Memorial Tournament

Earlier this year it was Arnie who was sending out the personal invitations to his tournament; this week it's Jack's turn. A much smaller than average field, though notably weaker than in previous years, has assembled to tackle Muirfield Village, a course never out of the top-20 "greatest courses" and based heavily on the Augusta National. Nicklaus has said about his course: "golf to me is a game of precision more than power, and I think this course reflects that". However, the roll-call of recent winners: Woods (2000, 1999), Couples (1998), Singh (1997) suggests otherwise. The reason: "Memorial weather"!

The event has been afflicted by heavy rain. Of the 100 rounds played in the previous 25 tournaments, 23 have been delayed, interrupted or cancelled because of the weather. Last year was no exception, the event finished on Monday and when Singh won in '97, the event was reduced to three rounds, and it took five days to play them! Jack wanted this course set up like a major, with long rough and fast greens, but the weather has frustrated him almost every year and with the current weather forecast, looks like it will do once again.

At 7200 yards, the course is long with severe penalties for missing the fairways. The par fours are, collectively, the toughest on tour, while the small greens are Bentgrass, undulating, and in dry conditions, very, very fast. The parallels with Augusta are clear. The final note is that this event is dedicated to the memory of a person, living or dead. This year it will be Payne Stewart. Amen.

The event is sadly missing the likes of Duval to a wedding, Mickelson who chose to play the Kemper Open instead , and Love whose neck injury may require surgery. It also features Singh and Els who were both playing at Wentworth on Monday in the Volvo PGA Championship and were really not playing that well. In such circumstances it is hard to find a credible opponent to Tiger who has won this event for the last two years. The best player by a mile and with a knack to getting the best draw and avoiding the worst of the weather, he is very hard to oppose this week. At 5/4 he is tempting this week, at 8/5 he is great value (for once!). No apologies for backing the favorite, he is justifiably so!

With a double-play on Tiger, there is just one other outright pick this week and rightfully, it is in a w/o Woods market. Paul Azinger represents the best value in this market and as 19 of the last 25 champions have won majors, he fits that category as well. He is a former winner of this event (1993) and has finished 19th and 5th in the last two years as part of the re-discovery of his game. One concern may be a little rustiness - he hasn't played since the Worldcom Classic, but he finished his last four tournaments in the top-15 and was in great form before the break.

Outright plays:

Tiger Woods to win 8/5 @ VIP Sports [2 units]

Paul Azinger to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet247 [w/o Woods market, 1/4 odds, five places]

72-hole plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Robert Allenby -111 @ Ladbrokes
Top-20 finishes in the past two weeks represented a marked upturn in form for Allenby, but he has no form on this course unlike his opponent who is tipped for a high finish this week

Stuart Appleby to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Baddeley is almost an automatic go-against on the PGA Tour - he missed the cut last week despite an encouraging start. Needless to say he missed the cut here last year and while Appleby should not trouble the leaderboard this week, he should easily defeat Baddeley

Scott Verplank to beat Mark Brooks -111 @ Simon Bold
Brooks may be a major winner, but his game is nowhere near the level of one at the moment. He has struggled on this course and has struggled this year. Should be a straightforward win for Verplank

Glen Day to beat Robert Damron -111 @ Simon Bold
It was a return back to type after his win at the Byron Nelson, so against a player who has finished 11th and 4th in his last two events, Damron looks one to oppose

For those w/o Simon Bold accounts, Five Dimes should have these matchups on offer later tonight. Did like a couple of Mediate plays, but on hearing he may be injured ...

Adding 72-hole play:

Tiger Woods -5.5 strokes to beat Scott Hoch -175 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Great prop! Woods' record against Hoch with the prop has been 4-0 this year and 12-2 since the start of last year. Hoch will probably have to finish 2nd to cover this one. 

1st round plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Scott McCarron -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Sergio Garcia to beat Scott Hoch -115 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-0-1 and +1.00 units

Garcia had a fairly straightforward two-shot win over Hoch - it was always going to be too high a target for Hoch to reach - but in the other match both players threw away shots down the stretch. Have to be happy with a push in that situation. Much better are the 72-hole plays and outrights. The 72-hole plays stand 4-0-1 after 18 holes: Azinger leads Allenby by one, Appleby leads Baddeley by four, Verplank leads Brooks by six, Day and Damron are tied, and Woods leads Hoch by two. With both Woods and Azinger in the top-5, it has been a very satisfactory start to the week!

2nd round plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Robert Allenby -120 @ Five Dimes

Fred Couples to beat Stuart Appleby -120 @ Five Dimes

Joe Durant to beat Brad Faxon -125 @ Five Dimes

Harrison Frazar to beat Billy Mayfair +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Frank Lickliter to beat Jeff Sluman -115 @ Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat Scott Verplank -120 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-4-0 and -0.80 units

Small loss on the day to negate most of yesterday's gains. At least the three-unit play won to make it a break-even day: Frazar beat Mayfair by one. In the rest, DiMarco lost to Allenby by one, Couples lost to Appleby by four, Durant lost to Faxon by four, Lickliter lost to Sluman by three and Sutton beat Verplank by one.

Day's late collapse means he misses the cut - he lost by seven to Damron in the only 72-hole play decided at the cut. At least the other four are leading: Azinger by three over Allenby, Appleby by seven over Baddeley, Verplank by six over Brooks and Woods by two over Hoch. With Zinger leading the tournament and Tiger 3rd, this could yet be a very good week!

3rd round plays:

Mike Weir to beat Rich Beem -155 @ GoTo Casino

Kevin Sutherland to beat John Daly -115 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

Dennis Paulson to beat Rory Sabbatini -140 @ Five Dimes

Moneyplays' lines not up yet, so may get better odds on the first two matches later

3rd round update: 3-0-0 and +4.00 units

A good day, despite the rain! Weir beat Beem by five shots, Sutherland beat Daly by four and Paulson beat Sabbatini by seven. Nice, healthy margins. The four remaining 72-hole plays are all ahead, though most have yet to complete 54 holes: Azinger leads Allenby by three, Appleby leads Baddeley by ten, Verplank leads Brooks by two and Woods leads Hoch by two. With Azinger 1st and Woods 2nd for the outrights, a rain-shortened event might not be that disastrous

4th round plays:

Scott Verplank to beat Robert Allenby -110 @ Five Dimes

Greg Chalmers to beat Charles Howell -130 @ Carib

Vijay Singh to beat Sergio Garcia +110 @ Five Dimes

Final update: 0-2-1 and -2.40 units for the day; 10-8-2 and +4.58 units for the week

Disappointing way to end an otherwise very satisfactory week. Verplank lost by three to Allenby, Chalmers bogeyed the last to lose by one to Howell, but at least Singh birdied the last to tie with Garcia. Verplank's 76 meant he could only tie with Brooks which meant a lost play at Simon Bold, but at least the other three remaining 72-hole won: Azinger beat Allenby by three, Appleby beat Baddeley by ten and Woods beat Hoch by eleven.

Update on outright plays: 2-0 and +17.95 units

He took his time, but Tiger did eventually win by a merry mile. Seven shots to be exact. With Zinger finishing 2nd and so winning the "w/o Woods" play, the only blot on the week's outrights was that he shared 2nd place with Garcia, reducing the payout by just over half. Still can't complain when your two picks finish 1-2