US Open

The US Open is a brutal event. Narrow fairways, heavy rough and hard, small and fast greens make this a daunting prospect. Carnoustie was described as the toughest course in the world when it staged the British Open two years ago; it would only take wind to make Southern Hills a worthy contender to that title. The second Major of the year, but a complete opposite to Augusta National. Only four players have ever won the Masters and the US Open in the same year - it is one of Jack's feats that Tiger has yet to achieve.

The fairways have been trimmed to 24-32 yards wide in line with US Open tradition, though the primary  rough has been allowed to grow to 3-4 inches rather than the customary five. No comfort there as the rough is Bermuda grass so the ball is more likely to settle at the bottom. With the greens set to run at 11" on the stimpmeter at the start of the week, they will only get slicker and more than ever, it will be the short game that defines the US Open champion. This is not a long course even for a par-70, measuring less than 7000 yards, so many players will hit irons - as Garcia did in the Colonial - off the tee to keep the ball in play. Deftness around the greens and an ability to cope with the slick and undulating greens ("Maxwell's Rolls") will be crucial.

Will Tiger win? Yes, I think he will. He dominated the game last year because of the huge improvement in his short game, especially holing out from within 20 feet. In the past couple of months, he has shown that it is that part of his game that has been returning to its peak. More importantly though, his psychological dominance over the rest of the field gives him the greatest edge. Tiger will have to lose this event before most other players have a chance of winning it.

There are a few exceptions and the first selection is one of those. I am jumping on the Garcia bandwagon and believe that he poses the greatest threat to Tiger. Perry Maxwell designed the Colonial Country Club as well as Southern Hills and much has been written about the link between performances in the MasterCard Colonial and at Southern Hills. With the maturity to plays irons off the tee and center his game plan around his short game, Garcia won the Colonial last month. He has one of the best games in the world around the greens and he revels on lightning fast greens. He only finished 46th in his sole US Open start last year, but looking more mature in his outlook, with the mental strength to block Tiger and with a sizeable support from the crowd, he looks the most likely candidate to tame the Tiger.

The 2nd outright pick is Vijay Singh, but this is for the 'w/o Woods' markets. He does get fazed by Tiger, so those markets are the best option for the Fijian. With his putting gremlins supposedly a thing of the past - if the putting stats are to be believed - the double-Major champion looks one very likely to contend. He has finished in the top-10 in four of the last six US Open and in the two Tour Championships to be held at Southern Hills in 1995 and 1996. Having finished in top-5 in nine of his sixteen events this year and with 5 place on offer for the 'w/o Woods' market, he should at least get a place return.

The 3rd pick, and again for the 'w/o Woods' markets, is Paul Azinger. He completes a trio of players who have early tee-times and can get themselves established in the tournament before the greens become very slick in the afternoon. He has played sparingly this year and that can only be a good thing as far as preparation for this event is concerned. Yet he comes into this event in great form as well. He was 2nd in his last outing (to Tiger and alongside Garcia) at the Memorial two weeks ago and has not finished outside the top-15 in any of his last five tournaments. Add to that top-15 finishes in his last three US Opens, then he looks a decent shot at the available odds and if Tiger does finish in the top-5, he only needs to finish 6th to gain a place win.

Outright plays:

Sergio Garcia to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Surrey ['w/o Woods' market]

Paul Azinger to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet247 ['w/o Woods' market]

72-hole plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Mark Calcavecchia -120 @ Camelot
Calc's early season form seems to have deserted him. He has missed the last two cuts and finished outside the top-30 in the two beforehand. Also easy to oppose someone who has missed the cut in each of his last six US Opens

Paul Azinger to beat Bernhard Langer -110 @ William Hill [2 units]
Definitely turning on Langer. Backed him to bring his superb US form to Europe and he failed; ignored him last week and turned on the form again! However, like Calc, he has a desperate record in this event. He has made the weekend in just six occasions in the sixteen times he has tried. Excellent iron-player, just not good enough around the greens for this event

Scott Hoch to beat Nick Faldo -110 @ Sports.com
Both finished in the top-10 and Faldo looks a decent shot for 2nd best European this week, but Hoch has finished no worse than 11th in his last five starts and if he makes the cut, almost always finished in the top-20 in this event

Hale Irwin to beat Tom Kite +120 @ Camelot
Would not get these odds on the Senior Tour and so will take them here. Kite has been making the cut in this event in recent years, but when they played the Senior PGA Championship last month at the very tough Ridgewood, it was Irwin who was able to keep the ball in play and contend

Justin Leonard to beat Bernhard Langer -110 @ BlueSq
Top-20 in the past two years and three top-10 finishes in his last five events, Leonard looks good for another top-20 finish and that should be more than enough to beat the troublesome German

Tom Lehman to beat Davis Love -110 @ Paddy Power [2 units]
The last two plays are opposing DL3. He hasn't played since April and has a neck injury that will probably need surgery. It is very likely that he will go through the motions, if not withdraw at some stage. If fit, this would be a close matchup, but this has to be an easy win for Lehman whose worst finish in the last nine US Opens is 33rd

Nick Price to beat Davis Love -110 @ Camelot
Winner of the US PGA Championship on this course in 1994, Price's short game does not automatically make him one to favor this week, but he has finished in the top-30 in all but one of his last nine US Opens. Not a pick if Love was fit, but he isn't

Adding:

Todd Fischer to beat Kyle Blackman -150 @ Camelot [3 units]
Both failed to make the weekend last year, but this match is decided on current form. Have no record of Blackman playing in a Tour event this year, whereas Fischer has finished 4th in the Carolina Classic and 29th in Virginia Beach Open on the Buy.com Tour last month

Jess Daley to beat John Douma -115 @ Camelot [3 units]
Douma has been a regular on the Canadian Tour, but has only achieved one top-10 in the past two years; Daley has played on both the Buy.com Tour and three events on the Canadian Tour this year when he has finished 7th, 21st and 2nd. There is a big difference in quality of player

Dean Wilson to beat Chris Gonzalez -125 @ Camelot [3 units]
Five appearances on the Buy.com Tour and five missed cuts for Gonzalez; Wilson has played on the Buy.com Tour, but it is on the Japan Tour that he has made a huge impact, winning the Japan PGA Championship only last month

Jeff Quinney to beat John Harris -150 @ Camelot [2 units]
Harris only made one appearance on the Buy.com Tour last year and missed the cut. While Quinney has missed the cut on each of his three appearances on the PGA Tour, he is a very bright prospect and has the experience of playing in the Masters earlier this year

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Wes Heffernan -140 @ Camelot
Heffernan has made a few appearances on the Canadian Tour and in the Canadian Open, but has failed to make an impression and missed the cut in both his national Opens. Jaidee, on the other hand, is one of the leading players on the Davidoff Tour with an excellent short game. The transition to playing in the US will be too much for him to make the cut, but he is much the better player

Jimmy Walker to beat Scott Johnson -110 @ Camelot [3 units]
Johnson has made a few appearances on the Buy.com Tour in recent years, but missed more cuts than not and is expected to be beaten by Walker who played in the Byron Nelson Classic earlier this year and shot 72-68 to just miss the cut. Big increase in quality of competition and in scoring

Props:

I LOVE 'make/miss the cut' props! From Centrebet's props on 76 different players, these are to miss the cut:

Billy Andrade -133 [3 units]

Notah Begay -149 [3 units]

Thomas Bjorn +165 [2 units]

Jose Coceres +135 [3 units]

Robert Damron -118 [3 units]

Carlos Franco -149 [2 units]

Harrison Frazar -133

Pierre Fulke -167 [3 units]

Retief Goosen -133 [3 units]

Mathias Gronberg -118 [3 units]

Toshimitsu Izawa +145 [2 units]

Bernhard Langer +175

Paul Lawrie -133 [3 units]

J.L. Lewis -133 [3 units]

Peter Lonard -149 [3 units]

Jeff Maggert -154 [2 units]

Mark O'Meara -133 [3 units]

Corey Pavin -105

Phillip Price -111

Eduardo Romero -133 [3 units]

Chris Smith -139 [2 units]

Duffy Waldorf -125 [2 units]

All lines @ Centrebet

Forgot my injured list! So, now that Five Dimes also have the 'make/miss the cut' props up as well, including all the above at the same or better prices, adding the following to miss the cut:

Davis Love +350 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Colin Montgomerie +235 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Chris Perry -165 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

1st round plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Jesper Parnevik -115 @ Camelot, Five Dimes or Moneyplays

Angel Cabrera to beat Thomas Bjorn +100 @ Moneyplays

Tom Lehman to beat Davis Love -115 @ WSEX [3 units]

Lee Westwood to beat Colin Montgomerie -138 @ Five Dimes

Have a further three 1st round plays from Camelot, but having seen how fast lines move there after these plays have been posted, I'm going to wait until reinforcement funds arrive and I can play them myself first   Will post those plays in the morning

The remaining three 1st round plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Mark Calcavecchia -150 @ Camelot

Michael Campbell to beat Bernhard Langer -105 @ Camelot

Nick Price to beat Davis Love -125 @ Camelot [2 units]

Nothing from me for the 2nd round. Changed course, matchups involving players not having completed their first round, and for those that have, they won't finish their round today. Too much risk playing 2nd round matches under those conditions.

Will update standings after conclusion of 1st round, but one thing is clear, the old adage "beware the injured golfer" was proved correct yesterday

1st round update: 1-6-0 and -10.03 units

Ouch! Made a correction for injured players Love, Monty and Perry to make them plays and every once is losing or has already lost   Love beat Lehman by four and Price by two in the main plays of the day while Monty beat Westwood by four. In the regular 1st round plays, Azinger lost by four to Calc and by one to Parnevik and Campbell lost by six to Langer. The sole win of the day was Cabrera's two shot win over Bjorn.

Too many other plays to list ... and it wouldn't make happy reading anyway ... but the 72-hole plays stood 5-8-0 after 18 holes and the cut props stood 12-13. Horrible week and they've only played 18 holes!

3rd round plays:

Davis Love to beat Thomas Bjorn +110 @ GoTo Casino

David Toms to beat Angel Cabrera -115 @ Camelot

Update:

No 2nd round plays, but plenty enough decided in the 2nd round anyway! First the disastrous cut props. They finished 9-16 for -22.89 units. Common to these was the very bad practise of playing against injured players. Don't usually do it and shouldn't have done it this week. All three - Love, Monty and Perry - made the cut, costing 9.95 units. Goosen's bogey on the last let in Romero and Frazar under the 10-shot rule, costing 9.32 units. Maybe that was unfortunate, but these were bad plays made worse by playing on injury information.

Of the thirteen 72-hole plays, eight were decided at the cut including all six of the 'secondary matchups' at Camelot. The only good matchups of the week were these. They finished 3-2-1 and the two losses were very tight. Quinney was 11-over-par after ten holes, but was then excellent until a double-bogey at the last meant a two-shot loss. In the other, Fischer dropped five shots in the last four holes to lose by one to Harris. Daley tied with Douma and the others won.

Of the other 72-hole plays, Leonard lost by seven to Langer, as did Price to Love. In the live plays, Azinger leads Calc and Langer by three, as does Irwin over Kite, while Hoch is tied with Faldo and Lehman trails Love by three. Stupid plays on injuries!

In the better outright plays, Garcia is 4th @ 33/1 and Azinger is 11th @ 50/1, while Singh is certainly not out of it on 34th place alongside Tiger. With 40/1 and 66/1 shots doing well in the Seniors event, might yet salvage this week.

3rd round update: 1-1-0 and -0.05 units

Split the plays for a break-even day and that's quite an improvement on events so far! Love defeated Bjorn by two, but Toms had a miserable day and lost by five to Cabrera. Still looks as though the 72-hole plays will be profitable. In the remaining plays, Azinger leads Calc by seven and Langer by five, Hoch leads Faldo by five, while Irwin leads Kite by one and Lehman trails Love by one. With Garcia in good shape for the title and Azinger with a chance for a place finish, could yet limit the losses of day one and the props.

4th round plays:

Briny Baird to beat Bryce Molder -135 @ Camelot

Hale Irwin to beat Gabriel Hjertstedt -122 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Will look at two-ball plays later when more lines are available

Adding 4th round plays:

Loren Roberts to beat Bryce Molder -161 @ Easybets

Phil Mickelson to beat Mark Brooks -125 @ BetSmart [2 units]

Tiger Woods to beat Padraig Harrington -150 @ Sports.com [2 units]

Final update: 1-4-0 and -5.90 units for the day; 18-33-1 and -40.77 units for the week

A record week for the wrong reason ... I should have given up when I saw how things were panning out on the first day! Very briefly, Tiger was the only win today; he was the only pick to break par and second-best was Mickelson at five-over! Of the five remaining 72-hole plays, Azinger won both of his as did Hoch against Faldo. The two tight plays overnight turned into losses as both Irwin and Lehman lost.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.38 units

Three picks in the top-12, so at least should be pleased with those even if they weren't that profitable. Garcia was simply awful and dropped down to 12th; Singh had a great day to recover a lost position and finish just one shot out of a place finish, while Azinger at least did finish 5th, but as alongside Kite, the shared pot was rather small. Enough said on that week!