Southern Farm Bureau Classic

The PGA Tour season starts as it ends with two events. One for the top-30 players on Tour and one for the rest. A player would have to finish in the top-5 in this event to earn as much money as the last-placed player in the Tour Championship! But it has always been a difficult history for this event since its founding in 1968. Originally, it was played opposite the MasterCard Colonial. The event then spent 25 years opposite The Masters before moving to a mid-summer position opposite the British Open. It moved to its end-of-season position in 1999 and to lose just 30 players to a important competition is an improvement, I suppose.

Apart from the issue of the top-125 positions on the Money List which will be decided this week, other positions are almost as important. A top-40 spot will gain entry to the Masters next year, while an improbable jump into the top-30 will guarantee entry into the other majors next year. They face a Jack Nicklaus-designed course that is atypically tight. The course is not long, but with water and narrow tree-lined fairways greeting the players, it is little surprise that Fred Funk has played so well at Annandale. The greens are small and Bentgrass, but it accuracy off the tee that will determine the winner this week.

The three selections are Kirk Triplett, Chris Riley and Skip Kendall. All three have great course form. Triplett has never won this event, but was 2nd by a shot to Willie Wood in 1996 and in four visits to Annandale he has never shot a single round over-par and has never finished outside the top-15. He did miss the cut last week despite a valiant attempt on his last nine holes to claw back into the tournament, but having had two fine events in October, he looks to be a leading contender this week.

Chris Riley can gain entry to his first Masters with a good performance this week and all the indications are that he should. He finished 6th last year with every round in the 60s and has been in great form since finishing 2nd in the International - an event that he should have won - with top-15 finishes in six of his last eight events. In this form he warrants the short price.

Like Triplett, Skip Kendall is a selection who has been a runner-up in this event and that was only last year when he lost in a playoff to Steve Lowery holed a 40-foot putt from off the green. He is the only selection to have played in all four events in October - like so many of the field - but he finished in the top-25 on each occasion and secured a season-high finish of 6th in the NCR Classic. It was his only top-10 of the year and has erased all worries of falling out of the top-125 on the Money List. Playing the best golf of the year and on a course which is set up for his accuracy, he should play well.

Outright plays:

Kirk Triplett to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or Heathorns

Chris Riley to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet

Skip Kendall to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or Victor Chandler

72-hole plays:

Loren Roberts to beat Billy Andrade -120 @ Intertops
Quite a collapse of form from Andrade. He recorded three top-5 finishes from the Buick Classic to the PGA Championship but has since missed four of his last five cuts, including his last three. Roberts bounced back from a poor run to finish 17th last week and though he hasn't played this course, it should suit his game

Jeff Maggert to beat Briny Baird -110 @ Camelot
Maggert has yet to play this course, but like Roberts, he should have the ideal game for Annandale. Coming off a 6th place finish last week he should be looking for another strong performance and he should beat Baird who has failed to finish in the top-30 in his last six events

Kirk Triplett to beat John Daly -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Strongest play of the week because this is not a course for Daly. In four previous visits he has a best finish of 36th and after struggling, as expected, last week, he should find things much easier at Annandale. Easy side with the outright pick

Carlos Franco to beat Carl Paulson -111 @ Simon Bold
For all that Franco is inaccurate off the tee, he has maintained a number good finishes in the last few months. Can't see him winning this event, but a top-30 spot is expected. Not so for Paulson who is really feeling the pressure of the top-125. Since the cancellation of the Tampa Bay Classic, he has played in every event (seven) and his finishes have gradually worsened. He fell seven places to 117th on the Money List last week and is an easy player to oppose

Bob Tway to beat Brian Henninger -111 @ Simon Bold
Henninger has won this event on two occasions (1994 & 1999) and on both occasions they were rain-shortened events. Now his two-year exemption from winning the 1999 event is about to expire and he is going to lose his Tour Card unless he wins this week. Can't see that happening from a player who has missed the cut on 18 of 28 starts this season and nor will he beat a player who has made the cut in his last ten events and finished 20th on this course last year

Skip Kendall to beat Brett Quigley -111 @ Ladbrokes
No worries about next year's Tour Card for Quigley, but more worrying will be the effect of playing in the high winds at Capitol Hill last weekend in the Buy.com Tour Championship. It will not have done his swing any favors and with the course set up to reward accuracy not length off the tee, it is no surprise that he has struggled here in recent years. Easy side with the outright pick

Loren Roberts to beat Brett Quigley -110 @ Victor Chandler
No course form, but a decent performance last week from Roberts and he looks set for a top-30 finish. Should be enough to beat Quigley on this course

Mid-point update:

Two plays are decided at the cut and both are winners. Roberts beat Andrade by three shots and Tway beat Henninger by eight. Not such good news with the other plays as they are all losing: Maggert/Baird 5 down; Franco/Paulson 5 down; Kendall/Quigley 3 down; Roberts/Quigley 4 down. None of the outrights are in winning positions either - Triplett 10th, Riley 19th, Kendall 41st - so the weekend can only see an improvement!

Final update: 2-4-0 and -2.42 units

All four remaining plays were losing after 36 holes and all lost after 72   A couple did get close, but not a good event. The results: Maggert/Baird 2 down; Franco/Paulson 5 down; Kendall/Quigley 11 down; Roberts/Quigley 1 down.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Triplett looked like he might sneak a place finish, but he came home in 40 to free-fall to 23rd place. The other two never threatened. Riley finished 37th and Kendall 57th.