Invensys Classic

I am not a fan of these pro-ams that are held in early and late season. When players are trying desperately to hold onto their Tour cards or even just qualify for the Tour Championship, being paired with amateurs and playing on artificially easy courses trivializes the whole affair in my opinion. They play with the amateurs on three different courses for the first three days and then, after the 54-hole cut, they play in the standard pro format on the host course over the weekend. Making a score before the weekend is key and this brings to the fore the more experienced players and the ones more at ease with distractions. Hal Sutton has a terrible record in these events, Fred Couples has an excellent one. Two people with different degrees of intensity and therefore suitability to the pro-am format.

The Desert Inn golf course was sold and closed last year with the construction of a new hotel, so the TPC at The Canyons joins the TPC at Summerlin (host course) and Southern Highlands as the courses to be used this week. All three courses are over 7000 yards, but play much shorter in the thin desert air, plus, the fairways are wide and the greens are soft because of the amateur contingent. This can become a putting contest as Furyk's three victories have shown.

The outright selections for this event are Davis Love, Rocco Mediate and Kevin Sutherland. Love has had an injury-affected season and has not played since finishing 5th in the NEC Invitational. He has simply been very selective about his tournaments since the US Open and has played well on virtually every occasion. With suitability to the format being important, he also brings a very good history in this event, which he won in 1993. With top-5 finishes in four of his last eight visits, he gets the short-price selection.

Two good prices are available on Mediate and Sutherland. Mediate is another who has had a very light schedule due to injury concerns after starting the season in great form. He signalled a return to that form with 2nd place in the Pennsylvania Classic last month. His form in this event has been steady with decent finishes in three of the last four years, but he has never played as well as this year and should be looking to improve on his previous high finish of 14th.

Sutherland retains his position as an outright selection despite a disappointing weekend that saw his fall to 32nd overall last week. With top-5 finishes in his previous two events, his form is still good and he does have a good history in pro-ams. He has finished in the top-10 in two of the last three years in the Bob Hope and has been 6th in two of the last fours years in this event. Curiously, in both events his top-10 finishes have occurred in 'odd' years, so let's hope that trend continues this week!

Outright plays:

Davis Love to win 14/1 e.w. available generally

Rocco Mediate to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365

Kevin Sutherland to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds or Bet365

90-hole plays:

Charles Howell to beat John Daly +100 @ Paddy Power
Looking to oppose Daly this week, despite having him as a profitable selection in Germany last week. Apart from the fatigue factor - this is a five-day event and it is the second time in six weeks that he has flown to and from Germany - he has a very poor record in this event and in the other 90-hole pro-am event, the Bob Hope Classic. He may be a lot more patient nowadays, but performing with the amateurs is an acquired taste! Howell is simply a great prospect and in good form, coming off 3rd in the Michelob last week

Justin Leonard to beat John Daly -110 @ BlueSq [2 units]
A missed cut last week is of little concern for Leonard having successfully defended his Texas Open title. His form is good and with a record in this event this is just as good, he should have a good week

Rocco Mediate to beat John Daly -120 @ Camelot [3 units]
Mediate is an outright selection and a strong week is expected from him. He may not finish in the top-5 to win the outright play, but is playing good enough to beat Daly

Fred Funk to beat Steve Jones -110 @ Bet365
Ignoring the missed cut on the Bermuda greens of the Texas Open, Funk's form is good. Jones' form is certainly not. He has had an injury-affected season and missed more cuts than he has made. Strong chance he will miss another this week

Kirk Triplett to beat J.J. Henry -125 @ BlueSq [2 units]
Backing Triplett to have yet another great week. Apart from a disqualification in the NEC Invitational over not telling his playing partner he was going to lift his ball to identify it and so signing for the wrong score - there should have been a one-shot penalty as Mickelson also found out that week - Triplett has finished in the top-15 in every tournament he has entered since the US Open bar one. In that form and with a reasonable record in this format, he looks set for maybe extending that run. Henry has also been in great form, but the rookie should find the pro-am format rather more unsettling

Kirk Triplett to beat Scott McCarron -120 @ Camelot
A finish of 5th last year hides an otherwise poor record in this event for McCarron. With just three top-10 finishes - though one was a victory in the BellSouth Classic - all year, it is very clear that he is not in the same form as Triplett and so is opposed

Update:

Two of the six plays are decided at the cut, but only one is a winner. Funk beat Jones by four shots, while Mediate lost to Daly by fourteen shots. Indeed, it looks like Daly will be ensuring a losing week in the matchups. He leads Howell by five shots and Leonard by eight with 36 holes to play. In the other matches, Triplett leads Henry by three shots and trails McCarron by seven. In the outrights, Mediate missed the cut and Sutherland languishes in 53rd place, so it remains with Love to deliver a profitable event.

Final update: 2-4-0 and -5.00 units

Poor tournament or rather a poor week to oppose Daly! Apart from beating Mediate at the cut, he beat Howell by five shots and Leonard by nine. In the remaining plays, Triplett beat Henry by eight shots but lost to McCarron by eleven.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.75 units

Love even held on the lead on the final nine, but he had always played too many holes in this birdie-fest and finished 4th for a place win at least. Sutherland finished 38th and Mediate missed the cut.