Sony Open in Hawaii

Three years ago John Huston set a PGA Tour record of 28-under-par for this event. Changes were forthcoming, but they were largely cosmetic. The tees were brought forward at the first and 17th holes to make them par-fours instead of par-fives. Fairways were allegedly narrowed considerably, but it made little difference to scoring. After the winds had blown Jeff Sluman to victory in 1999, Paul Azinger won this event last year, completing the 72-holes in just one shot more than Huston had done in 1998. Accuracy is more important than length off the tee, but the crucial aspect at Waialae is the Bermuda greens. Time and again, good putters and especially good Bermuda green putters have performed well at Waialae.

The outright picks for this event reflect that preference for accuracy over length and for Bermuda over Bentgrass. The first is the single-figure favorite for this event Ernie Els. The 'Big Easy' wins events on tight courses and this is tighter than the average course, but Els' best part of his game, statistically, is his putting and he is well-accustomed to the grainy Bermuda greens on offer this week. He may have looked a little rusty in Melbourne, but for nine holes last Saturday afternoon, he was in a different class to the rest of the field. He can build on that and certainly improve on his debut 5th place here last year.

Ahead of him last year was John Huston in 3rd place. The tightening of the course was supposed to counter Huston's game of 1998, but it seemed to make no difference as he showed last year. All six of his Tour wins have been on Bermuda greens and with a good close to last week's event where he finished 5th, his event should be very high on his list of season priorities.

The final pick is Texan Jeff Maggert who boasts five top-10 finishes in his nine visits to this course. Even before the course was tightened he was performing well here, but since the changes were made he has finished 2nd and 9th last year. For a player who has had difficulties with his game over the last couples of years despite winning the WGC Matchplay in 1999, that is quite a performance. Like the others, he is more accurate than long, better on Bermuda than Bentgrass and comes off a top-10 finish last week. Looks a decent play for a top-5 finish.

Outright plays:

Ernie Els to win 8/1 @ First Stake [same @ Easybets]

John Huston to win 25/1 e/w @ DAS

Jeff Maggert to win 50/1 e/w @ Surrey

72-hole plays [had liked a lot of those available, but whittled them down to these five]:

Stuart Appleby to beat Robert Allenby -110 @ Olympic [3 units]
Looking to oppose Australians this week! Allenby has a poor record on this course - a missed cut and a 39th position - and finished only mid-table last week despite the excellent form he had shown in his native land. With finishes of 9th, 16th and 2nd in the last three years for Appleby, most books rightly have Appleby the favorite, but not Olympic

Davis Love to beat Robert Allenby -135 @ Bowmans [3 units]  * VOID - should read 'Appleby' on Bowmans site *
Again course experience and good putting stats, particularly with a preference for Bermuda greens are the rationale here. Though Love is the most frustrating of players to lay money on, he has finished in the top-10 in his last three appearances here and shot 60 around this course in 1994 

Chris Perry to beat Greg Chalmers -150 @ First Stake [3 units]
Very strange matchup. Perry has not yet repeated his form of 1999, but Chalmers has missed the cut on both his appearances here

Carlos Franco to beat Craig Parry +120 @ SportingbetUSA [2 units]
Franco has shown last year that he can cope with the winds of Hawaii and while he was only mid-table at the Mercedes last week, I think he will again record a top-20 finish. Should be more than enough to beat his opponent who has missed his last two cuts here and also had the weekend off last week

Carlos Franco to beat Rory Sabbatini -110@ Olympic [2 units]
Expecting a reaction from Sabbatini, especially in the way he lost the Mercedes Championship last week. He record of following good finishes is also not good: 3rd in the BellSouth 1999, missed cut the next event; 3rd in the BC Open 1999, 65th the next event; 2nd in the Bob Hope 2000, 58th the next event. Only once has he built on a top-5 finish: he followed his win in last year's Air Canada Championship with 6th place the next week. Finally, Sabbatini has missed the cut on both his appearances here

3rd round update:

The four 72-hole matchups survived the cut and are currently split. Appleby trails Allenby by three as does Perry to Chalmers, but Franco has a two-shot lead over Parry and a three-shot lead over Sabbatini. In the outrights, Maggert is back in 49th place, but Els lies just three shots behind Faxon in 2nd place and Huston overcame an opening hole double-bogey to climb back to 6th place, one-shot out of a place finish.

4th round plays:

Chris DiMarco to beat Brad Faxon -115 @ Carib [3 units]

Ernie Els to beat Brad Faxon -180 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Tom Lehman to beat Brad Faxon -135 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Franklin Langham to beat Bradley Hughes -140 @ Five Dimes

72-hole continuation play:

Davis Love to beat Vijay Singh -154 @ DAS [3 units]  (2 shots ahead)

4th round update: 1-4 and -11.30 units; 3-6-0 and -14.70 units for the week

The incredibly bad matchup performance continues   Lost all four round four plays with Faxon defying my expectations that he would crumble. He eagled the last to beat Lehman by one, Els by four and DiMarco by seven. Langham lost out by one to Hughes, while the only success of the day was Love's ability to hold on to his lead against Singh; he finished 3 ahead. The 72-hole plays remained split with Franco defeating Parry by one and Sabbatini by four, while Appleby lost to Allenby by one and Perry lost to Chalmers by nine.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Els disappointed and never looked to threaten Faxon even before he double-bogeyed the 8th; he finished 3rd. Huston similarly had an early double-bogey to kill his chances of a payoff; he finished 14th, while Maggert finished in 37th place.