

Stuart Appleby to beat Brad Faxon -110 @ Carib

Neal Lancaster to beat Matthew Goggin -111 @ DAS

Glen Hnatiuk to beat David Morland -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Scott McCarron to beat Paul Stankowski -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Will add two-ball plays later.

Adding:

Skip Kendall to beat Fulton Allem -137 @ Easybets [2 units]

Brian Gay to beat Craig Perks +100 @ Centrebet

Bernhard Langer to beat David Morland -120 @ Easybets or Sportingbet [2 units]

Final update: 6-2-0 and +5.26 units for the day; 15-12-2 and +4.65 units for the week

Decent finish to the week despite Calcavecchia's 3-putt! Generally solid wins on all today's matches. The results: Perks/Allem 4 up; Appleby/Faxon 2 up; Lancaster/Goggin 4 up; Hnatiuk/Morland 5 up; McCarron/Stankowski 2 up; Langer/Morland 4 up. The bad loss was again in the Gay/Perks matchup - he lost by six, while the frustrating loss was the tie between Kendall and Allem. This one was dead until a 3-shot swing in the last two holes and the second tie to lose in two days

The 72-hole plays finished a disappointing 1-3-1 with only Sutton winning; he beat Hart by three. Elsewhere Stankowski lost by two to Smith, DiMarco lost by one to Smith, Parry lost by nine to Ogilvy and Kendall tied to push with Daly.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.50 units

What a finish and what a way to miss out   Calc's three-putt on the last denied him a playoff place and he secured only a place win on the week. Furyk had a great weekend, but he had left himself too much to do and finished in 7th place. Sutton had been in position, but couldn't break par on the last day and fell to 18th.