Buick Invitational

Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (North & South), La Jolla, California
Yardage: 6874 (North Course); 7055 (South Course)
Par: 72  (four par-fives at each course)
USGA Rating: 72.1 (North Course)
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermudagrass - 4,500 sq.ft (North Course); 5,800 sq.ft (South Course) (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Phil Mickelson
2000 - Phil Mickelson
1999 - Tiger Woods
1998 - Scott Simpson
1997 - Mark O'Meara
1996 - Davis Love
1995 - Peter Jacobsen
1994 - Craig Stadler
1993 - Phil Mickelson
1992 - Steve Pate

Outright plays:

Tom Lehman to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds
Not a frequent visitor to Torrey Pines, but with finishes of 6/15/13/3/13 his last five visits, he should be a regular. The recent changes made to the South course to make it a future U.S. Open site will suit Lehman. He recorded his only round over-par this season on Sunday, so no worries about current form.

Bob Estes to win 40/1 e.w. @ Blue Square
Significantly higher price at Blue Square than elsewhere so will probably not last. Not a great course record, but the changes will also suit Estes. He missed the cut in the Phoenix Open, but given that this was the first time that he had finished outside the top-10 since the PGA Championship in August, it can be easily ignored.

Kevin Sutherland to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
In an event in which eight of the last ten winners have been from California, the third selection is not surprising. Sutherland has finishes of 3/4/5/13 in the last four years and has been under-par in 21 of 23 career rounds on these courses. The course changes may hurt him, but his record at Torrey Pines is hard to ignore.

72-hole plays:

Jay Don Blake to beat John Senden -130 @ Camelot
Blake has a great record in this event. A winner in 1991, his finishes in the last five years read 11/27/mc/14/7. With a top-3 finish already this season and the course changes likely to suit his game far more than Senden's, he should beat the Australian making his debut at Torrey Pines

Fred Funk to beat Rory Sabbatini -118 @ Easybets
With a best of 52nd in three visits, Sabbatini was finding these courses hard enough before the changes. With accuracy more at a premium, he should find it difficult to maintain his recent good form. Funk has been top-30 in his last three visits and in his last three events. Solid enough to beat Sabbatini.

Jerry Kelly to beat Craig Stadler -140 @ WSEX
Stadler may have a great record in this event, but he is not the player who recorded his eighth consecutive top-30 in this event two years ago (that stretch includes victory in 1994), while Kelly has had a great start to the season; his missed cut in the 'giggle golf' is easy to ignore. Two players going to opposing directions.

Billy Mayfair to beat Peter Lonard -111 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Lonard enters this event after two weeks on the Australasian Tour, tiredness will surely take its effect, particularly having never played this course previously. Mayfair does have a mixed record in this event, but he is very accurate off the tee and should welcome the course changes.

Mid-point update:

Blake/Senden Trails by 6
Funk/Sabbatini Trails by 6
Kelly/Stadler WON by 4
Mayfair/Lonard LOST (Mayfair withdrew after the 1st round)

Lehman mc
Estes 39th
Sutherland 55th

The erratic nature of this year's PGA Tour continues. Woods struggles to make the cut, Mickelson is boom or bust and the leaderboard has a very unfamiliar look to it yet again. In other words, I'm still struggling on this Tour this year. The outrights are nowhere and the top matchup play loses to a WD - Mayfair had been level with Lonard overnight

Final update:

Matchups: 1-3; -3.70 units

Blake/Senden LOST by 6
Funk/Sabbatini LOST by 3

Outrights: 1-2; -0.67 units

Estes 5th
Sutherland 44th

Thankful that Estes shot a final round 66 to get 5th place. Pity that he failed to birdie the par-5 last hole and so not have to share that final place position. Otherwise, another disappointing week.