The International

The 2nd 'made-for-TV' golf event this week or a welcome break from strokeplay? Either way, this event is certainly unique and always attracts a high quality field. The Stableford scoring system is modified to reward attacking play by making points gained for scoring sub-par about twice the level of those lost for scoring over-par: double-eagle +8pts; eagle +5pts; birdie +2pts; par 0pts; bogey -1pt; double-bogey and above -3pts. It can make this rather a difficult event to cap as it rewards luck much more than other events: a holed fairway shot is rewarded very highly, but finding water is not too punitive. In 1999 Tiger Woods failed to advance to Sunday - though he had won the PGA the week before in rather dramatic fashion against Garcia - and Clarence Rose won this event in 1996. But this aside, the list of former winners reads like a 'Who's Who' of golf and even in this format, cream usually rises to the top.

The course is extremely long at 7,559 yards, but in the thin desert air the ball travels 10-15% further, so this is in effect a short course. There is no point in having such a format if the course didn't offer up very many eagle or birdies opportunities. Like most Jack Nicklaus designs, the course favors a high fade [for the right-hander] and while two of the four par-fives are over 600 yards, extra length off the tee does open up the possibility of eagles. The greens are Bentgrass and usually fast, though they have recently been reduced in size. This week there are two cuts - the first after 36 holes is for the lowest 72 players and ties and then after the 3rd round, only the lowest 36 and ties progress to Sunday. It used to be just the lowest 24 with a playoff needed if there were ties.

While Mickelson may be a justifiable favorite, he is easily passed over at single-figure odds. Instead, the three selections this week are Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia and Kenny Perry. All three have the experience in this event necessary to cope with the scoring system and the weather conditions. Singh hasn't won on the PGA Tour since The Masters last year, but he can put that right this week. He is a former winner of this event (1998) and has played well here in the last two years as well. He sits on top of the 'top-10 finishes' category which shows the consistency in his game this year and on this course, his attacking golf will be rewarded. He ranks 4th behind Mickelson, Woods and Calcavecchia in the very important (for this week) 'par-breaker' category and should go very close.

Garcia is another attacking player who will be well-suited to the format this week. He is in great form with top-15 finishes in his last seven events, a run that includes two majors and two wins, and has also finished in the top-15 on his two visits to Castle Pines. On both occasions he was lying 4th after three rounds, but faltered on the last day. Experience should prevent that happening again and like Singh, he should go very close.

Perry does not have a great record in this event, he has reached the last round just twice in his last seven attempts. However, his form at the moment is as good as it has ever been. He has finished in the top-10 four times in his last six events and the other two finishes were 20th and 26th in events with high quality fields. In his last 32 rounds, he has been over-par just three times. Perry has now risen to 14th in the 'par-breaker' category and looks set for his best finish in this event. Winning in this company looks beyond him, so the place-only option with Olympic looks the best bet.

Outright plays:

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sports.com

Sergio Garcia to win 16/1 e.w. @ Olympic

Kenny Perry to 'show' (finish in the top-4) 12.5/1 @ Olympic

72-hole plays:

Dudley Hart to beat Jose Coceres -155 @ Camelot
Coceres may have won on Tour this season, but he has struggled since and with no experience of this format and the thin air conditions, he will struggle this week. A price worth playing for a player who finished in the top-10 in his last two PGA Tour events

Tim Herron to beat John Daly +105 @ Camelot
This format rewards attacking play, but Daly has only one finish of note in this event: 5th in 1992. On the other five occasions his best has been 62nd. He may break par a great deal, but the double-bogeys will be too frequent and he is still one to oppose this week

Steve Stricker to beat John Daly -118 @ Sportingbet
Stricker has been in decent form in the past month and the format should suit - he currently stands in the top-30 in the par-breaker stats. Good enough to beat Daly

David Duval to beat Ernie Els -111 @ Simon Bold
Els may be the defending champion with an excellent record on this course, but apart from the British Open and brief glimpses during the TNT Dutch Open, he has struggled with his game (and his back) for some time. In contrast to Duval's top-5 in the par-breaker stats, Els languishes in 60th place. With normality slowly returning to Duval's world, he should impress again this week

Bob Tway to beat Edward Fryatt -111 @ UKBetting
Despite some decent pre-weekend golf from the English player, he has continued to struggle when in contention and such tightness can lead to dramatic falls down the leaderboard in this contest. Tway has also put in some decent performances in the past month and has an impressive recent record in this event: 3rd, 6th and 16th in three of his last four visits

Kenny Perry to beat David Gossett -125 @ Camelot
Just one appearance in this event when he missed the cut and one week after the maiden Tour win that has changed his pro life, Gossett will surely suffer a reaction this week. Even if he does not, Perry is in the form capable of beating virtually every player in this field

Jonathan Kaye to beat Greg Norman -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
With four missed cuts and a beat of 27th in his last eight events dating back to the TPC, this looks like a season without motivation for Norman. He does have a very good record in this event, but his form cannot be ignored and nor can that of Kaye who was 3rd in his last event

Kenny Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -140 @ WSEX
With a best of 49th in this event and form that is erratic at best, Kelly is an easy player to oppose with an outright pick

Justin Leonard to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @ Simon Bold
Olly did win this event ten years ago, but his driving was much better then. He won't make enough birdies from irons off the tee or from drivers into the rough to be a challenger this week. Camelot have this more accurately priced up with Leonard -150.

Update:

Four of the nine matchup plays are decided at the cut and three are winners. Hart lost to Coceres by 2 points for the only loss, but Herron beat Daly by 31 points, Stricker beat Daly by 13 points and Perry beat Gossett by 5 points. The rest stand 2-1-2: Duval/Els all square; Tway/Fryatt 10 down; Kaye/Norman all square; Perry/Kelly 3 up; Leonard/Olazabal 2 up. In the outrights, Garcia is 8th, Singh is 12th and Perry is 48th, but with this format, movements up the leaderboard can be very rapid.

Final update: 4-5-0 and -3.05 units

Very disappointing weekend. Three plays were decided at the 2nd cut. Perry beat Kelly by 8 points, Tway finished 1 point short of surviving to Sunday and ended his tournament 7 points behind Fryatt, while Kaye had a horrible round to finish 2 points behind Norman in the 2-unit play. Two plays remained to Sunday and both lost. Duval lost to Els by 11 points and Leonard surrendered a 5 point lead over Olazabal to finish 2 points behind.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.75 units

Rather like the matchups plays, everyone tried their hardest to find a way to lose. Singh could not have had more faltering competition, yet he still did the same and finished 3rd. Garcia scrambled pars all week, but couldn't hole the birdie putts and he finished alongside Perry in 11th place. Not an event to remember!