St. Jude Classic

Very strange week! The week before the US Open and some of the toughest conditions the players will find all season and the PGA Tour swaps this event and the Buick Classic so there is an easy course played the week before the Open. As a result only one player from the World top-10 is here and just five from the top-25. At least the Senior PGA Tour got it right and delivered the easy Springhouse course as a sweetener for the pros who had had to endure Ridgewood at the Senior PGA Championship the week before. The other strange feature about this week is Mickelson's entry. Is he trying to avoid playing against Tiger? He skipped the prestigious Memorial Tournament which is played on a course with a Major set up and has played in the rather second-rate Kemper Open and St Jude Classic. Hardly ideal preparation for the US Open. Very strange indeed!

As for the course itself, Southwind is not long, a par-71, and there is a complete absence of bunkers or hazards at the landing areas. It makes scoring very low and a birdie-fest is an annual occurrence here. Again, hardly ideal preparation for the US Open! But this is also a specialist event. The course features a spongy type of grass called Zoysia, which sits the ball up on the rolling fairways.  This can cause a bit of difficulty with long iron approach shots, needing someone with course experience to play the shot. The rough is Bermuda grass which will ensure the ball will nestle down even if the rough is not long. There is an acquired taste to this course and the hot, humid conditions that greet the players this week.

Avoiding Mickelson who doesn't convert enough top-3 finishes into wins to justify his single-figure odds this week, the three selections are Scott Hoch, David Toms and Kirk Triplett. Hoch has never actually finished in the top-5 in this event, despite liking the hot and humid conditions. He is a selection on his current form which has seen him record just one round over par in his last sixteen and that was last Sunday and solely because of the two-shot penalty he incurred when sparring with a tree. With one win already this year, he should have a career-best this year at Southwind.

The second pick is David Toms who is in just as good form as Hoch. His only round over par in the last twelve was at the Compaq Classic which he won and his last four finishes read: 9th, 1st, 11th and 8th. Also like Hoch, his record is not that spectacular here with a career-best of 15th last year, though for a 3rd round 75 it would have been very much better, and again like Hoch, he has the perfect game for this course: not long off the tee, but straight and with good all-round stats. On current form, he should also post a Southwind career-best this week.

Having stated that this is a specialist event, then at least one pick should have a decent track record here and that is Kirk Triplett. Of his 32 rounds at Southwind, only one has been over par (73, 1993) and he has finished in the top-15 in five of the last six seasons. His best finish this season has been 6th at the Masters, so he is a decent price, but given his history here and the similarity of his short, but accurate game to those of Hoch and Toms, he is expected to feature at some stage this week.

Outright plays:

Scott Hoch to win 20/1 e.w. @ Olympic or Sports.com

David Toms to win 28/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports

Kirk Triplett to win 60/1 e.w. @ Olympic

72-hole plays:

Tom Byrum to beat Tommy Tolles -111 @ Simon Bold
Would be a major surprise if this one matchup lasted into the weekend. Both have missed more cuts than they have made this season, but Byrum is scoring better than Tolles, he has made three of the last four cuts here and the last time Tolles played this course, he shot 83

Bob May to beat Michael Clark -150 @ Camelot
Since two top-10 finishes in the opening two events, Clark's form has nose-dived. He finished in the top-50 in just one of thirteen events since (46th - BellSouth Classic), so he is definitely one to oppose. May's form has not been spectacular in the past month, but he returns to a course on which he finished 2nd last year

Kevin Sutherland to beat John Daly -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
With three top-15 finishes in his last five events and two top-20 finishes in his last two visits, Sutherland looks to have a decent week this week. With just rounds in the 60s on this easiest of tracks, Daly hasn;t found this course to his liking and despite a recent upturn in his game, he will struggle here

Bob Estes to beat Ted Tryba -111 @ Simon Bold
Tryba may have won this event two years ago, but he is yet to record a top-20 finish this year. With such poor form, it hard to see him challenging again this year and is opposed with Estes who finished 4th in 1998 and is in much better form

1st round plays:

Steve Pate to beat Steve Jones -110 @ Camelot [2 units]

Bob May to beat Craig Parry -116 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-1-0 and +0.84 units

Split the plays, but still a profitable day. Pate beat Jones by three shots, but May's total was never going to threaten Parry and he lost by two. Decent position in the 72-hole plays: Byrum leads Tolles by one, May leads Clark by three, Sutherland and Daly are tied, while Estes leads the field and importantly leads Tryba by six. None of the outright plays are on the leaderboard, but there is still a long way to go.

2nd round plays:

Glen Day to beat Russ Cochran -115 @ Camelot [2 units]

David Toms to beat Chris DiMarco -110 @ VIP Sports

Jerry Kelly to beat Carlos Franco -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Lee Janzen to beat Billy Mayfair -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Lee Janzen to beat Kirk Triplett -115 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 4-1-0 and +5.70 units

Decent profit on the day, though a couple of winners were rather tight. Day lost to Cochran by four, but Toms beat DiMarco and Janzen beat Mayfair by one. At least the other two were more convincing: Kelly beat Franco by thirteen and Janzen beat Triplett by three.

Of the 72-hole plays, two are decided at the cut. May beat Clark by five, while Sutherland lost to Daly by seven in the three-unit play. Not such a good week for those! The other two are comfortably ahead though: Byrum leads Tolles by five and Estes leads Tryba by nine. Faint hope with the outrights. Hoch is nine shots behind Estes in 22nd place, while Tom is two shots further back. Triplett missed the cut by one.

3rd round plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Ted Tryba +100 @ On-Line Casino [3 units]

Billy Mayfair to beat Sean Murphy -125 @ Surrey [2 units]

3rd round update: 2-0-0 and +5.00 units

Didn't like too many matchups today, but a good result from the ones that I did. Hoch beat Tryba by two shots and Mayfair beat Murphy by six. In the 72-hole plays, Estes still leads the event and leads Tryba by eight, but Byrum's lead over Tolles is down to one. Could even break even on the outrights. Hoch is too far back to win, but is only one shot out of a top-5 position, though Toms is very much out of the running.

4th round plays:

Bob Estes to beat John Daly +110 @ VIP Sports [2 units]

Scott McCarron to beat Curtis Strange -150 @ Moneyplays

Final update: 1-1-0 and +0.70 units for the day; 11-4-0 and +11.91 units for the week

Split the plays as money rather than heart resulted in the Estes/Daly play. Would have loved Big John to win the event, but he didn't and took two more shots than Estes on the day to make it a profitable play. In the other, Strange's ability to compete at this stage of the tournament was a surprise and he defeated McCarron by three shots. At the least the two remaining 72-hole plays won: Byrum by two shots over Tolles and Estes by eight shots over Tryba. A decent profit on the week.

Update on the outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Hoch finished in the top-10 but was never really in contention for a place finish. Neither was Toms who finished 53rd or Triplett who missed the cut. Just as well Friday's and Saturday's plays saved the week.