Pennsylvania Classic

This may be first time that the PGA Tour has stopped in Western Pennsylvania, but this event will be a somber affair. It is the first event after that most fateful of weeks. It is rather surprising that as many as six of the Ryder Cup team have changed their schedules to play in this event. Maybe it is part of the healing process, but the fact that they are here rather than with their families suggests a real determination on their part to be competitive this week. These players seem to be ones to side with this week, while those with New York connections, such as Dudley Hart, are surely ones to avoid.

They play at Laurel Valley which hosted the 36-hole Family House Invitational in 1992 and 1996. The two winners were Bob Tway and Scott Hoch, so this suggests that straight hitting off the tee is required around this course. With the fairways being tree-lined, water a feature on many holes and the greens being heavily-bunkered and severely undulating, accuracy does seem to be of primary importance this week. The course has featured repeatedly in the "Top-100 Courses in the US" listings and will provide a good test for this week's field.

The three selections are Jim Furyk, Scott Verplank and Steve Lowery. With no real course form to use, good current form seems to be especially important this week and these three have just that. Furyk has finished 2nd, 6th and 2nd in his last three events which include a major and WGC event. As a Pennsylvania native, his decision to play this event is understandable and the motivation for a good week should be evident. A short price for an event in which to be cautious, but he should be more focused than most.

Verplank celebrated his wildcard selection for the Ryder Cup with victory in the Canadian Open two weeks ago and with this last-minute decision to play here, is another who can dominate this event if he remains focused. Very straight off the tee and also standing high in the greens in regulation stats, Verplank should at least repeat his top-10 finish in this event last year.

The final selection is Steve Lowery who was not involved in the Ryder Cup deliberations, but comes into the event in great form. His stats may not look great, but his last two finishes have been 3rd at the PGA Championship and 2nd at the Air Canada Championship after a disastrous opening round. As with the other players, there is a question mark over how focused he can be at this time, but when he is playing as well as he has done for years, then he should find it much easier to concentrate on the course.

Outright plays:

Jim Furyk to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

Scott Verplank to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Steve Lowery to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or BetInternet

72-hole plays:

Steve Flesch to beat John Daly +100 @ Sportfanatik
Daly may have won in Europe and finished 4th last time out, but this does not appear to be an open course and one in which his length will be rewarded. Flesch, for his part, has been in much better form in the last two months and with decent odds should give Daly a good match

Steve Lowery to beat John Daly -110 @ Surrey
Again opposing Daly and this time with a player in even better form. Wouldn't want to oppose Daly too many times this week, but will certainly do so with an outright selection

Glen Day to beat Robert Damron -110 @ Sportfanatik
Could be settled early. Damron has a best finish of 37th in the nine starts since winning the Byron Nelson Classic. Easily opposed with a player who is not on top of his game, but has made four of his last five cuts

Kevin Sutherland to beat Lee Janzen -111 @ Simon Bold
Janzen's game is seriously in the dumps. He has missed six of his last eight cuts and is easily opposed with a player who finished 5th in the Air Canada championship on his last outing

Bill Glasson to beat Rory Sabbatini +110 @ Camelot [2 units]
Sabbatini is having an awful season and it started with a runners-up spot in the season-opening Mercedes Championship! He has missed the cut as many times as he has made the weekend and is another big-hitter to oppose this week. Glasson may not be playing that well, but at least he is accurate and more suited to this course

Corey Pavin to beat Rory Sabbatini -110 @ Moneyplays [3 units]
Big contrast in length off the tee and the accuracy of Pavin is the requirement this week. A light schedule, but 14th in his last event, Pavin can keep the ball in play and make it to the weekend which should be enough

Mid-point update:

Three of the six plays are decided at the cut and two are winners. Day beat Damron by three shots, Pavin beat Sabbatini by one shot, while Glasson lost to Sabbatini by three shots. All three remaining plays are ahead though: Flesch leads Daly by five, Lowery leads Daly by two and Sutherland leads Janzen by three. Could be a good week on the matchups, though the prospects on the outrights rest with Steve Lowery alone who is 7th. Furyk missed the cut by a shot and Verplank is nine shots off the pace.

Final update: 5-1-0 and +5.00 units

Very good week on the matchups as opposing the big-hitters paid dividends. Daly may have performed heroics to make the cut - 5-under-par for his last four holes in the 2nd round - but he fell apart in the 3rd round. Flesch beat him by eleven shots and Lowery beat him by six. In the other remaining play, Sutherland beat Janzen by fifteen shots.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Cancelled out some of the matchup winning with a blank on the outrights. Lowery had been best-placed after 36 holes, but fell back to 46th, while Verplank was never in contention and finished 61st. Almost a nice surprise was that Furyk did make the cut on the mark, not as I had reported. He had a strong weekend to finish 11th, but it was still a loss on the play!