National Car Rental Golf Classic

As the season draws to a close and the scramble for to hold onto a Tour reaches its frenetic finale, we the second pro-am in as many weeks! I am not a fan of these formats and I'm sure that the players who livelihoods depend on these last few weeks do not appreciate them either. Thirty-two of this week's field have played in every event in the last two months and thirty-two more have missed just one event in that time. Neither is by choice, but necessity. It may be Disney time, but there'll be a lot of people not enjoying this week.

The format is two days of playing with the amateurs over two courses, the Magnolia & Palm courses at the Walt Disney World Resort, with the tougher Magnolia being the venue for the two weekend rounds. As with any pro-am setup, the emphasis is not on accurate driving, wide fairways lessen the embarrassment of the amateurs and reward the longer-hitting pros: the winners in the last five years have been Tiger twice, Duval, Huston and Waldorf. There are also ample amounts of water and sand to make accurate iron play also important and with Bermuda grass in use again on the greens, putting specialists of this strain will be particularly favored though the pin are traditionally put in very easy positions on the first two days.

The three outright selections for this event are Davis Love, Scott Verplank and Chris DiMarco. Love broke the course record at Summerlin on Sunday to finish 4th so there can be little doubt that he is swinging well and his confidence is high. He comes to an event in which he has played well in the past, almost winning in 1998, and ranks, like the other two selections, in the top-10 in Birdie Leaders on the Tour. 

While Love is a better player at taking the lead than keeping it, Verplank has shown that he is just as good a front-runner. He won the Canadian Open last month and finished 7th last week to indicate that his form is good and with finishes of 17th and 4th in the last two years in this event, he is another who could capitalize on Tiger's rustiness to claim victory.

DiMarco has only won once on Tour - the 2000 Pennsylvania Classic - but has been a model of consistency since June. Apart from the British Open, he has finished in the top-20 of every event since the St. Jude Classic and in the top-3 on three occasions. Like the other two selections, good course form - top-20 in the last two years - and standing high in the Birdie Leaders category make him a easy selection.

The prices on Love and DiMarco at Camelot are a bonus, so the play is 1/2 unit on these to win with the other 1/2 unit to place to follow when Olympic release their 'show' odds.

Outright plays:

Davis Love to win 20/1 @ Camelot [1/2 unit; rest of play to follow]

Scott Verplank to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365

Chris DiMarco to win 40/1 @ Camelot [1/2 unit; rest of play to follow]

To complete outright plays, adding:

Davis Love to show 3/1 @ Olympic [1/2 unit]

Chris DiMarco to show 6/1 @ Olympic [1/2 unit]

72-hole plays:

Tom Lehman to beat Robert Allenby -110 @ Surrey
Looking for a big week from Lehman who features heavily in the matchups rather than as an outright play. Had an excellent weekend when many other players would have wilted after opening with 63-62. The continued easy setup and pro-am format would appear to suit and he has two top-15 finishes in his last three visits. Opposing Allenby who has been playing well, but has opted to play in this event just once - he missed the cut in 1999 - and prefers tougher setups

Tom Lehman to beat Paul Azinger -115 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Zinger has had some decent finishes in this event, but his recent performances have been a pale shadow of his early season form when he consistently finished in the top-20; he has only done so once in his last five starts

Tom Lehman to beat John Daly +100 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Opposing Daly was a very bad strategy last week, but I still stick to the same principles this week. Big John will now be playing his eighth event in ten weeks with two flights to Germany in that period, one five-day event and one week in which there was an enforced rest because of the cancellation of the Tampa Bay Classic. His record in pro-ams is very poor - last week's finish was his best in these events for five years - and without the adrenalin of a good start, he will surely fade away. Might be wrong, but he can't keep up the intensity of his game forever.

Scott Verplank to beat John Daly -125 @ Sportingbet
Verplank is an outright selection in fine form and should have a good week. Daly, on the other hand, remains totally unpredictable

Vijay Singh to beat John Daly -110 @ Bet365
Maybe not expecting a great week from Vijay, but he displayed enough good form last week when losing to Sam Torrance that he is playing far better than when he missed his last two cuts on Tour. With an excellent record in this event - top-20 on all three visits - he should continue that run at least

Davis Love to beat Scott Hoch -150 @ Camelot
Hoch's good form came to an abrupt end last month with missed cuts in his last two events when previously one of the most consistent players on Tour. With a poor record in this event, there seems little reason to side with him this week, particularly against an outright selection

Davis Love to beat Bernhard Langer -154 @ Centrebet
Langer has had great success in Europe this season and on this Tour earlier in the season, but this is not a good event for him. He very seldom plays in pro-ams - just seven times in his career and not since 1989 - and, like Allenby, is much more suited to tougher courses

John Huston to beat Tom Pernice -145 @ Camelot
Huston has had a difficult summer, but his 22nd place in Pennsylvania was his best finish since the Masters. But Pernice has not been playing particularly well either - a best of 37th in his last five tournaments - and he doesn't have the advantage of good course form. He has missed the cut here three times out of four whereas Huston is a former winner and is well-known for shooting low on easy courses, particularly on Bermuda greens

Mid-point update:

Just one play is decided at the cut - Love beat Hoch by seven shots. Decent position in the other plays at this stage: Lehman is tied with Allenby and leads Azinger by one, Love leads Langer by six and Huston is tied with Pernice. While Daly was "disqualified" for not informing officials he had withdrawn, he failed to tee off so the three plays against him are all void. In the outrights, Love is best-placed in 3rd position and while Verplank and DiMarco are 39th they are only four shots out of a top-5 position

Final update: 5-0-0 and +6.00 units

Nice sweep to complete a good tournament. Lehman beat Allenby by five and Azinger by one, Love beat Langer by nine and Huston beat Pernice by one. Very satisfying.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.50 units

Love pushed Coceres all the way, but just came up one short. He finished 2nd to secure a break-even week on the matchups. Verplank finished 46th and DiMarco 32nd after being in contention for three days.