Nissan Open

The end of 'giggle golf' and hopefully the beginning of the regular, and more predictable, section of the season. Not that looking at last year's leaderboard would suggest that! Not only did Kirk Triplett win the event after winless starts on the PGA Tour, but the top-10 contained just one Major winner: Fred Couples. That is noteworthy as since 1989, with the exception of 1991, the winner at Riviera was also a Major winner. I think we can dismiss last year's result as the exception; it is the pedigree of the course that produces the pedigree of the winner.

This is a true Championship course; no other on the PGA Tour has the distinction of hosting the US PGA, the US Open and the US Senior Open. Only Pebble Beach has held two of these three Majors. Short by Tour standards at under 7000 yards and a par-71, length is still important as the Kikuyu fairways which are so unusual in the United States do not allow much roll. The greens are of average size for the Tour and of the Bentgrass version.

The three picks for this event are Davis Love, Scott Verplank and Nick Price. Love has a strange routine with this event: he has played it every 2nd year since 1993, so it is not clear whether he likes this course or not. On the basis that he finished 2nd on his last visit in 1999 and has two other top-3 finishes here in the 1990s, he should have been a more frequent visitor. That said, given his current form he should be able to compete on any course. With Tiger still inflating the odds for the rest of the field, at least a top-5 finish should be easily within reach.

Someone in similar form is Scott Verplank. While his record at Riviera is anything but impressive, he has  ended his last two tournaments in the top-5 and like any Major champion, he ranks high in the greens in regulation stats. So high, that he is currently ranked #1 this year and #4 in driving accuracy. His performances have improved enormously since he began wearing his diabetes belt last year and for the meantime, he remains a good value player.

Finally, Nick Price gets the nod as the 3rd pick and as the 2nd Major winner among them. He has played this event in the last two years, finishing 5th in 1999 and was only 3 shots out of the lead going into the final round last year before a 75 plummeted him down the leaderboard. He has played once on the PGA Tour, finishing 13th in the Phoenix Open and was 4th the following week at the Dimension Data pro-am. While he may not win very often these days, he has not lost the ability to complete at the highest level, especially on the more classic golf courses. Often undervalued because of his age, he should have a good shot at a place finish.

Outright plays:

Davis Love to win 12/1 e.w @ Surrey

Scott Verplank to win 40/1 e.w @ Surrey and Victor Chandler

Nick Price to win 33/1 e.w @ Surrey

72-hole plays:

Stewart Cink to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @ Ladbrokes
Cink is currently going through a good week, bad week phase at the moment - 12th, mc, 9th, mc - so as he missed the cut last week he should do well here! He was 5th last year, but should not need that to beat the still errant driving of Olazabal

Fred Couples to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -133 @ Centrebet
A course specialist again one who struggles to stay on the course. Couples has won twice here, been twice a further three times and a further seven top-10s including 5th last year. This should not be close

Kirk Triplett to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -110 @ Carib [2 units]
I can't understand why Olazabal features in so many matchups this week, but this one, against the defending champion as joint favorite, is quite a surprise. Triplett will probably not repeat last year's feat, but he has a good long-term record on this course and should play better this week

Scott Verplank to beat Shigeki Maruyama -130 @ Sportfanatik or Intertops [3 units]
Maruyama has been in decent form of late, but he missed the cut last year and surely cannot compete with the rejuvenated Verplank seeking a trio of top-5 finishes

Nick Price to beat Mike Weir +115 @ Canbet [2 units]
Impressive form of late from the Canadian, but it is hard not to oppose someone who has missed the cut on their last three visits to Riviera. To do so with an outright pick and '+' odds is a bonus

Adding:

Justin Leonard to beat Shigeki Maruyama -110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Leonard finished last week 66-65-68 to show that he has his game back under control. He should prosper on this short, tight course and is another pick to oppose Maruyama this week

Update:

Four plays are decided at the cut as two of the three go-againsts don't make it to the weekend. Mike Weir was one of those and it afforded Nick Price a five-shot win. Jose Maria Olzabal was the other and it afforded Stewart Cink a six-shot win, but Fred Couples was one-shot the wrong side of Olazabal. The shock of the day was the collapse of Kirk Triplett who was leading the tournament mid-way through his front-nine and then collapsed completely to a 81 and three-shot loss to Olazabal. So much for this being "the beginning of the regular, and more predictable, section of the season"!

Just two plays remain alive, but they are being frustrated by a better-than-expected performance by Maruyama. He leads Verplank by six and Leonard by five. The outrights look more promising yet again: Love is joint leader after 36 holes, while Price is in 16th place just 3 shots behind, while Verplank may be in 67th place but is only seven shots out of the lead.

3rd round plays:

Doug Barron to beat Emanuele Canonica -135 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Brandel Chamblee -110 @ Moneyplays

Stewart Cink to beat Bradley Hughes -130 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Shigeki Maruyama +100 @ WSEX

Billy Mayfair to beat Jeff Sluman +100 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Scott McCarron -145 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 4-2-0 and +2.65 units

A satisfying day  - and there haven't been that many with the matchups so far this year! Perry missed a six-foot putt on the last, but we were fortunate that it didn't cost anything as Chamblee followed him with a double-bogey to hand Perry a one-shot victory   I think I was owed that one! Perry's two other wins were convincing though: by 3 shots over Maruyama and by 4 shots over McCarron. In the others, Cink beat Hughes by three, but there was a two-shot loss for Mayfair and a four-shot loss for Barron.

Maruyama's difficulties also improved the 72-hole plays. He now has only a two-shot advantage over both Verplank and Leonard which were 3- and 2-unit plays respectively. Need one of those to make this a good week. At least the outrights look good with Love having a 3-shot lead at the top of the leaderboard and Price looking very promising for a place finish given his current 6th place standing. Verplank is will not lose the outright play, but as long as he beats Maruyama ...

Back with 4th round plays tomorrow.

4th round plays:

Corey Pavin to beat Craig Barlow -110 @ Sportfanatik

Neal Lancaster to beat David Berganio -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry to beat Greg Chalmers -115 @ Moneyplays

Chris Perry to beat Stewart Cink +105 @ WSEX

Justin Leonard to beat Steve Lowery @ Olympic

Final update: 2-2-1 and -0.25 units for the day; 9-7-1 and +2.97 units for the week

All five matches were pretty close, so a break-even day was justified. The results: Pavin/Barlow 1 down; Lancaster/Berganio all square; Perry/Chalmers 1 up; Perry/Cink 2 up; Leonard/Lowery 2 down. The 72-hole plays improved with Maruyama shooting 75. It meant that Verplank could record a three-shot win, but Leonard still finished three shots behind the 'Smiling Assassin'.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

The old frustrating Love reappeared this afternoon as he threw away three shots on the 15th & 16th when in the lead. Another dropped shot on the last and he finished in 8th place, two shots out of the six-man playoff. Price couldn't buy a birdie and slipped to 20th, while Verplank's final day move was enough to only gain 33rd place.