Mercedes Championship

The PGA Tour season kicks off with a Tournament of Champions and quality of the field certainly puts the World Matchplay in the shade. With Woods having won nine Tour events last year, the field is smaller than usual, though it must still be remembered that he won less than 50% of the PGA Tour events he entered last year. It was important 12 months ago that Woods began the season with a win - and the manner in which he beat Els was enthralling - and it is the same this year if the aura of invincibility is to remain.

The course certainly suits the long-hitters and shot-makers, being a very rare par-73 on the Tour and measuring 7,263 yards. Designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw it has hosted a Tour event every year since it opened in 1991. First the Lincoln Mercury Kapalua International and since 1999, the Mercedes Championship. It is noteworthy for two features. The first is that was built on the side of a mountain and so the fairways and greens have some quite severe slopes. With it also being exposed to ocean winds, this combination made it a none-too-popular venue for the International. It is worth noting that when the winds blew on the first two days last year, the scoring average was 74.65; over the calmer weekend the average was 71.40. The second feature is size of the greens. They average 9,500 square feet; by means of comparison the average size of the greens at the Tucson Open this week will be 5,000 square feet. Length, good ball control in wind and good long-distance putting will be important this week.

Everything points to a Tiger Woods victory this week and I agree given the odds available. There may be concerns about rustiness at this time of the year, but lack of preparation is not a charge that can be levelled at this player. The defending champion, he was 5th two years ago behind the runaway winner Duval and averages more than 4-under-par per round on this course despite the high winds during last year's competition. With only Duval, Mickelson and Els being serious contenders for this trophy, he looks tempting with odds of 13/8 being rare on the blonde(!) bombshell.

With a double-play on Woods, the conservative approach to the early season outrights is continued with an each-way play on Duval as the only other pick. No repeat of last year's off-season weights program and Duval should be some way to being the #1 challenger to Woods this year. His putter was in good form in the World Cup in Argentina and he returns to a course on which he has returned finishes of 1st (by nine shots) and 3rd to have the lowest scoring average on this course of any player. With the place bet being paid on the first four places in a field of just 33 players, this looks a solid, if conservative, play.

Outright plays:

Tiger Woods to win 13/8 @ Simon Bold [2 units]

David Duval to win e/w 10/1 @ Ladbrokes

72-hole plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Notah Begay -130 @ WSEX
The winner of last year's Hawaiian Open and great player in wind, Zinger should certainly be in the frame this week and Begay is one to oppose this week; he is neither long nor a good putter and last year's performance reflected that

Jesper Parnevik to beat Notah Begay -139 @ Centrebet
Again opposing Begay with a surely-fit-again Parnevik. The Swede has a low ball flight and was on top of the putting stats at the start of last year, he should be at least mid-table

Jim Furyk to beat Tom Lehman +100 @ WSEX
9th and 4th the last two years here, plus a winner of the Kapalua International in 1995, Furyk should again play well here even if not fully fit. Didn't see much from Lehman last week to suggest a leaderboard slot this week

Scott Verplank to beat Rory Sabbatini -160 @ Five Dimes
Two of the more surprising winners on Tour last year, but Verplank is much more experienced in this quality of field and far more consistent - he has recorded top-25 finishes in almost half of event entered in the past 3 year; more than twice the percentage Sabbatini has achieved

Scott Verplank to beat Kirk Triplett -110 @ Surrey [2 units]
Triplett was another surprising winner last season and didn't get beyond the 1st round last week, losing to Glen Day. Verplank stayed for another day by dispatching Harrington and losing only to the eventual winner. Looks in much the better form and as with Sabbatini, more comfortable in this type of field

1st round plays:

Jim Furyk to beat Jim Carter -165 @ Intertops [2 units]

David Duval to beat David Toms -150 @ Victor Chandler

Ernie Els to beat Rocco Mediate -175 @ Intertops [2 units]

Biting the chalk, but believe this three really do outclass their opponents & have great course form. Discounting Els' performance last week as being just that of a unwilling participant

Adding 1st round play:

Scott Verplank to beat Rory Sabbatini -145 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

1st round update: 2-2 and -0.40 units

Convincing 11-shot win for Furyk over Carter, while Els really did show that last week was a result of indifference in his two-shot victory over Mediate. Bad losses with Verplank and Duval though: Verplank trailed a resurgent Sabbatini by five, while Duval had a very poor back nine, but was always in difficulty against Toms who eventually won by three.

2nd round plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Stewart Cink +105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Chris DiMarco to beat Justin Leonard +120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Rocco Mediate to beat Dennis Paulson +100 @ Surrey

2nd round update: 1-1-1 and -1.00 units

Up in all three for virtually the whole, a bit galling to end the day with a loss. DiMarco failed to take advantage of the closing par-fives and it let Cink catch and overtake him by two shots. Leonard rediscovered his game in the middle of the back nine and secured a push, while at least Mediate was good enough to break 70 and beat Paulson by three.

3rd round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat Brad Faxon -110 @ Five Dimes

Scott Verplank to beat Paul Azinger +105 @ Five Dimes

David Duval to beat David Toms -170 @ Five Dimes

Steve Lowery to beat Duffy Waldorf +105 @ Five Dimes

Jesper Parnevik to beat David Toms +110 @ Victor Chandler

3rd round update: 1-3-1 and -2.10 units

Three losing days out of three   Duval's 65 was the only win from the day as he beat Toms by two, but Allenby lost by two, Verplank by three and Parnevik by five though he had been at least tied with Toms for much of the day. Waldorf had been 3-over, but a good back nine secured a push against our pick, Steve Lowery. Forgettable event so far!

4th round plays:

Kirk Triplett to beat Michael Clark -120 @ Intertops [2 units]

Chris DiMarco to beat Brad Faxon +105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Ernie Els +100 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]

Justin Leonard to beat Jim Furyk +100 @ Carib

Final update: 1-3-0 and -3.30 units for the day; 5-9-2 and -7.60 units for the week

Very poor   Four losing day of four, an overall loss on the 72-hole matchups and no outright winners. The results: Triplett lost by one to Clark despite leading until the death, DiMarco beat Faxon by three, Singh lost by two to Els and Leonard lost by four to the winner, Jim Furyk.

The 72-hole picks finished 3-2-0, but this showed a loss. The results: Verplank/Triplett 9 down; Verplank/Sabbatini 16 down; Parnevik/Begay 12 up; Furyk/Lehman 15 up; Azinger/Begay 14 up.

Update on outright plays: 0-2 and -3.00 units

Not even close. Duval finished 7th and Woods 8th. Enough said. Need a decent Monday at the Tucson Open to avoid an opening week loss on the PGA Tour.