WorldCom Classic

After the manufactured splendour of Augusta, it is time for a true seaside links. This is one of many changes from last week's venue and while week-to-week changes would appear to not be very enticing, the players are unanimous in their praise of the set-up at Harbour Town and barring any late withdrawals after the stresses of Augusta, this is a high quality field again. The fact that in only four years since 1981 has the winner not been a Major champion is testimony to the field that the WorldCom (formerly MCI) Classic attracts and to the testing nature of the course. On 1 May last year, Harbour Town Golf Club was closed for nine months for a major facelift from Pete Dye, but it hasn't changed any of the characteristics of the holes, only the shape of the bunkers and the wooden panels that have made the course famous.

With much narrower fairways than last week and the smallest greens the pros experience all season, this represents quite a change from the Masters. With an emphasis on accuracy, particularly in hitting the tiny greens, this is no course for the big hitters. The fact that there are only three par-5s adds to the downplaying of length and the collectively the four par-3s are the toughest on Tour; this is where much of the title race will be decided. In another change from last week, we are back on Bermuda greens and one particular feature of previous leaderboards has been that they have been dominated by good putters who can scramble well around these tiny greens.

One notable player with a local connection is Davis Love who is a four-time winner here and has been playing the course since the age of thirteen. He is not selected this week because of poor odds and a lingering suspicion that he still will not enough tournaments when in contention. Instead, the three outright plays this week are Vijay Singh, Tom Lehman and Jeff Sluman. Singh did not feature too prominently in the Masters last week, but the champion has successfully defended his title just twice in Masters history, so that is no great surprise. That his 3rd round 73 was his only round over-par this year is indicative of the great run of form he is enjoying. He finished 3rd last year and with a ranking of 2nd in the putting average stats, he should finish very high on the leaderboard this week.

Tom Lehman gets the 2nd spot ahead of Mark Calcavecchia because of the latter's reluctance to play here and poor record when he has. Lehman may be 100th in this year's putting average stats and 109th in driving accuracy, but he has a tremendous record around this course. He has played here every year since 1991 and his worst finish has been 36th. Last year he played the weekend in 10-under-par to almost catch Stewart Cink; he finally finished 2nd. With the credentials of a Major winner and a specialist on tough courses, he could very easily defy his Tour stats and again be a real contender this week.

Finally, Jeff Sluman is the value play. Like Lehman, he is a tough course specialist and like both picks, is a Major winner already. He ranks 9th in this year's putting average stats and has a decent record on this course, finishing 2nd two years ago only on a playoff with Glen Day and Payne Stewart. He did not play last week and comes into the event fresh and focused.

Outright plays:

Vijay Singh to win 12/1 e.w. @ Easybets

Tom Lehman to win 25/1 e.w. @ Easybets

Jeff Sluman to win 50/1 e.w. @ DAS

72-hole plays:

Justin Leonard to beat Aaron Baddeley -118 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Leonard may not have a particularly good record in this event, but he should be competitive this week and that is something that Baddeley has not been on the PGA Tour. He has continued his terrible run this year with missed cuts in both his PGA Tour events and this should be over before the weekend

Frank Nobilo to beat John Daly -135 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Daly remains a standard go-against and his 75-76 finish to his last tournament, the BellSouth Classic, to drop him down to 27th only confirms it. On a tight course there is even more reason to oppose Daly and Nobilo can be counted upon to at least make the weekend to win this matchup

Scott Hoch to beat Greg Norman -125 @ Centrebet 
While Norman has struggled around this course over the past two years - 66th and 68th - Hoch has posted two top-15 finishes. As proof of how much Hoch likes this course, he has only missed this event on two occasions in twenty years and has secured ten top-20 finishes in that time. With a month of decent golf behind him, Hoch is one for this matchup

Justin Leonard to beat Adam Scott -111 @ Paddy Power 
Like Baddeley, Scott has struggled to bring his Australasian Tour form to the PGA Tour, though at least he did manage an 11th place finish at the Honda Classic. But that was a course for big-hitters and this is certainly not, so this looks to be not such a prosperous week for Australia's younger players on Tour

Scott Verplank to beat Adam Scott -118 @ Easybets [2 units]
Verplank has a better record around this course than Leonard (he finished 11th last year), is better suited to the course setup, being currently ranked 3rd & 4th in the Tour stats for driving accuracy and greens in regulation and is in better form. They should both beat Scott and Verplank should finish in the top-25 as well

Adding 72-hole plays:

Lee Janzen to beat Robert Allenby -122 @ Five Dimes  
Two appearances and two missed cuts is not encouraging for another of this week's Aussie go-againsts. Janzen on the other hand has been a model of consistency on this course with eight cuts made from nine attempts and four top-20 finishes

Frank Lickliter to beat Greg Norman -130 @ Five Dimes 
Because of the small greens, being about to putt well and scramble is a prerequisite for good scoring around Harbour Town and Norman is no longer able to compete in those departments. Lickliter is not the best at these, but there is a gulf between them

1st round plays:

Lee Janzen to beat Robert Allenby -117 @ Five Dimes  

Dennis Paulson to beat Thomas Bjorn -115 @ Five Dimes  

Chris Perry to beat Mark Calcavecchia +112 @ Five Dimes  

Sergio Garcia to beat Stewart Cink -107 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Sergio Garcia to beat Frank Lickliter -118 @ Five Dimes  

Frank Lickliter to beat Greg Norman -120 @ Five Dimes  

Rocco Mediate to beat Billy Mayfair -118 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

1st round update: 2-5-0 and -5.83 units

Ugly day as three of the six selected players could not break par; at least half the field did so today, so they shouldn't have won their matchups and they didn't. Paulson lost by two to Bjorn, Perry lost by six to Calcavecchia and Garcia lost by three to Cink and by four to Lickliter. Four bad plays, but maybe the other loss was a little unfortunate. Mediate lies 4th on the leaderboard, but still lost by one to Mayfair. The wins were from Janzen and Lickliter by two and one shot respectively.

At least the 72-hole plays and outrights are encouraging. All the 72-plays are ahead apart from the two involving Justin Leonard who shot 77. He has a mountain to climb to make the cut and avoid the 3-unit play being a loser. With the outrights, Singh is joint leader, Lehman is 4th and Sluman is one further shot back in 13th, so maybe the horrors of the first day could be forgotten by the end of the week!

2nd round plays:

Rocco Mediate to beat Greg Chalmers +100 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

Frank Nobilo to beat John Daly -140 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Fred Funk to beat Scott Verplank -110 @ Five Dimes

Rocco Mediate to beat Billy Mayfair -124 @ Five Dimes

Vijay Singh to beat Billy Mayfair -150 @ GoTo Casino

2nd round update: 0-3-2 and -5.14 units

Jeez! What a first two days   Singh secured a push with Mayfair and Mediate came from behind to secure a push with Chalmers. Otherwise, Nobilo lost to Daly by five, Funk lost to Verplank by five and Mediate lost to Mayfair by three. Had only broke-even on 1st & 2nd round plays this year before this - something in my systems has to be changed!

Very poor day for the 72-hole plays also. Five of the seven plays were decided at the cut and four were losers. Both of Leonard's opponents missed the cut, but so did he. He lost to Baddeley by four and Scott by one. Nobilo missed the cut by one and handed a four-shot victory to Daly, while Lickliter shot 79 to hand a seven-shot victory to Norman. The only winner was Verplank, by eleven shots over Scott. In the two remaining plays, Hoch leads Norman by four and Janzen is tied with Allenby.

Nightmare tournament that could at least be rescued by the outright plays. Lehman leads the event, Singh is in a tie for 2nd and Sluman is 25th and just four shots out of a place.

Early 3rd round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Jose Coceres -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Paul Azinger to beat Thomas Bjorn -128 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Nick Price to beat Stewart Cink -120 @ Five Dimes

Nick Price to beat Brad Faxon -120 @ Carib [2 units]

Adding:

Corey Pavin to beat Ted Tryba +100 @ Moneyplays

3rd round update: 4-1-0 and +2.85 units

At last! A winning day! The fact that the only losing play was the top play made a dent in the day's profits, but always nice to turn the corner. Coceres produced the round of the day to inflict a five-shot defeat of Ames, but Azinger neat Bjorn by three, Price beat Cink by one and Faxon by eight, and Pavin beat Tryba by one.

The remaining 72-hole plays also improved. Hoch still leads Norman by four, but Janzen is now seven shots ahead of Allenby. In the outrights, Lehman couldn't buy a putt and fell back to 4th, but Singh surged ahead at the death for a two-shot lead. Hard to see him losing that lead given his nearest challengers. Sluman had a bad day and fell back to 43rd.

4th round plays:

Chris Perry to beat Robert Allenby -112 @ Five Dimes

Mark Calcavecchia to beat John Cook -165 @ Intertops

Bob Estes to beat John Daly -115 @ Moneyplays or GoTo Casino [3 units]

Joe Durant to beat Chris Smith -125 @ Five Dimes

Skip Kendall to beat Chris Smith -110 @ Carib

Skip Kendall to beat Ted Tryba -125 @ Intertops

Scott Verplank to beat Len Mattiace +110 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

Also looking at Dennis Paulson, Glen Day and Scott Verplank in the two-balls, but will wait for better prices from the Euro books.

Adding two-ball plays [hedging the tie 8/1 @ Centrebet to gain a push if tie wins]:

Dennis Paulson to beat John Daly -129 @ Centrebet [2 units] [+100 win only] [also @ Simon Bold, Easybets, BetSmart & Simon Bold]

Scott Verplank to beat Mike Sposa -167 @ Simon Bold [-125 win only]

Final update: 6-3-0 and +6.20 units for the day; 15-16-2 and -6.57 units for the week

Face-saving final day to limit the huge losses of the first two days. The results in short: Perry/Allenby 5 up; Calcavecchia/Cook 1 down; Estes/Daly 1 up; Durant/Smith 1 up; Kendall/Smith 2 down; Kendall/Tryba 2 down; Verplank/Mediate 3 up; Verplank/Sposa 4 up; Paulson, D/Daly 5 up.

The two remaining 72-hole plays closed out as wins. By one shot for Hoch over Norman and by fourteen shots for Janzen over Allenby. This is an event that could have been a lot worse!

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -1.00 units

The sort of final day that would put anyone off outright betting! Very poor performances from most of the field and especially from the one with the most experience, Vijay Singh. Would anyone have expected such a poor display from Tiger? Singh finished one shot out of the playoff in 3rd. There was a tie for 3rd place, but like Olympic, Easybets do not divide the wager when there is a place tie Lehman had an awful weekend (72-75) and finished 28th, while Sluman was 66th. It seems an awful long time since we entered the weekend with picks standing 1st and 2nd in this event! But that makes it two 2nd place finishes and two 3rds across all events this week and not a single 1st place necessary for the bumper week