Tour Championship

When this event was played at the Champions Golf Club two years ago, a blue ribbon marked an empty parking spot. It was Payne Stewart's. On the Monday of Tour Championship week, Stewart and four others were killed when their LearJet flew uncontrolled for hours before crashing in South Dakota. He had been traveling to Houston for this event. Twenty-seven holes were played on the Thursday and Saturday while Friday's play was cancelled so the Tour could attend the Memorial Service in Orlando, Stewart's hometown. It was an emotional week and the return to the venue two years later should bring some fitting tributes to the life and career of one of the game's most flamboyant players.

The PGA Tour season ends as it started: with a high quality restricted field of just thirty players, though Phil Mickelson has declined the invitation to play and stays at home with his new daughter. They play on the Cypress Creek course at the Champions Golf Club which has hosted numerous important events and is currently a biannual host to this event until 2003. The fairways are tight, but the course is not especially long at 7,200 yards, so it will be approach shots and putting that will be key this week. The greens are among the largest on Tour - they average 10,000 square feet against a Tour average of 6,000 square feet - so keeping the approach shots to within good distance of the pin and lag putting on the Bermuda greens will be important.

The three selections for this event are Davis Love, Bob Estes and Tom Lehman. Once again I am sticking with Davis despite his frustrating inability to lead from the front. Nevertheless, he is at his best on Bermuda greens, is in great form with top-5 finishes in the last three weeks and has a great record on this course - 2nd (1999) and 3rd (1997). With Easybets offering a generous 14/1 to win (though only two places on the each-way element), it looks to good a price to pass up. Will wait for Olympic's 'show' odds to complete the play.

With the course setup very similar to Callaway Gardens, it is no surprise that last week's profitable picks are retained. Love and Estes remain the form horses on Tour at the moment. Estes extended his run of top-5 finishes to four last week and he has a good record as a front-runner. He must surely go close this week and Eurobet's odds on him are considerably larger than elsewhere. The only potential note of concern would be his 25th (of 29) place finish on this course two years ago, but that can easily be discounted. His first tee shot was with a putter. He hit it 15 feet to commemorate Stewart's holed putt that secured him the US Open Championship. Estes recorded a double-bogey on that hole and was understandably focused on other matters that week.

The final selection is Tom Lehman is should be one of the fresher players this week. He came back from a lengthy layoff to record 2nd and 13th place finishes in the pro-ams earlier this month. He has excelled on tight courses in the past and current ranked #1 in greens in regulation, he should be able to avoid too many monster putts this week. Like Estes, his 15th place finish two years ago can be discounted because of his friendship with Stewart, but it was noticeable that he put in a strong performance on this course once he got back from the memorial in Orlando. Less likely to win than the other two, so the 5 places (1/5 odds) at Surrey is more tempting than the better prices/lower places elsewhere.

Outright plays:

Davis Love to win 14/1 @ Easybets [0.5 units; rest of play to follow]

Bob Estes to win 28/1 e.w. @ Eurobet

Tom Lehman to win 28/1 e.w. @ Surrey

72-hole plays:

Hal Sutton to beat Mark Calcavecchia -125 @ Centrebet
Here's proof that a season is a long time. Neither of these in any sort of form, but Calc is the more woeful: just one top-20 finish since the Masters. Could see a small return of form for Sutton as he returns to Houston - he won the Houston Open earlier this year

Steve Stricker to beat Joe Durant -111 @ Simon Bold
Ditto for this match. Stricker is here because of the Anderson World Matchplay in January and Durant because of a back-to-back victories a month later. Stricker has played very little this year, but has been fairly consistent, while Durant's game has deserted him: just two cuts made in his last eleven starts

Davis Love to beat Ernie Els -133 @ Easybets
Els missed the cut last week and that was no surprise given the weather and Monday finish in Scotland the week before. He should do better this week, but with two 26th place finishes on this course, there is little reason to expect a major improvement. Easy to stick with the outright selection here

David Duval to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ Easybets
The return of form was evident last week from Duval and having won on this course (1997), he looks set for another strong performance. Difficult to side with the talented, but erratic Spaniard at the moment

Bob Estes to beat Sergio Garcia -105 @ WSEX
Again going with a consistent player and one in form good enough to win this event. Garcia has missed the cut in two of his last three starts on the PGA Tour and is opposed

Vijay Singh to beat Sergio Garcia +100 @ Paddy Power
Singh couldn't capitalize on a great position at the start of the weekend, but he remains focused on Sunday and finished in the top-10 for the second successive event. He has finished in the top-10 on this course on both occasions and while he won't win, he at least looks as though he is playing well and should be on the leaderboard this week.

Tom Lehman to beat Robert Allenby -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Opposing Allenby who apart from winning the Houston Open last year has never fared well on the Bermuda greens of the Southern states and with the enormity of the greens on view this week, the frailty of his putting will be exposed. Siding with an outright pick against a player who should struggle to finish in the top-half

Tom Lehman to beat Bernhard Langer -125 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
It has been a long season for Langer. He has won twice on the European Tour this season - his first victories since 1998 - and secured six top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. He'll be a strong competitor, but I just don't see him doing any better than scraping into the top-10 against this company and at his stage in his career 

Tom Lehman to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ Victor Chandler
Two top-10 finishes in the pro-ams is evidence of good form from McCarron, but these courses and the venues of his other top-10 this year - Sugarloaf and Southwind - are set up easy with plenty of room for the driver and scoring is low. None of those will be in evidence this week and he should struggle as a result

Completing outright play:

Davis Love to 'show' 5/2 @ Olympic [0.5 units]

Mid-point update:

Ugly state of affairs at the mid-point, just as well there is no cut. The scores: Sutton/Calc 8 down; Stricker/Durant 6 down; Love/Els 5 down; Duval/Garcia 2 down; Estes/Garcia 1 down; Singh/Garcia 7 down; Lehman/Allenby 6 up; Lehman/Langer 4 down; Lehman/McCarron 3 up. In the outrights, Love is 22nd and Estes and Lehman are 7th, so not quite the end-of-season event I had in mind!

Final update: 2-7-0 and -6.49 units

Extremely disappointing week and the same with this event. Was looking good for a profitable week with nine holes to play, but not to be. The results: Sutton/Calc 6 down; Stricker/Durant 9 down; Love/Els 7 down; Duval/Garcia 2 down; Estes/Garcia 2 down; Singh/Garcia 8 down; Lehman/Allenby 6 up; Lehman/Langer 2 down; Lehman/McCarron 2 up.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Estes took double-bogey on the 16th and it kept him out of the playoff   He finished two shots back in 7th place. A better performance than from Love and Lehman though, they both finished 15th. Across three events this week, that makes not even a place win in the outright and a losing record in the matchups in all three events   Only just manage to keep above the 200-unit profit mark