John Deere Classic

Low-key event with just ten players returning from the British Open to compete at Deere Run and only three of them had made the cut at Lytham. Most of the others players have preparations for the PGA Championship in their mind and skip this event. A better field than at the BC Open last week, but only just!

The course was built and only opened in June last year on land donated by Deere himself - it was a condition of sponsorship of the event that a new TPC course was built and used for this event. It is long at almost 7,200 yards and being a par-71, it should be a stern test with ravines and tree-lined fairways adding to the quality of the course. However, scoring was low last year with the rough not being particularly penal. This year, last week's rain should make the rough a little tougher, though with the greens enlarged and five greens re-sodded, this could be just another putting contest.

The three selections this week are Scott Verplank, Kirk Triplett and Charles Howell. Verplank is one of those three who made the cut at the British Open and are playing this week. He finished 30th to stretch his run of top-30 finishes to five. He is winless this year, but has been in fine form with four top-4 finishes and looks a quality player in this field. With all four rounds under 70 last year, he looks well-suited to this course and is a deserved short-price.

Triplett was an unlucky loser last year as he lost in a four-hole playoff to Michael Clark, but he fits the bill of an accurate player with good all-round stats. He didn't make the trip to England and hasn't played in three weeks. Well-rested, he can build on the two 7th place finishes in his last three events and is available at much higher odds than expected.

Much higher odds on Charles Howell are also found at Victor Chandler; most other books price him around 14/1. He almost won the Greater Milwaukee Open two weeks ago and after a slow start he finished the weekend 68-66 at the BC Open to finish 12th. In great form and on a wave of confidence, he has course form as well to make the 20/1 on offer seem rather large. Last year, he finished 3rd, just one shot out of the playoff.

Outright plays:

Scott Verplank to win 18/1 e.w. @ BetInternet

Kirk Triplett to win 28/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports

Charles Howell to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

72-hole plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Brian Gay -125 @ Victor Chandler
Gay is one of those players who made the trip across the pond and missed the cut. Not ideal preparation for this week and having missed the cut on this course last year is one to oppose. Ames stayed on the PGA Tour and finished 6th and will be better focused for this event

Fred Funk to beat Brian Gay -105 @ WSEX
Funk also stayed on the PGA Tour and missed the cut. That was the result of a shocking first round, when an outright selection, though his 2nd round 68 was enough proof that he can turn things around this week on a course that should suit his accurate driving

Robert Damron to beat Paul Gow -111 @ Simon Bold
Gow is another to oppose this week. Desperately unlucky not to win last week's playoff, his tee-shot hit a tree and rebounded into water to end his chances of his maiden Tour win. With a previus best of 16th on Tour, his mind could easily be elsewhere this week. He was so close to that Tour exemption! Damron has been a reasonable form, but this is more a play against Gow

Brian Watts to beat Paul Gow -111 @ UKBetting
Opposing Gow with one of my favorite sleepers. Watts finished 8th last week at the BC Open as proof of his credentials.

Tim Herron to beat Brett Quigley -111 @ Simon Bold
Quigley may have sprung back into form with a top-20 finish two weeks ago and another top-10 last week, but it was a case of missed opportunities as he was leading after 36 holes and failed to break par over the weekend. That may rest on his mind and Herron is a good enough player to win this matchup. Top-10 last year and 3rd last time out at the Greater Milwaukee Open, he is favored at these odds. He is as much as -145 at Olympic.

Adding:

Sean Murphy to beat Stephen Allan +100 @ Camelot
Ugly matchup that should be decided before the weekend. Since impressing at Q-School, Allan has returned to his European Tour form of last year: he has missed nine of his last thirteen cuts. In the same spell, Murphy has missed seven of eleven, but the upturn in his form is noticeable: he has made four of his last five cuts and was unlucky to miss the cut last year when shooting 71-69

Brian Claar to beat Jim Gallagher +105 @ Camelot
Another play on a player with improved form against one in a long-term slump. Claar missed his first cut in four events last week and that was only by one stroke. He even finished 18th in the Greater Milwaukee Open. By contrast, Gallagher hasn't played at the weekend since the Buy.com Louisiana Open in March!

Pete Jordan to beat Phil Tataurangi -135 @ Camelot [2 units]
Same story in this matchup. Jordan has played four rounds in three of his last four events, while Tataurangi has missed four of his last five. The only concern is that this is Jordan's 8th event in as many weeks!

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Lowery -113 @ Sportbet
At last, a matchup that will last until Sunday! Both finished high on the leaderboard last year and have had some decent top-10 finishes of late. Just favor Triplett who has been finishing in the top-30 on a more consistent basis

Sam Randolph to beat Charlie Rymer -145 @ Camelot [3 units]
It sure is easy to oppose a player who has played 13 Tour events and has failed to make the weekend in any of them! That includes scores of 77-75 last year. Randolph is no world-beater, though he did win a PGA Tour event 14 years ago and had a decent showing at the BC Open last week

Mid-point update:

Five plays are decided at the cut and three are winners, including both the large plays   Randolph was five shots ahead of Rymer when he quit after nine holes today in the 3-unit play and in the 2-unit play, Jordan beat Tataurangi by eight shots. In the rest, Damron lost to Gow by ten, Murphy lost to Allan by four and Claar beat Gallagher by thirteen.

Of the three remaining plays, Watts trails Gow by two, Herron trails Quigley by two and Triplett trails Lowery by five, so the weekend can only get better! Same with the outrights. Verplank didn't tee Howell and Triplett are off the pace. But on a congested leaderboard, Quigley is only five shots out of a place finish in 40th place and Triplett is two shots back in 63rd.

Will be away for the next few days, so all updates will be posted on Monday afternoon.

Final update: 3-4-1 and +1.72 units

Little improvement on the three remaining plays over the weekend. Triplett did close to tie with Lowery, but Watts finished 12 shots behind Gow and Herron finished 6 shots behind Quigley. Still a profit on these plays following the success of the larger unit plays.

Update on outright plays: 0-2 and -2.00 units

Break-even week as both Triplett and Howell finish outside the top-5. They finish 15th and 25th respectively and were never close to securing a top-5 spot. Verplank withdraw before the event started.