The Masters

The most anticipated event of the year and on a course which is as infuriating as beautiful. The is the title the players most want to win. Unusually for a Major, the players face wide-open fairways and not a particularly long course, but that has not meant low-scoring here in the past, though not because of the measures to make the course "Tiger-proof" after 1997 (mind you, he has not come close to winning since). Instead, the course's defences lie with its sculptured and very undulating greens. The slower Bermudagrass had been the strain used when the course had been designed, but now with an extremely slick Bentgrass surface, the target area for approach shots to each green has become extremely small as downhill putts are the ruin of every card.

For that reason, driving ability is not a significant factor here. The champion has each year since 1994 been in the top-10 of that weeks' greens in regulation and putts per hole stats or has been 1st in one of them. This is traditionally a course for those with great ball control and those with great short games. Mark O'Meara had just 105 putts [the best in the last seven years] when winning the Masters in 1998; Vijay Singh had 19 more putts last year, but hit 18 more greens in regulation [58, the best in the last seven years]. The winners of the past three years may have been available at long prices [50/1, 66/1, 66/1], but their games have been predictable.

Not because this is the Masters, but because I can't decide between two of the shorter-priced players, there are four outright plays this week. These are Vijay Singh, Davis Love, Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir. In the previous 65 Masters tournaments, the champion has defended his crown successfully on only two occasions, but Singh is of the calibre that re-write record books, especially in his current form. He has finished no worse than 4th in his last six events, winning two of them, and has not shot a single round over par this year! He righted a previously poor record at Augusta last year when he won by hitting the greens in regulation and avoiding the strain on his short game, which is much better now that he uses the long stick - he currently ranks 3rd in the PGA Tour putting average stats. As defending champion, it should be that Woods is his strongest challenger and not the other way around.

I couldn't split Davis Love and Phil Mickelson, so have gone for both. Love has an excellent record in this event, finishing no worse than 7th in five of the last six years and being runner-up twice. In terms of prize money won at the Masters in the past ten years, he ranks 2nd behind two-time winner Olazabal. He comes into this event in better form than in previous years and having won the At&T Pebble Beach this year, he looks a much stronger prospect to win rather than just feature with that monkey off his back.

Like Love, this event is #1 on Mickelson's list of priorities and no other Major fits their long, but sometimes erratic game better. With one of the best short games in the business, there is no reason why he should not play well here and he has done in the past without winning. Also akin to Love, the last six years have seen a high number of finishes in the top-7, four as opposed to Love's five, and over the course of the last five years, they share an identical 7-under-par cumulative total. They both suffered in the wind & unfair greens last week, but if the conditions remain calm in Augusta then it could be over to Monty for the title of 'best player not to win a Major'.

Finally, Mike Weir completes a trio of players who played last week, but it is he who comes out of that event with the greatest fillip. He played superbly to recover from a dismal first round and not only make the Sunday slog by one shot, but also finish 2nd and put McCarron under pressure. He has only played in this event once before when he finished 28th last year, but that was the result of a disappointing 78 in the final round when he had started the day in 5th place. He has an excellent all-round game, particularly on the greens, and comes into the event in great form having finished 2nd in two of his last three events. Unlikely to win, but should feature this week.

Outright plays:

Vijay Singh to win 12/1 e.w. [5 places] @ Stanley  [14/1 & 4 places @ Simon Bold]

Phil Mickelson to win 16/1 e.w. [5 places] @ Bet247 

Davis Love to win 20/1 e.w. [5 places] @ BlueSq

Mike Weir to show 11/1 [4 places] @ Olympic

Early 72-hole plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Joe Durant -111 @ Ladbrokes 
Both have secured long overdue wins this season and both last played here two years ago and missed the cut. That was Durant's sole appearance, but Calc had finished in the top-20 in eight of his previous twelve appearances. Experience in Majors and particularly the experience of winning one tips this in favor of Calc; Durant has not played in one since 1999 and has made the cut just twice in five Major starts

Hal Sutton to beat Joe Durant -125 @ Centrebet 
Experience of Majors and winning one is also the basis here for backing Sutton. Like Singh, he righted a poor Masters record last year with a 10th place finish as his iron play should set him up for less trouble on the greens than most of his fellow competitors. He comes here in fine form having finished 3rd in the Genuity and 5th in the TPC and while he won't win this this week, a top-15 finish should be ample enough to beat Durant

Nick Price to beat Sergio Garcia +100 @ WSEX
The wide fairways suit Garcia, but when he currently ranks 167th in greens in regulation and 62nd in putting average on the PGA Tour it is hard to see him coping with Augusta this year. In fact, apart from his heroic 2nd at Medinah, his best finish in a Major has been 28th at the 1998 British Open when he was an amateur. Price is no fan of the course, but when he has finished 11th and 6th here in the last two years, is the course record holder and has finished in the top-20 in all of his last 12 events, he should be the clear favorite

Props:

An amateur to make the cut +160 @ Olympic or Sportfanatik 
In the last three years there have been 2, 4 and 1 amateurs making the cut. While this week's amateurs have struggled in full Tour events, this week they face a reduced field that includes over twenty 'ceremonial' golfers and they have the amateur medal compete to compete for. The cut is made at just 44 players plus ties and anyone within 10 shots of the leader, but we only need one of the amateurs to be play well in a field of 80 "competitive" players. Much has been written about Quinney, Driscolla and Trahan in particular and they represent the best chances.

10-19 double-bogeys or more at the 12th hole +192 @ SportingOdds [2 units]
In the last six years the number of double-bogeys or more at this hole have been 1996-17; 1997-18; 1998-13; 1999-20; 2000-25, of which 13 took place in the difficult conditions of the first day. With the weather forecast for winds of 5-6mph during the tournament and the course softened by rain, this could be a much less treacherous prospect than in recent years. The actual odds offered are: less than 15 = 6/1 (0.42 units) and 15-19 = 4/1 (0.58 units)

Adding 72-hole plays:

Tom Lehman to beat Michael Campbell -120 @ Simon Bold 
Very solid record in this event from Lehman - top-20 in three of last five years and 2nd to Olazabal in 1994. He is a player who excels in Majors and while the Kiwi has a good game for this course, he has only played it once, in 1996, and this week is all about experience

Chris Perry to beat Joe Durant -105 @ Olympic or Five Dimes 
I guess Durant is my go-against of the week! An incredible collapse last week from the top of the leaderboard nearing the end of his 1st round saw Perry miss the cut. It may be a blessing in disguise to have missed Sunday's torture and I expect him to match last year's 14th place finish to win this matchup

Jim Furyk to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -120 @ Simon Bold
Olazabal may be the top money-earner at the Masters in the last 10 years and have a great record here, but he did miss the cut last year and his form this season on the PGA Tour has not been that of champions. He ranks 84th in greens in regulation and 78th in putting average this year; Furyk ranks 25th and 2nd respectively and should win this with ease.

Adding props:

Nick Faldo to miss the cut +170 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Finished 28th last year, but had missed three previous cuts at the Masters and with the cut at 44 players plus ties this week, his record of being in the top-44 after two rounds in any event this year is just one from six

Michael Campbell to miss the cut +240 @ Five Dimes 
Has played in this event just once in 1996 when he missed the cut and after 1995 - the year he finished 3rd at the British Open - he has missed the cut in six of nine Majors, including two of three last year when back in form. He has played little the PGA Tour, but this year finished 15th in the TPC, but shot 73-78 to miss the cut the week before at Bay Hill

Notah Begay to miss the cut -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Made all the cuts in the Majors last year, but is in dreadful form this year: in six events he has missed four cuts, finished 56th at Bay Hill (was 63rd after 36 holes), and finished virtually last at the Mercedes

Also looking at Thomas Bjorn after his performance at the TPC, but need to find out more about his practice rounds before making it a play

There may be lots of matchups on offer this week, but they seem to be much better-researched than usual   Looks like there's more value in the props, so adding some more from Centrebet's enormous list:

Aaron Baddeley to miss the cut +155 [3 units]
He may have a great record in Australia, but is awful in the States. He has missed the cut in both of his Major appearances, including the Masters last year, and has made the cut in just one (his first!) on eight appearances on the regular PGA Tour including the Honda Classic last month.

Jose Coceres to miss the cut +105 [3 units]
Missed the cut by some distance for a matchup win last week and has only played in one Major on American soil - last year's PGA - and missed the cut. A good competitor on the European Tour, but will always struggle on the very slick greens on offer on this Tour

Pierre Fulke to miss the cut +140 [2 units]
Has only ever played one tournament on American soil and it was last week's BellSouth Classic. He did make the make the cut, but was never higher than 30th. As a debutante at Augusta, the occasion will be too much for him

Retief Goosen to miss the cut +140 [2 units]
Has made the cut in three of nine Majors on American soil and one of two Masters appearances; in regular PGA Tour events, he has a record of four cuts made from twelve events including the TPC and withdrew last week rather than play on Sunday. Has one of the best swings on the European Tour, but like Coceres, struggles to putt on European Tour greens so has no chance on the greens this week

Paul Lawrie to miss the cut +100
Has just two appearances in Majors outside Britain, both last year when he missed the cut (79-74) at the Masters and finished 72nd in the PGA. Does not have record on American soil and that includes a poor showing at the TPC (75-78) two weeks ago

Bob May to miss the cut +110 [2 units]
Has not played since hurting his back at the Bob Hope Classic in February; if this were not the Masters he has admitted he would not be playing and won't be competitive this week

Larry Mize to miss the cut +110 [2 units]
Has missed his last five cuts and while he has finished in the top-25 the last two seasons, it is a very long time since his famous 140-foot chip to win the 1987 Masters

Eduardo Romero to miss the cut +100 [2 units]
It cannot be the ideal preparation for this event that he played the TPC very poorly (78-79) to miss the cut then competed in the Open de Argentina where he disappointed to finish 18th and is now back in the States; this event is obviously not very high on his list of priorities. It is the first time he has played here and like other debutantes will struggle to cope with the vagarities of Augusta

Tom Scherrer to miss the cut -111
Has missed his last four cuts, including the last three weeks, so doesn't come into this event in the best of confidence. As a Masters debutante as well there is no much in his favor this week

Craig Stadler to miss the cut +105 [3 units]
Scherrer may be out of form, but he could still give Stadler a five-shot start! The Walrus has missed six of seven cuts on the PGA Tour this year and in the event he did play at the weekend, the AT&T Pebble Beach, he finished 55th. Looks very good to repeat last year's missed cut

Grant Waite to miss the cut +115
Comes into the event off back-to-back missed cuts and he has an extremely poor career record in Majors: just two cuts made from nine starts and has a record of 0 for 1 at the Masters

Duffy Waldorf to miss the cut +145
Has a decent record in this event, but that dates from 1993 to 1997 only. Has only been invited back once since (last year) and missed the cut. Not in the best of form either, having missed four cuts in his last six events

All cut bets @ Centrebet 

Highest round to be over 90.5 -140 @ Carib [2 units]
Have it from a source at Augusta yesterday that Doug Ford was hitting the ball no further than 125 yards and on a damp course he will struggle to better last year's 94. The signs of ageing are apparent from the 78-year-old's Augusta scores: since 1985 when he shot 76, his scores have shown an almost uniform increase every single year up to last year's 94. Given that he has stated in the press that he intends to play the entire round, the main danger to this play should be averted

Will post 1st round plays in the morning when the weather conditions are known.

1st round plays:

Carlos Franco to beat Robert Allenby +100 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris DiMarco to beat Steve Flesch +110 @ Moneyplays

Jim Furyk to beat Tom Lehman +110 @ Moneyplays

Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir +100 @ Moneyplays

Jesper Parnevik to beat Lee Janzen -115 @ Sportbet [2 units]

David Toms to beat Lee Janzen -110 @ Moneyplays

1st round update: 3-2-1 and -0.20 units

Just a break-even first day as neither 2-unit play won. Franco could also tie with Allenby and Janzen inflicted both defeats of the day: by four shots over Parnevik in the other 2-unit play and by five shots over Toms. Elsewhere, convincing wins for DiMarco by nine and for Furyk by six over Lehman and by five over Weir.

Much better news with the 72-hole and prop plays. The 72-holers stand 4-2-0 after 18 holes: Calc leads Durant by one, Furyk leads Olazabal by one, Lehman leads Campbell by three, Perry leads Durant by five, but Sutton trails Durant by one and Price trails Garcia by three. The cut props stand 10-3-3 after 36 holes where three players are right at the cut mark of the top-44. With all but two at plus odds, these could be the best plays of the week!

Finally, in the outrights three of the four are still in contention. Mickelson is 4th, Singh is 11th and Love is 21st after the 1st round, but Weir is down in 56th place, but that's still a lot better than he was after 18 holes last week!

2nd round plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Greg Chalmers -140 @ WSEX

Fred Couples to beat Tom Lehman +110 @ Five Dimes

Fred Couples to beat Greg Norman -105 @ Five Dimes

Colin Montgomerie to beat Sergio Garcia -118 @ Five Dimes

Colin Montgomerie to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -110 @ Moneyplays

2nd round update: 2-2-1 and -0.10 units

Split the plays again for a break-even day - the props have definitely had the weakest lines this week! DiMarco won by two and Couples beat Norman by nine. Couples lost by three to Lehman though and Monty disappointed to lose by eight to Olazabal, though was fortunate to secure a tie against Garcia.

Five of the six 72-hole plays were decided at the cut with four of them winners. Calc and Lehman won by eight, Perry won by four despite barely being able to walk by the end of his round today and Sutton won by three. The only loss was with Price who finished two shots behind Garcia. In the sole remaining play, Furyk trails Olazabal by two.

The major plays of the week were the props though and what a success they were! Of the sixteen cut props, twelve were winners   The only losers were the amateur play, though Driscoll really should have made it to the weekend, Bob May who finished on the cut line and Tom Scherrer and Duffy Waldorf who were a more comfortable three shots within the cut line. In the other two props, the 'over 90.5' play looks dead after Doug Ford withdrew after one hole, but the '12th hole horrors' play does look tight, but should win with 12 double-bogeys or more after two rounds and a much smaller, and better, field playing at the weekend.

Back in the morning with 3rd round plays.

3rd round plays:

Fred Couples to beat Shingo Katayama -111 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Carlos Franco to beat Bernhard Langer +140 @ Centrebet [best price without tie: +100 @ Intertops]

Dudley Hart to beat Mark O'Meara -110 @ Five Dimes

John Huston to beat Bernhard Langer +102 @ Five Dimes

Jonathan Kaye to beat Shino Katayama -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Jesper Parnevik to beat Bernhard Langer +100 @ Carib

3rd round update: 0-6-0 and -9.62 units

Shocking day! Couple of bad beats with the top plays of the day - Katayama tied with Couples for a loss on the 3-way betting at Centrebet and finished one shot ahead Kaye at Five Dimes where a tie would have least resulted in a push. Otherwise, shockingly bad plays and large defeats. The only good news on the day is that Furyk pulled ahead of Olazabal in the remaining 72-hole play, but now need Mickelson to win the Masters to resuscitate a previously excellent week.

4th round plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ DAS

Paul Azinger to beat Darren Clarke -112 @ Five Dimes

Angel Cabrera to beat Chris DiMarco +105 @ Carib

David Duval to beat Ernie Els +105 @ Carib

Kirk Triplett to beat Rocco Mediate -105 @ Moneyplays

Kirk Triplett to beat Steve Stricker -110 @ Five Dimes

Kirk Triplett to beat Brad Faxon +150 @ Victor Chandler

Final update: 4-1-2 and +3.05 units for the day; 27-17-4 and +23.76 units for the week

Recovered a little of yesterday's losses with a good last day. The only loss of the day was on a tie Triplett held a 3-shot lead over Faxon with six holes to play, but Faxon had a great run-in and the tie loses at Victor Chandler. The ties for pushes was at Five Dimes with the Triplett-Stricker play and at Carib with the Cabrera-DiMarco play where DiMarco closes with three straight birdies to deny the win The other plays all won: Azinger beat Appleby by seven and Clarke by four, Duval beat Els by five and Triplett beat Mediate by two.

In the sole remaining 72-hole play, Furyk beat Olazabal by two shots to conclude the 72-hole plays 5-1-0, while the two remaining props were split. No-one shot over 90.5 over the weekend so that one lost, but there were 18 double-bogeys or higher on the 12th and that meant a win at nice odds. The props for the week finished 13-5-0 and that's where the money was won this week!

Update on outright plays: 1-3 and -1.50 units

A valiant effort by Mickelson, but as with rather too many tournaments this year, he has missed too many putts when in contention. He finished 3rd. Not so good were Singh who finished 18th and Weir who finished 27th. Love had earlier missed the cut. A very profitable week in summary