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Michelob Championship

Formerly known as the Anheuser Busch Golf Classic, this event has been staged at the Kingsmill Golf Club on the banks of the James River in historic colonial Williamsburg since 1981. The event has become associated with David Duval's breakthrough win (1997) and it is no surprise that he heads the market once again. He also leads the tournament money list from Scott Hoch who has the distinction of playing in event 18 times and never missing a cut. Only one player has played every time this event has been staged at Kingsmill: Curtis Strange. He lives on the course and has his own equivalent to Arnie's Army, "Strange's Navy". Enough said!

The River Course at Kingsmill was designed by Pete Dye, and in typical Dye fashion, course management rather than power is key around this course. It features tight, rolling fairways and multi-tiered greens that are well protected by bunkers and water. There are only 3 par-fives and the course, lengthened in 1998, measures only 6,853 yards. Other important features of this course are the grass and the greens. The course is unusual in that it uses two types of grass. Since it is far enough north to escape the intense heat, the greens are the much smoother Bentgrass. At the same time, the course is far enough south to allow Bermudagrass on both the tees and fairways. Given that the greens at the Texas Open were Bermudagrass, last players may find it a little difficult to adjust this week.

The outright selections for this event are Jim Furyk, Nick Price and Kevin Sutherland. All three missed last week's event and all three come into the event in good form, but without particularly good course form. It has been a feature of the last three champions - David Toms, Notah Begay and David Duval - that they had particularly bad course form before managing to lift this trophy. Furyk has been in great form in the last two months, securing runners-up spots in the Buick Open and NEC Invitational and having a storming weekend in his last event, the Pennsylvania Classic, to finish 11th. He has improved each year he has played Kingsmill - 19th last year - and with the ideal game for the course, he should improve again.

Price has not played on this course since 1991 when he finished 8th, but while he is not the player of ten years ago, he is still very accurate off the tee and at his best on tight, challenging courses. Two weeks ago at the Pennsylvania Classic, he finished 5th after leading after 18 holes and is in good enough form to secure another top-5 finish, if not secure his first win for two years.

Sutherland's form on this course is the worst of the three: a best of 39th in five starts. But with 66/1 and five places on offer it is hard to ignore the fact that he has finished in the top-5 in both of his last two events, the Air Canada Championship and the Pennsylvania Classic, with the latter finish achieved with an opening 76! Not the best driver on Tour - he ranks 141st in Total Driving - he is a much better player in the important categories for this course: 8th in Greens in Regulation and 22nd in Putting Average. Those are not the stats and finishes of a 66/1 player.

Outright plays:

Jim Furyk to win 16/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or BetSmart

Nick Price to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet

Kevin Sutherland to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or Sporting Odds

72-hole plays:

Billy Andrade to beat Tom Scherrer -111 @ Simon Bold
Scherrer may have finished in the top-5 in the last two years in this event, but his current form is very poor. He missed ten cuts in a row before his 17th place finish last week and even then he threw away a strong position on Sunday. Andrade has been playing well in the past couple of months and will make the cut to win this match 

Steve Flesch to beat David Gossett -135 @ Camelot [2 units]
Continuing to oppose Gossett who I feel is overvalued since winning the John Deere Classic. Just one top-20 finish since that victory and every round over par in both his missed cuts on this course are enough reason for me to oppose him again. Flesch continues to accumulate dollars without threatening to win an event, such as last year, but this should still be enough to defeat Gossett 

Dudley Hart to beat David Gossett -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Hart broke a fine run of form two weeks ago when he missed the cut - he had secured four top-10 finishes in seven event - but given that this was the first event after September 11th then I am not placing too much weight on it. A resumption of his previous form and Hart should win this with ease

Larry Mize to beat David Gossett -120 @ Victor Chandler
Mize is playing his best golf for years and finished strongly to lie 17th at the end of last week's event. No repeat of his 2nd place in Pennsylvania, but enough proof that that was no fluke. On a tight course, Mize should have another good week. Needless to say, Bet365 have not repeated their 125/1 on him this week!

Adding:

Justin Leonard to beat Charles Howell -115 @ Carib
Going against previous advice and siding with a player who played last week ... consolation is that both of Leonard's opponents also played last week. It is not often that I back the previous week's winner, but Leonard (because of his swing) is a streaky player and should carry his confidence forward to this week. The shortness of the course also favors his game and not that of the big-hitting Howell who, for all the expectations of him, has only achieved four top-10 finishes this season; Leonard has achieved nine.

Justin Leonard to beat David Toms -111 @ UKBetting
Toms comes here as defending champion, but looked very rusty and his game looked out-of-sorts last week. Prior to his win last year, he had a poor record on this course and this should be a week in which he should improve, but not drastically. Looking to get back the lost unit on Toms from last week by backing Leonard here

Grant Waite to beat Tom Scherrer -110 @ Surrey
Adding another play against Scherrer. If he didn't already have exemption for next year's Tour - by winning the 2000 Kemper Open - he would be panicking right now. He currently lies 163rd in the money list and that sums up his year. Waite secured 8th place in his last event - the Air Canada Championship - to secure his playing privileges for next season and is much more likely to reach the weekend and secure a decent finish. He did finish 2nd in 1997.

Mid-point update:

Disappointing tournament typified when Dudley Hart withdrew with a pulled rib cage muscle when 4 shots ahead of Gossett All seven matchups are decided at the cut and only two are winners, though there would have been a small profit had Hart won. Flesch beat Gossett by three and Mize beat him by two. As for the losses, Andrade lost by one, Leonard lost by ten to Howell and eleven to Toms, Waite lost by four to Scherrer and then there was Dudley ...  Little joy in the outrights. Furyk missed the cut and Price lies 50th, though if Sutherland could get a place finish this event may not be such a write-off.

Final update: 2-5-0 and -3.69 units

If Dudley Hart had remained fit and beaten Gossett, there would have been a small profit on the week, but that would have been very lucky ... the sole wins were in opposing Gossett and apart from that success, I didn't have much of a handle on this tournament at all!

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Furyk missed the cut, Price finished 26th and Sutherland 32nd. None of them were even close to being in contention this week.