Houston Open

This week it's the home course of Jeff Maggert. He resides at the course and as a youngster [not as long ago as most would think!] he caddied for Scott Simpson in this event. He knows the course more than anyone else and so should be a prime contender to win this event every year. He is the leading money winner in this event after all. Well, maybe not to win the event. He is the only player on Tour that has had the lead four or more times in the same event and not won it. He was at least runner-up in 1994, 1996 and 1998, though in 1991 he shot 80 to fall thirty places.

One particular feature of this event is that it is typically close. There have been nine playoffs in the last fifteen years! And last year's inability of Stadler to win was memorable even when Allenby had found water. Another feature is that Texans, and in particular Fred Couples, Justin Leonard, Phil Blackmar and Mark Brooks, tend to do well here with the move to Bermuda greens; the last two are former winners of this event.

The emphasis is on finding the target rather than length this week. Many of the longer-hitters will not be able to hit drivers all the time because of the penalties that lie further from the tee and with water in play in nine holes - the 'devil's bathtub' snakes around the back nine - there is no excuse for being wayward. The Texas winds will only heighten the emphasis on straight-hitting and will fry the greens so that morning tee times are a big advantage each day.

The three outright selections this week are Vijay Singh, Hal Sutton and Jerry Kelly. Singh may have been very disappointing in the final round last week and doubts do linger about his capacity to lead from the front in PGA Tour events [he does not have the same problem elsewhere!], but it was only his 2nd round over par this year and it was the sort of day in which everyone brought each other down. He still gained a top-4 finish for the 7th time in eight events and have a decent record in this event, finishing 5th on his last visit in 1999. With last week's problem seemingly more mental than technical, he should never be far from the top of the leaderboard in an event a little short of top-class players.

Hal Sutton comes into this event with good finishes at the two 'tight' courses - 3rd at Doral and 5th at Sawgrass - and this course will be much more to his liking than Augusta. He has missed this event just twice in the past twenty years and though he disappointed somewhat to finish 29th last year, he had finished 2nd, 6th and 4th in the three years beforehand. He has yet to win this event, but he should not be too far from that target this week.

Finally, Jerry Kelly sprung to prominence with his performance at the TPC, but he followed that with another strong showing at the BellSouth and comes into this event in great form despite last week's missed cut. He has played this event every year for the past five years and only 3 players (Sutton, Hoch & Maggert) are more under-par at The Woodlands over that time. He still commands a decent price and should be able to secure a top-5 finish.

Outright plays:

Vijay Singh to win 10/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold 

Hal Sutton to win 16/1 e.w. @ Bet247

Jerry Kelly to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey, Victor Chandler or Bet247

72-hole plays:

Bob May to beat Fulton Allem -118 @ Easybets [2 units]
May seems to be recovering from his wrist injury in decent fashion - he has finished 43rd and 21st in the last two weeks, while admitting that he would not have returned to the course so soon had it not been the Masters. He is much the better player as Allem's 77-91 figures at the 1998 Houston Open testify

David Duval to beat Stewart Cink -160 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]
A winner of this event in 1998 and with an excellent record on this course overall, Duval is perfectly poised to follow up his Masters revival. The extra chalk is worth laying against a player who has never played this course and has no consistency, having a good week/bad week spell at the moment and last week's 10th place finish was a good week

Hal Sutton to beat Stewart Cink -115 @ WSEX [2 units]
This one is just as good. The player with the best aggregate under-par total around this course against a course novice. This line has already moved and will continue to do so until Thursday, though Simon Bold will probably continue to offer -111 but with a tie at 16/1

Justin Leonard to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Intertops
On current form, this should be an ugly matchup, but Leonard has had two top-20 finishes in his last three appearances here and does play better in the South. For his part, although Franco finished 11th last year, he ranks 156th in driving accuracy this year and looks set to continue to struggle

Loren Roberts to beat Shigeki Maruyama -130 @ Grand Central
Another matchup featuring players out of form, but again the play is with the player with decent course form and against a wild driver. Roberts has finished 3rd and 5th in the last two years here and will be much more likely to keep the ball in play than Maruyama who currently ranks 160th in driving accuracy

1st round plays:

David Duval to beat Stewart Cink -162 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jerry Kelly to beat Stewart Cink -105 @ Five Dimes

Chris DiMarco to beat Chris Smith -113 @ Five Dimes

Kevin Sutherland to beat Shigeki Maruyama -110 @ Five Dimes  

Adding 1st round play:

Loren Roberts to beat Shigeki Maruyama -127 @ GoTo Casino

1st round update: 4-1-0 and +3.73 units

One lucky day! Cink bogeyed the last two holes to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory   It meant one shot wins for Duval and Kelly, while DiMarco beat Smith by two and Sutherland beat Maruyama by four. The only loss was a shocker though, Roberts shot 81 to lose to Maruyama by eight.

The 72-hole plays stand 3-1-0 after 18 holes: Leonard leads Franco by one, Sutton leads Cink by three, Duval leads Cink by one, while Roberts trails Maruyama by eight, though it looks like Roberts may have withdrawn as he is no longer featured on the PGATour.com leaderboard! If only he had pulled out before the teeing off like Fulton Allem who rendered the May play void. The outrights are all in play with Sutton best placed at 14th, but both he and Kelly (38th) play in afternoon tomorrow; Singh shot an over-par round again, but is only six shots out of the lead and that can easily be made up given the forecast for more strong winds tomorrow.

2nd round plays:

Mark Brooks to beat John Cook -110 @ Five Dimes 

Mark Brooks to beat Fred Couples +104 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Olin Browne to beat Brandt Jobe +100 @ Five Dimes  

Kenny Perry to beat Greg Chalmers -106 @ Five Dimes 

Vijay Singh to beat Joe Durant -150 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-2-0 and +1.58 units

All the matches were close today and was fortunate for a second day to come out ahead. It took an out-of-bounds from Couples on the 6th [his 15th hole of the day] to tip the balance in the top play of the day and Brooks ran out a five-shot winner. Brooks also beat Cook by one, the same margin by which Perry beat Chalmers. One shot was also the margin of defeat for Singh against Durant, while Browne lost to Jobe by three.

None of the three remaining 72-hole plays were decided at the cut, but all three are ahead. Leonard leads Franco by two, Sutton leads Cink by five and Duval leads Cink by one. Finally, there is some reason for hope with the outrights. Kelly missed the cut by one, but Sutton was very impressive this afternoon and climbed up to 4th, just three shots behind Janzen. Singh is a further five shots back in 34th place.

3rd round plays:

K.J. Choi to beat Garrett Willis -122 @ Five Dimes

Chris DiMarco to beat John Daly -120 @ Moneyplays

Justin Leonard to beat John Daly -120 @ Carib

Hal Sutton to beat Tom Pernice -140 @ Moneyplays

3rd round update: 4-0-0 and +4.00 units

SWEEP!!   Choi beat Willis by two, DiMarco beat Daly by two, Leonard beat Daly by one and Sutton beat Pernice by three. Not very large margins of victory, but sweet all the same! The only downside on the day was the performance of the three remaining 72-hole plays. They started the day all ahead and finished 1-1-1. Leonard now trails Franco by two, Sutton still leads Cink by five, but Duval is now tied with Cink.

Some improvement in the outrights. Sutton climbed a place to 3rd and just two shots behind Durant, while Singh jumped up to 11th and is only five shots out of the lead. Will have some 4th round plays up soon.

4th round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Shigeki Maruyama +100 @ Five Dimes

David Duval to beat Stewart Cink -115 @ GoTo Casino

John Cook to beat John Daly +100 @ WSEX [2 units]

Fred Couples to beat Nick Faldo -110 @ GoTo Casino

Billy Mayfair to beat John Daly -120 @ Olympic [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Carlos Franco -130 @ GoTo Casino

Lines are not up yet at Moneyplays, but they should be the same or at least similar to those for the GoTo Casino plays.

4th round two-ball plays - all tied hedged @ +800 with Victor Chandler, Sporting Odds or Centrebet unless otherwise stated:

Greg Kraft to beat John Daly +100 @ Surrey  [odds to win outright: +125]

Joel Edwards to beat Paul Gow outright +100 @ Simon Bold 

Carlos Franco to beat Ben Ferguson outright -150 @ William Hill

Justin Leonard to beat David Morland -159 @ Centrebet [2 units]  [odds to win outright: -120]

Final update: 5-5-1 and +2.35 units for the day; 18-10-1 and +10.16 units for the week

Split the plays on the final day for a small profit. The results: Ames/Maruyama 3 down; Duval/Cink 3 down; Cook/Daly 6 up; Couples/Faldo 1 up; Mayfair/Daly 5 up; Singh/Franco 5 up; Kraft/Daly 5 down; Edwards/Gow all square for a loss - Gow holed from the bunker on the last for a birdie ; Franco/Ferguson 3 down; Leonard/Morland 7 up.

In the remaining 72-hole plays, Leonard beat Franco by five shots, Sutton beat Cink by seven, but Duval lost to Cink by three for a costly loss.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +8.00 units

Winner! Hal Sutton won the event by three shots for a nice 16/1 winner and it was almost a double win, but Vijay Singh finished in 6th place, one shot out of a place win. Kelly's tournament finished on Friday.