Tournaments Players Championship

This is a big week on the golf calendar. While the ladies tee it up for their first Major of the year, the men compete for what has long been considered the 5th Major. That does not mean to say the event is considered an equal. When Sandy Lyle won this event in 1987, he was asked what was the difference between winning this title and the British Open. "100 years of history" was his reply! The course itself has a great number of critics, particularly from traditionalists such as Ben Crenshaw and Jack Nicklaus who comment about the course that he had "never been any good at stopping a five iron on the hood of a car" encapsulates many a view about this course. Sawgrass boasts extremely fast and undulating greens with shaved slopes leading invariably to water.

But it is a true championship course that sorts out the best from the rest. No-one has ever recorded their maiden win at the Players Championship and every winner since 1991, bar Duval in 1999, has also won a Major. The nerves of a Major champion are needed down the stretch. Not only does the 17th hole present the scariest shot in golf, but five of the last six holes were in the top-100 hardest holes on the 1999 PGA Tour and the last hole was the 2nd hardest on the Tour that year. Under these circumstances, the course does not need to be long and at less than 7000 yards it is positively short, but that focuses the attention away from good drivers to good iron players and putters who fare well here.

This is the richest event of the year and will probably boast the strongest field of the year. Despite the course's detractors, this will undoubtedly also be one of the most exciting finishes this year as well. One more point, if Hal Sutton were to be involved in that finish he would be breaking with tradition: no-one has even been placed, let alone win, when being the defending champion of the TPC!

The three selections this week are Davis Love, Nick Price and Scott Verplank. Love rested last week to prepare fully for this event and comes here as a former winner (1992). He has since had three top-10s finishes here and would have added a fourth in 1997 had he had been disqualified for a rules infringement. But it is his rejuvenated form rather than paste experience that gives him every chance this week. His long driving will not be rewarded this week, but he looks set to extend his run of top-10 finishes to five and figure on a quality-dominated leaderboard.

Nick Price has an incredible record in this event. He has finished in the top-10 six times in the last ten years, including the last three and has finished 3rd the last two. He even won this title in 1994. The emphasis on par golf is perfect for his game and he comes here off a 7th place finish at another tough course, the Blue Monster for the Genuity Championship two weeks ago. His putting is commonly maligned, but he has finished 24th in the PGA Tour putting stats for the last two years and that is not too shabby! He certainly capable of winning this event outright.

Maybe Scott Verplank has more of a place chance as he does not fit the bill of being a Major winner, but it is hard to ignore someone who is 4th in driving accuracy and 2nd in greens in regulation on the PGA Tour, especially when 66/1 is on the table! He has finished in the top-20 twice in the last three seasons and since medical advances has meant his diabetes can be dealt with while playing golf, he has been a player re-born. He finished 12th at the Genuity and had finished 4th twice in the month before that. Can't see him winning, but will probably challenge.

Outright plays:

Davis Love to win 20/1 e.w. @ Blue Square

Nick Price to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

Scott Verplank to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or Surrey

All e.w. bets are with 5 places. Note that Paddy Power are offering to refund all losing outright bets if the selection beats Tiger. Very tempting, but sticking with the above.

72-hole plays:

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Steve Flesch -150 @ WSEX 
Flesch's 7th place finish at the Genuity was a false dawn if last week was anything to go by and with an indifferent record here, he is not expected to break out of his slump this week. Calc on the other hand missed the cut last year, but before that had had a very good record in this event and on current form, he would well reproduce those finishes here

Scott Verplank to beat Stewart Cink -110 @ Surrey 
It is rather surprising that Cink should be so bad with his driver when he is considered one of the best prospects on Tour. He generally hits less than two-thirds of fairways off the tee and on this course, that is disastrous - to hit the greens, approach shots must be played from the fairway. It could explain his relatively poor record here and so he is opposed when against one of this week's outright picks

Hal Sutton to beat Joe Durant -135 @ WSEX 
With defending champions are usually cursed in this event, Sutton should still easily finish in the top-15 and beat Durant who played poorly last week and has an awful record on this course. The bubble may not have burst, but this is a very different arena for the ultra-modest Durant

Hal Sutton to beat Brad Faxon -135 @ Olympic 
Faxon may have been 4th four years ago, but finishes of 35th, 46th and 77th are not very encouraging. He may be the best putter in the field, but he cannot grind out the greens in regulation like Sutton and will always be fighting a losing battle to the course

Jim Furyk to beat Greg Norman -126 @ Grand Central 
Furyk has a surprisingly average record at Sawgrass, but at least that is an improvement on Norman's of the past half-dozen years! Furyk's strengths lie in his accurate driving and good putting and with his current form holding up well, this could be the year he really does challenge here. Norman may have finished 4th last week, but his game is simply no longer at the level needed to compete at such a difficult course

Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir -105 @ WSEX 
One appearance and rounds of 76 & 84 last year are not good for the Canadian. He may have had some good finishes of late, but when he currently stands 116th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour stats he cannot be expected to play well on this course. Quite a different story from Furyk's stats.

Chris Perry to beat Greg Norman -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Perry is another whose stats say he should play better at Sawgrass than he has done, but the signs are quite evident from this year that his consistent contender form is back. It took only a triple-bogey on the last to drop him to 8th last week and he should be counted upon to finish within the top-25 at least which should be easily enough

Because of the notoriety of the 17th hole at Sawgrass, there will be a number of props available relating to that hole. Here are some stats that might be useful in assessing them:

Scoring

In the water

The record number of tee-shots in the water occurred in 1984: 98 times

Holes in one

There have been just five since the event came to Sawgrass: Brad Fabel (1986); Brian Claar (1991); Fred Couples (1997), Joey Sindelar (1999) and Paul Azinger (2000). Though Fred Couples did have another hole-in-one in 1999, but that was with his 2nd ball, the 1st one having got wet!

Hope this helps

1st round plays:

Loren Roberts to beat Michael Campbell -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Joe Durant to beat Greg Norman -115 @ Five Dimes

Frank Lickliter to beat David Toms -112 @ Five Dimes

Vijay Singh to beat Phil Mickelson -105 @ Five Dimes

Chris Perry to beat Jeff Sluman -110 @ Five Dimes 

Simon Bold have gone overboard on offering groups for this week's tournaments, so for the 1st time, here is a group play:

Chris Perry to win Group E (Weir, Appleby, Azinger, Perry, Campbell) 7/2 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Perry faces four of the least accurate drivers in this week's field in this group and with the rough being wet, it is very thick so keeping it in play will be important. Only Weir can compete with Perry for current form, but he has played here once and missed the cut.

Adding:

Chris Perry to win Group E (Faxon, Perry, Norman, Cink, Bjorn) 7/2 @ Ladbrokes 

Scott Verplank to win Group C (Faxon, Norman, Verplank, Harrington, Cink) 7/2 @ Paddy Power

1st round update: 2-2-0 and -1.42 units

Split the plays, but lost the two-unit play as Roberts slumped to four-over-par and lost by four to Campbell. Elsewhere, Durant beat Norman by two, Lickliter lost to Toms by two and Singh beat Mickelson by six. At least the 72-hole plays look encouraging: only Calc is behind, by 4 shots to Flesch. Sutton is tied with Flesch, while Sutton leads Durant by one, Furyk leads Weir by five, Verplank leads Cink by nine and Furyk leads Norman by three.

Perry's withdrawal voided a few plays, especially the group plays, but in remaining one Verplank leads his group by one with Norman and Cink looking to struggle to make the weekend. Outrights are generally encouraging with Verplank in 8th place and Price 12th though Love is only 37th. 

Back early morning with 2nd round plays.

2nd round plays:

Fred Funk to beat Thomas Bjorn -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Colin Montgomerie to beat Mark Calcavecchia -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jim Furyk to beat Greg Norman -122 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Sergio Garcia to beat Mike Weir -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

2nd round update: 2-2-0 and -1.96 units

For the 2nd day, split the plays and lose the largest one to ensure a loss. Convincing eight-shot win for Funk and six-shot win for Monty, but Garcia lost by five to Weir and in the top play, Furyk was edged out by a single shot to Norman. It was rather frustrating though that he ruined an excellent round and a win with a triple-bogey eight at his last hole, the 9th   But this has been a week of incredible scoring, and not in the same way as earlier in the season!

Three of the 72-hole plays are decided at the cut and two are winners. Calc had trailed Flesch all week and eventually lost by eight, but Verplank held a thirteen-shot and Furyk a two-shot advantage over their opponents at the cut. In the remaining 72-hole plays, there are three-shot leads for both of the Sutton plays, while Furyk now trails Weir by one.

Bad 2nd day for the outrights. Love missed the cut and both Verplank and Price fell to 28th, despite Verplank having the best of the weather conditions over the two days. On this course though, anything can happen over the final 36 holes. In the sole group play, Verplank leads the group by one from Harrington and by two from Faxon; Cink and Norman missed the cut.

3rd round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat Hal Sutton +135 @ Moneyplays

Jonathan Kaye to beat Jim Carter -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Jim Furyk to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ Carib [3 units]

Nick Price to beat Hal Sutton +110 @ Carib

Tiger Woods to beat Vijay Singh -170 @ WSEX

Will post two-ball plays later, but currently looking at Tway, Sluman & Sutherland

Adding:

Bob Tway to beat Padraig Harrington +125 @ William Hill [2 units]

Kevin Sutherland to beat Joe Ozaki +100 @ Stanley

3rd round update: 2-5-0 and -3.40 units

The second time this week that a triple-bogey on the last hole turned a two-shot lead into a one-shot loss   The culprit was Kaye and it turned a small profit on the day into a loss! Elsewhere, the top play of the day, Furyk, won by two and Woods beat Singh by four. Apart from Kaye, there were also one-shot losses for Tway and Sutherland, while Allenby and Price lost by three.

In the 72-hole plays, Sutton has a two-shot lead over Durant and a eight-shot lead over Faxon, while Furyk still trails Weir by one. In the outrights, Price and Verplank are a little far back in 20th place to threaten a place finish, while in the group play of the week, Verplank has a two-shot lead over both Harrington and Weir.

4th round plays:

Tom Lehman to beat Robert Allenby -125 @ Intertops

Angel Cabrera to beat Joe Ozaki -118 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Darren Clarke to beat Joe Ozaki -120 @ Surrey [2 units]

Joe Durant to beat Lee Janzen -105 @ Five Dimes

Tim Herron to beat Mike Weir +160 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Mike Weir to beat Colin Montgomerie +122 @ Sportbet

Mike Weir to beat Jeff Sluman -120 @ Olympic

Final update: 3-3-1 and -1.94 units for the 4th round; 14-13-1 and -5.22 units for the week

Fourth losing day of four, but the 72-hole plays finished 5-1-0. Far too many triple-bogeys in this event to make the 18-hole plays profitable, but at least they would even out over the course of the week. Yet again a triple-bogey killed the top-play of the day - it happened to Cabrera on the 14th and he ended a one-shot loser to Cabrera. Of the two-unit plays, Herron won the +160 play by five shots, while Clarke lost to Ozaki because he could only tie. Maybe it is time to look at the tie hedge play? Of the rest, Lehman best Allenby by three, Durant beat Janzen by three, Weir tied with Monty and lost to Sluman by two.

The remaining 72-hole plays all won. Sutton beat Durant by two and Faxon by seven, while Furyk beat Weir by five. In the group play, Verplank had the lead from the very first day until four holes from the end, He then dropped four shots to hand victory to Harrington by two. The story of a very unpredictable week!

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Price was the closest challenger in 10th place, though he was only two shots from gaining a place finish. Verplank had started the week in the top-10 but fell away thereafter to finish 44th, while Love missed the cut by one.