Texas Open

It's Ryder Cup week without a Ryder Cup, so the Texas Open has the opportunity to re-assert itself on the PGA Tour and try to reclaim some of its previous prestige. It is fifth oldest event on the Tour and has a star-studded roll of honor.  That is, until 1972 when the tournament was moved from its spring date on the schedule to late fall. The move from Oak Hill to La Cantera in 1995 and the scheduling of the event in Ryder Cup week only accelerated the decline. The purse offered for this event became one of the lowest on Tour and officials struggled to find a sponsor for this year's event after Westin ended their involvement. There will never be a better opportunity to arrest that slide ... next year the event is once again played in Ryder Cup week.

While six American Ryder Cup players adjusted their schedules to play in last week's Pennsylvania Classic, only three have done so for this event, though Jesper Parnevik is another who would have been at the Belfry. They have added a small boost to a very weak field. Just one player in the top-10 of the World Rankings or the Official Money List (David Toms) is present this week and just one other player from the top-20 of both lists is on view. The field is predominantly comprised of players who need to play to secure their Tour card for next season.

The course that they play was modified significantly for last year's event. Two par-five holes were reduced to par-fours, both at 474 yards, and the fairways were narrowed. Accuracy is paramount on this undulating course, but just as important will be the greens. They may be among the largest on the Tour, but more importantly, it will be the first time in several months that the players will be putting on Bermuda greens. The change will favour the Southern state players.

The three selections this week are David Toms, Bob Estes and Larry Mize. Toms is the class player in this field. Apart from winning the PGA Championship, he won the Compaq Classic of New Orleans earlier this season on Bermuda greens and will finish in the top-15 of the money list for the 3rd consecutive season. He has had a light schedule since winning in Duluth and should go close on a course on which he has finished in the top-20 on each occasion.

Until this year, Estes' only Tour win had been in this event in 1994 at Oak Hill. When he won in June in the St. Jude Classic it was the first time that he had even finished in the top-5 of a Tour event since the 1999 Buick Open. With a renewed confidence in his game, he has secured top-10 finishes in his last two events, including 2nd in the Canadian Open. His previous form on this course may not be very impressive, but he is playing better than he has done for years and would be a very popular winner in front of his local crowds.

The final selection is very speculative. Mize had had a season to forget before last week: he had missed 10 of 19 cuts and his highest finish had been 35th. It was no wonder he took a six-week break! However, he admitted to having tinkered with his swing after his opening 73 last week and the effect was immediate. He finished 67-67-65 to secure 2nd place and give himself a chance of finishing in the top-100 of the money list for the 20th consecutive year. As long as the swing changes and the new-found confidence remain intact, he has a decent chance of revealing the absurdity of his odds.

Outright plays:

David Toms to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Bet365 or Sporting Odds

Bob Estes to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Larry Mize to win 125/1 e.w. @ Bet365

72-hole plays:

Scott Dunlap to beat Brad Elder +100 @ Camelot
Both players have struggled of late, having missed their last three cuts. They were in the same event and on all three occasions, Dunlap finished closer to the cut line than Elder. He also has a good record on this course having finished in the top-20 on three of four occasions, whereas former Longhorn Elder was a long way from the cut last year on his only visit

Fred Funk to beat David Gossett -105 @ Camelot
Gossett is another former Longhorn with a poor record on this course. He has missed the cut on both his previous visits with non of his rounds under par on this easy course. He did win the John Deere Classic and finish 5th in the Air Canada Championship, but he has been poor on the main Tour otherwise and is opposed with a player who has a decent record on this course in the past few years and has been in very good form since finishing 3rd in the Air Canada Championship

Joel Edwards to beat Frank Nobilo -150 @ Camelot [2 units]
Nobilo is definitely one to oppose this week. He has missed the cut on both visits to La Cantera and in each of his last five events. Definitely worth the chalk to back a player who won the Air Canada Championship earlier this month

Brian Watts to beat Frank Nobilo -130 @ Sportfanatik
Watts may not be in the same form as Edwards, but with a top-10 finish here last year and with just one cut missed in his last ten events, he should easily beat the Kiwi

Adding:

Larry Mize to beat Jay Don Blake -140 @ Camelot
It has been almost 18 months since Blake last recorded a top-5 finish and having missed six of his last eleven cuts, he doesn't look to be one be around at the weekend. Have to side with the outright pick in this matchup

Luke Donald to beat Jeff Quinney -125 @ Camelot [3 units]
Had this matchup at the Air Canada Championship and Donald won on that occasion. If Quinney does make the cut it will be the first time in eight attempts. So far, he hasn't even come close!

Brent Geiberger to beat David Gossett -120 @ VIP Sports
Two top-3 finishes from four starts on this course suggest that Geiberger likes this week's setup. Two missed cuts in his other starts is a cause for concern, but he is playing better than Gossett - 5th in the Air Canada Championship last time out - and has at least made the weekend in this event

Brent Geiberger to beat Brett Quigley -111 @ Simon Bold
Top-10 or bust is the current state of affairs from Quigley. In each top-10 finish he has had a very good 1st or 2nd round, so if he does get a fast start this week he may pose a threat to Geiberger, but otherwise this should be straightforward

Mid-point update:

Half of the eight plays are decided at the cut and only half of them are winners. Dunlap beat Elder by three shots and Geiberger beat Quigley by five. Poor first round left too much to do for Funk and Watts and they both missed the cut. Funk lost to Gossett by four and Watts lost to Nobilo by two. At least none of the four remaining plays are behind. The scores: Edwards/Nobilo 2 up; Mize/Blake all square; Donald/Quinney all square; Geiberger/Gossett 3 up.

In the outrights, Toms missed the cut by a country mile, Mize fell back from a top-10 spot after 18 holes to 33rd after 36, while at least Estes maintained his and is currently 9th. Looks like a decent event, but with the two- and three-unit plays still alive, it could turn sour.

Final update: 5-3-0 and -0.10 units

Won three of the remaining plays, but lost the big play of the week. Donald had an awful weekend and Quinney made his first weekend on Tour to win by nine shots   At least the others won to mean a break-even week on this event: Edwards beat Nobilo by two, Mize beat Blake by five and Geiberger beat Gossett by two.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.80 units

Bob Estes did just enough to finish 4th and secure a place win for a small profit on the outrights. Mize rediscovered the form of his first round and finished 17th, still higher than a 125/1 shot should finish, while Toms had long since missed the cut.