Western Open

A week without a major on any Tour, though this will be the last piece of competitive action of most of the leading players before the British Open in two weeks time. A high quality field assembles at Cog Hill yet again - it will not be the same again on the PGA Tour this month. This is the 2nd oldest event on the PGA Tour, dating back to 1899, with the oldest, the US Open, not technically run by the Tour. It therefore has a great heritage and is one of the most sought-after titles this year. The list of winners reads likes of 'who's who' of twentieth century golf.

The Dubsdread course at Cog Hill has hosted this event since 1991. Much has been written that driving length and greens in regulation are essential to playing well here, but the course compatibility stats dispute this. This is a short, tight, tree-lined course measuring just over 7,000 yards. The four par-fives are not very long and three of them are reachable for virtually the whole field. Accuracy and a good putting touch on the large, undulating greens will decide the winner.

Players with local connections are Jeff Sluman, who has played this event every year for over twenty years and did record three top-10 finishes in the 1990s, and Steve Stricker, who hails from neighbouring Wisconsin and attended Illinois University; he also won this event in 1996 by eight shots. Both can be expected to perform better than of late.

The outright selections this week are Vijay Singh, Scott Hoch and Nick Price. Vijay may have missed the cut last year, but he had finish in the top-10 in four of his previous five visits so maybe can discount last year's rogue finish. He has been a model of consistency this year which 12 top-10 finishes in his last 15 events and a worst of 18th in that run (The Masters). He sits on top of the Tour putting stats and if the par-fives are to be important, he ranks 3rd behind Duval and Woods in that category as well. Overdue a win on the PGA Tour.

Scott Hoch has very similar stats to Vijay. He ranks 3rd in putting and 7th in par-five birdies - impressive for a short hitter (he ranks 10th in driving accuracy). In a great run of form - no worse than 16th in his last 8 events - and with just as good course form - top-15 in five of the last seven years - he looks good to secure another place win.

Maybe more can be expected of Nick Price, who lost in a playoff to Robert Allenby last year and failed to join at elite group of players with at least 3 Western Open titles in their career. Apart from 70th in 1996, his worst finish since the event came to Cog Hill has been 22nd. His holds the low scoring record for this event - 263 in 1993 - and is joint holder of the course record (63), which he shot in the first round last year. He has secured top-10 finishes in two of his last four events and he should secure another one this week.

Outright plays:

Vijay Singh to win 16/1 e.w. @ Eurobet [5 places option]

Scott Hoch to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet247 or Sports.com

Nick Price to win 50/1 e.w. @ Eurobet [5 places option]

72-hole plays:

Kenny Perry to beat Billy Andrade -110 @ BlueSq
After two top-3 finishes in the last two weeks, opposing Andrade may be a little dangerous, but Kenny Perry is in no less form, having finished in the top-10 in three of his last four events and over a longer time span. Perry gets the nod because of their respective course form: he finished 15th last year, whereas Andrade has missed the cut for the past two years

Kenny Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -118 @ BetInternet
Perry is also picked in the matchup against Kelly as he has worse form than Andrade both at the moment and on this course. Kelly finished 7th last week and that ended a run of very poor form since the MasterCard Colonial, but conditions will be very different this week. This will be no birdie-fest, so the usefulness of last week's figures is somewhat lower than usual. Kelly also comes to a course on which he has missed the cut in three of the last four years, so a repeat of last week's form is very unlikely

Billy Mayfair to beat Chris Smith -105 @ BetInternet
Both with poor course form in recent years, but Mayfair is a past champion here (1995) and comes into the event playing some decent, if unspectacular, golf. Smith has been struggling with his game of late - just one finish inside the top-40 in his last seven events - and should be opposed this week

Chris Perry to beat Chris Smith -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Chris Perry appears to have overcome injury and a lack of confidence if the top-20 finishes in his last two events, including the US Open, are to be believed. With a better record on this course and a top-10 just two years, Perry is a strong selection against Smith

1st round plays:

Scott Verplank to beat Billy Andrade -133 @ Five Dimes

Tim Herron to beat Jerry Kelly +110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Justin Leonard to beat Lee Janzen -105 @ Camelot

1st round update: 2-1-0 and +0.00 units

Lost the two-unit play to negate the profits on the other two   Herron lost by three to Kelly, while there were convincing four- and eight-shot wins for Verplank and Leonard respectively. The 72-hole plays stand 1-3-0 after 18 holes, but they are very tight. The standings: Perry/Andrade 5 up; Perry/Kelly 1 down; Mayfair/Smith 1 down; Perry/Smith 3 down. Price has some distance to make up in the outrights, but at least Hoch and Singh have made sure that they are in contention, albeit four shots behind the leader, Mark Wiebe.

2nd round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat Brad Faxon +100 @ VIP Sports [2 units]

Brian Gay to beat Bob Tway -113 @ Five Dimes

Lee Janzen to beat Justin Leonard +108 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Kirk Triplett to beat Scott McCarron -103 @ Five Dimes

Tiger Woods to beat Phil Mickelson -175 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 4-1-0 and +4.24 units

What an eventful day! Two large wins, two close wins and a huge roller-coaster of a matchup. Allenby bogeyed his 1st hole, but was still five-under-par after eight holes and was then six ahead of Faxon. He doubled-bogeyed his 9th and then his 13th to throw in the towel with regards making the cut and as he continued to drop shots, Faxon birdied four of his last five holes to beat Allenby by three shots But at least the other four won: Gay/Tway 6 up; Janzen/Leonard 1 up; Triplett/McCarron 1 up; Woods/Mickelson 6 up.

Just one play is decided at the cut. Kenny Perry beat Andrade by three shots. The three remaining plays are all losing though, but at least they are close: Perry/Kelly 2 down; Mayfair/Smith 3 down; Perry/Smith 3 down. Some hope with the outrights: Hoch lies 3rd and Singh two shots further back in 10th. Price made the cut at least.

Back in the morning with 3rd round plays.

3rd round plays:

Scott Verplank to beat Brandel Chamblee +120 @ Island Casino

Frank Lickliter to beat Jeff Maggert -120 @ Moneyplays and others

3rd round update: 0-0-2 and +0.00 units

Geez! Four plays made today and every one ended in a tie! Just as well they resulted in a push rather than a loss as with the European Tour plays. Verplank, Chamblee, Lickliter and Maggert all shot 70. Slight improvement in the remaining 72-hole plays in that one now leads: Mayfair leads Smith by one. Not so good with the other two: Kenny Perry trails Kelly by three and Chris Perry trails Smith by six. High hopes with Hoch in the outrights. Great run of birdies to close within one of Love and given his very suspect temperament ...  Singh lies 10th and Price 28th in an extremely congested leaderboard, so may also pick up a place finish as well.

Back in the morning with the 4th round plays.

One early 4th round play:

Davis Love does not win Western Open +127 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
DL3 has failed to win his last 5 tournaments when leader after 54 holes and seeing how he finished last night, can't see him breaking that trend.

Back later with the rest

Adding:

David Toms to beat J.J. Henry -150 @ BetSmart

Hal Sutton to beat Jeff Maggert -120 @ Olympic

Kevin Sutherland to beat Rory Sabbatini -125 @ Easybets

Final update: 3-1-0 and +4.56 units for the day; 11-5-2 and +7.40 units for the week

What a shootout   One of the best I can remember ... though the result did help   Love didn't wilt, apart from two bad shots in the last three holes - was very lucky with the lies though - Hoch was superb! It meant the Love not winning prop won by a shot. The results for the rest: Toms/Henry 1 up; Sutton/Maggert 7 up; Sutherland/Sabbatini 1 down. No improvement in the remaining 72-hole plays. Mayfair beat Smith by one, while Kenny Perry lost by four to Smith and Chris Perry lost by eight to Smith. A good week on the matchups.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +15.50 units

Incredible golf from Hoch to set a new tournament record. A very nice 28/1 winner   Vijay threatened to secure a place finish, but finished two shots short in 10th place. Price was somewhat further back in 50th.

A pretty good week on the outrights this week. Made 12 selections across 4 Tours and 5 of them finished in the top-3   Only one winner, but still a pretty good week!