Phoenix Open

The Tour finally heads for the mainland and does so in style. Eight of the world's top-10 are competing in the Phoenix Open - just the European duo of Westwood and Monty stay away - and the course is one of the best, and hardest, on Tour. Seven of the thirteen champions since Scottsdale first hosted this event in 1987 have won Major championships and of the rest, Parnevik and Mickelson have gone very close. The Tour has reached full throttle this week.

The event is especially well-remembered for the 1999 staging. It was this year that a half-ton boulder was deemed a 'loose impediment' when nine members of the gallery moved it and it was this year that a man was caught with a gun in Tiger Woods' gallery. After skipping last year's event, Tiger is back and in need of a victory; he hasn't won on the PGA Tour since the Canadian Open four months ago. It must seem like four years for Els since he converted being into contention into a Tour win; he has only had two wins in the last 24 months, but in that time he has finished 2nd eight times and 3rd seven times.

The TPC of Scottsdale is a par-71 course, measuring just over 7,000 yards. It is a links-style course in the middle of the desert, which causes it to play much less than the recorded yardage. With the scrub off the fairway and water on the closing holes, there will be premium on accuracy rather than length off the tee, but given this field and the history of the event, it is very unlikely that there will be a surprise winner. Maybe even Mr. Woods, but at odds of 2/1 is not backable.

The three outright picks are David Duval, Ernie Els and Justin Leonard. Duval's record on this course is not particularly impressive with a record of 14th, 27th, 18th and 30th in the last four years, but Duval is still upbeat about this course: "I like playing here, and I'm surprised I haven't contended a little more seriously than I have". But when three of those years have been dogged by poor final rounds - 78, 73 and 74 - and when last year he had trouble with some of the spectators during his final round, maybe it isn't all bad. He has game has looked in decent shape since his comeback last October and on his favored Bermuda greens this week, he should be in contention throughout.

The next two are purely place bets given their inability to win events! Els' last five events have yielded no wins but five top-four finishes and with a record of 48% top-5 finishes in the last three years, he can surely at least contend again. The problem appears to be more mental than with his game and as long as he doesn't get frustrated, he will win those place bets. Has not played the course in recent years as he has focused more on competing in South Africa and Australia at this time of the year so it is not that he does not like the course as the setup is perfect for his game. 

Justin Leonard won the TPC at Sawgrass in 1998 and then had six 2nd-place finishes before his next win, last year's Texas Open. He has similarly finished 2nd twice in his last five visits to Scottsdale, including losing a playoff to Phil Mickelson and 40,000 of his supporters. With accuracy and a preference for Bermuda greens, Leonard looks a good shot for another 2nd place!

Outright plays:

David Duval to win e/w 12/1 @ First Stake

Ernie Els to be placed [top-4] 5/2 @ Olympic or Centrebet

Justin Leonard to be placed [top-4] 10/1 @ Centrebet

72-hole plays:

Stuart Appleby to beat Notah Begay -135 @ WSEX [3 units]
Definitely more a play against Begay who missed the cut at the Sony Open last week and missed the cut on his only appearance here. It seems a long time since he was challenging for the lead and I cannot see it happening here

Stewart Cink to beat Paul Azinger -110 @ WSEX
Both these players missed the cut last week; especially disappointing for Zinger as defending champion. Decisive difference is their form on this course: Cink has had two successive top-10 finishes, Zinger has missed the cut in three of the last four years

Fred Couples to beat Notah Begay -135 @ Intertops [3 units]
Not the competitive edge that there was, but even Freddie should feature in the top-30 this week and easily beat Begay in the process

Mid-point update:

Two of the three matchups are decided at the cut as Begay finished last! Appleby won by twelve shots and Couples by thirteen. Azinger did make the cut by one, but Cink has a handy nine-shot advantage after 36 holes. Just as well the 72-hole plays are strong as all three outright picks missed the cut

Moneyplays has some lines up despite the 2nd/3rd round chaos, but nothing of note, so no plays until tomorrow.

Final update: 3-0-0 and +7.00 units for the week

Strange week with no 18-hole plays, but a strange week at the Phoenix Open as well! In the remaining 72-hole play, Cink beat Azinger by ten shots. A nice turnaround from some poor matchup plays so far this year on the PGA Tour.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

All three picks missed the cut, so the least said about this event the better!