Bay Hill Invitational

Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida
Yardage: 7239
Par: 72  (three par-fives)
USGA Rating: 75.1
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermudagrass - 6,500 sq.ft  (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Tiger Woods
2000 - Tiger Woods
1999 - Tim Herron
1998 - Ernie Els
1997 - Phil Mickelson
1996 - Paul Goydos
1995 - Loren Roberts
1994 - Loren Roberts
1993 - Ben Crenshaw
1992 - Fred Couples

Outright plays (1 unit unless stated):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetInternet  (w/o Woods)
Taking Singh in the w/o Woods market simply because of his suspect temperament when in the lead and Tiger does look like he's getting close to his best. Twice a runner-up this event (ominously), he has course form and has looked good this year, being in contention virtually every week. Should be the same again this week.

Bob Estes to win 40/1 e.w. @ Blue Square
Whereas last week was Vijay's first week off since January, Estes has played just five times. He has been in contention each time with the exception of the Phoenix Open and was runner-up here in 1998 and top-5 the following year. Looks rather large odds for someone so consistent.

Paul Azinger to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Zinger is a former winner of this event and is at his best on tough tracks. He put a poor West Coast Swing behind him with a fine performance in the World Matchplay and was also on contention at Doral where it was a big improvement in his greens hit in regulation that saw him much higher up the leaderboard. More of the same is required this week and while he would be a very surprising winner, he should in contention far more than his price would suggest.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Bob Estes to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -118 @ Centrebet
Olly would be a popular winner this week, but I just don't see it myself. For all that he has finished in the top-10 in his last three PGA Tour events, won the Buick Invitational and was a quarter-finalist in the World Matchplay, his stats are very poor. He ranked 25th in driving accuracy in the Nissan Open when finishing 9th, but in his other three events he has ranked 67th, 63rd and 77th (when winning the Buick Invitational) out of just the weekend qualifiers. In other words, basically last in driving accuracy. He has yet to finish in the top-10 in greens in regulation in any event and has done so only once in putting. In fact, from his tournament stats it is very hard to see how he scored so well. Driving accuracy will be at a premium this week and on a tougher course than in recent weeks, I expect Olly to find scoring a great deal more difficult. To oppose him with an outright selection is therefore automatic.

Justin Leonard to beat Jose Maria Olazabal +110 @ Olympic or Moneyplays
Also opposing him with Leonard at a nice price. Not a great record at Bay Hill, but far more accurate off the tee and should secure a safe top-30 position.

Davis Love to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @ Ladbrokes or BetInternet
Definitely going with course form here. Love has been erratic this year, but that is his nature and on a course on which he has been runner-up three times, he could win this event with ease. A Thursday morning tee-time will help him get 'in' the tournament as he is not one for chasing lost ground.

Lee Janzen to beat Niclas Fasth -140 @ WSEX
Going with course experience and the big improvement to a top-10 finish from Janzen last year. At his best on tough tracks, he looks good for a top-25 finish. Continue to be impressed by Fasth, but this is only a warm-up event for the TPC and Masters and he should be tired: in the past month he has played in Australia, California and Dubai.

Tom Lehman to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Was very surprised at Westwood's 15th place finish in the Nissan Open and he also won a couple of matches in the World Matchplay, but this is too soon to say if this is the return of his former self. Against a player with an impressive record on this course, including being runner-up three years ago and has had a solid season so far, I will side with Lehman.

Mid-point update:

Estes/Olazabal Trails by 4
Leonard/Olazabal Trails by 6
Love/Olazabal Trails by 5
Janzen/Fasth Trails by 4
Lehman/Westwood WON by 11

Singh 17th
Estes 39th
Azinger 28th

Not a good week so far to oppose Olly, but I still in relation to my original post about him I don't understand why he is currently 7th. He ranks 64th in driving distance, 44th in driving accuracy, 35th in greens in regulation and 19th in putts per greens in regulation. So how is he 7th??? At least all the losing plays have another 36 holes to make amends and the only play to the decided at the cut was a double-unit win.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3; -0.29 units

Estes/Olazabal LOST by 9
Leonard/Olazabal LOST by 10
Love/Olazabal LOST by 7
Janzen/Fasth WON by 1

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Singh 15th
Estes 45th
Azinger 25th

Not a great tournament, but really just not a good decision to oppose Olly. He was the cause of all the matchup losses - and quite heavy ones as well - while the double-unit play on Lehman over Westwood did at least ensure a break-even week on the matchups. Singh had every chance of finishing 2nd to Woods or at least within five places, but was again found wanting.