Air Canada Championship

Outright plays (1 unit):

Fred Funk to win 16/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Don't see too much value in this week's prices, but Sean Graham's offerings are a somewhat out of line with the rest. Couldn't find a large enough price for Lowery, but will take 14/1 and above for Funk. In the form of his life - three runners-up spots in his last five events, plus 4th in the PGA Championship - and has an equally impressive record on this course - 2nd in 1999 and 3rd last year. He is also benefiting from vociferous crows support at the moment. It may be four years since his last win, but he looks very likely to be in contention.

Peter Lonard to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Another player in excellent form. He has finished in the top-20 in nine of his last ten starts - a run that includes three majors - and finished with a closing 67 on Sunday. He did miss the cut last year, but, like Funk, his confidence is so high at the moment that he expects to contend every week.

Shigeki Maruyama to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Won his 2nd PGA Tour title three months ago and has secured two further top-5 finishes in high-ranking events since - 4th in the Memorial Tournament; 5th in the British Open. Very capable of winning this event, particularly as he now has course experience - 21st last year - and would have finished much higher last week had he not had his worst putting week since Hawaii. Looks a good price for someone who has already won this year.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Vijay Singh to beat Robert Allenby -111 @ BetandWin
Can't pick Vijay for the outrights again as he's still finding it difficult to stay in the top-5, let alone win, but his form over the last two weeks has been good and this looks an attractive price when it is generally -150 everywhere else.

Vijay Singh to beat Steve Lowery -155 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Leap of faith with the head-to-head stats here. Everything points to a good week for Lowery - current form and course form - but he has fared poorly when playing in the same tournaments as Vijay. The Fijian has a 15-4 head-to-head lead over Lowery in the past 12 months and 4-1 lead over the past 3 months, with the only defeat being by just two shots last week. Lowery may blow hot or cold, but Singh is simply the better player.

Joel Edwards to beat J.J. Henry +100 @ Victor Chandler
A 3rd place finish in the lesser Reno-Tahoe Open is presumably the reason why Edwards is the underdog in this matchup. But Edwards was playing in the NEC Invitational because he is the better player and his record in this event is excellent. He finished 12th and 13th in his two previous starts before winning this event last year.

Steve Elkington to beat Graeme McDowell +110 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Don't understand this price. McDowell did finish ahead of Elkington last week, but he was only 52nd and missed the cut in his only other start on the PGA Tour - the 2002 Houston Open. McDowell may have made a few headlines when he won the Scandinavian Masters, but it is another thing altogether to bring that form to this Tour. Elkington won't win this week, but should finish in the top-30 to win this matchup.

Bob May to beat Esteban Toledo +105 @ Moneyplays or GoTo Casino
May has been putting some good finishes together in the past couple of months with a number of top-20 finishes and should have a decent week with a top-30 finish on this course last year. Opposing Toledo who tends to either finish in the top-10 or a very long way down the leaderboard. Good for outrights, but opposable for matchups.

Mid-point update:

Singh/Allenby Trails by 6
Singh/Lowery Trails by 5
Edwards/Henry Leads by 1
Elkington/McDowell LOST by 10
May/Toledo LOST by 7

Funk 19th
Lonard 2nd
Maruyama 12th

Back to proper PGA Tour form after last week's sweep in the matchups! Elk started with a triple-bogey and gave up en route to an 80. Vijay will have to improve considerably if some respectability is to be gained with this week's matchups, though with three chances of a reward on the outrights, he may be forgiven this week.

Final update:

Matchups: 1-4-0; -6.21 units

Singh/Allenby LOST (ties lose @ BetandWin)
Singh/Lowery LOST by 1
Edwards/Henry WON by 3

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Funk 14th
Lonard 7th
Maruyama 23rd

Heavy loss on the event, but not a true reflection of selections. Singh did have a good weekend and went extremely close to beating both Lowery and Allenby, while one of the outright selections should have secured a top-5 finish ... especially Lonard who was 2nd with 18 holes to play, but dropped four shots in his first holes on Sunday.