Buick Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Scott Verplank to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Five Dimes (.5 units to win & .5 units to finish in top-5), though generally available
This event is traditionally played the week before the PGA Championship and as a result, it the longer odds players that traditionally win this event. It is easy to side-step the favourites and the 'w/o Woods' markets this week. First up is the very consistent Verplank. He has missed only two cuts in the last fifteen months and has won in each of the last two years. His record in this event is also encouraging. He won this event in 1988, has not been over-par in his last 14 rounds here and while he has missed the cut five times in his last ten starts at Warwick Hills (though not in the last two years), on the other five occasions he has finished no worse than 16th.

Jim Furyk to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds or Paddy Power
Another player to back on course form. He has made the cut on all his seven previous visits, finishing top-20 on five of those occasions and finished 2nd to Kenny Perry last year having been 1st round leader and no worse than 2nd at the end of each day. A concern could be his current form - he has missed his last two cuts. But a surprising trend has occurred in Furyk's finishes: since March, he has repeatedly missed two cuts then had two high finishes (including winning the Memorial Tournament) then two missed cuts and so on. Coming off two missed cuts, let's hope the trend continues. He was also coming off a missed cut and some indifferent June/July form last year before he came so close to winning.

Stuart Appleby to win 66/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Not quite the same course form with Appleby, though he has made the cut on his three previous visits and has been very much in contention over the weekend on his last two visits (1999 and 2001) before falling away on the Sunday. It is his current form that makes this price rather large though. His missed cut under the convoluted points system of last week can be ignored, particularly after it was his first event after losing in a playoff for the British Open. Having finished 5th in the Western Open in his previous event, he should not be this price.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Chris DiMarco to beat Rocco Mediate -110 @ BetInternet
Mediate may have a good record around this course, having won this event in 2000 and finished in the top-10 two more times in the past five years, but he is in poor form at the moment. DiMarco may not be close to his West Coast Swing form, but he still leads Mediate 3-0 in head-to-head matchups over the last 3 months and 11-3 over the past year. He also finished 2nd in this event last year.

Lee Janzen to beat Billy Mayfair +103 @ WIT
Opposing another former winner (1998) who is not in the best of form at the moment. He finished 5th in the WorldCom Classic and the U.S. Open, but to find another top-10 finish we would have to go back to the 2001 British Open. Janzen finished 6th last week, has two top-20 finishes in the last five years at Warwick Hills and leads Mayfair 6-1 in head-to-head matchups over the past three months.

Frank Lickliter to beat Ian Leggatt -125 @ Aces
Both top-10 last year, so siding with Lickliter on the basis of current form. He leads Leggatt 4-0 in head-to-head matchups over the past three months, including last week when he finished 7th.

Bob Tway to beat Jeff Maggert -137 @ Surrey
Maggert may have finished in the top-10 in the last two years here, but Tway has done so three times in the last six years and two of the other finishes have been top-25. Tway is also playing far better: he leads Maggert 5-1 in head-to-head matchups over the last three months with the solitary defeat at the U.S. Open which has no resemblance to the set-up at Warwick Hills.

Scott Verplank to beat Jeff Sluman -125 @ Centrebet
Good performance from Sluman in the Scandinavian Masters last week, but it can hardly be ideal preparation for this event or a substitute for playing in the British Open. Verplank continued his fine form in that event and comes to Michigan refreshed after a break. He's beaten Sluman three times in the last four years here and this year should make it four.

Mid-point update:

DiMarco/Mediate WON by 3
Janzen/Mayfair LOST by 2
Lickliter/Leggatt WON by 3
Tway/Maggert WON by 8
Verplank/Sluman Leads by 3

Verplank 2nd
Furyk 10th
Appleby 27th

Great position at the cut with three of four matchups victorious and the outrights would be just celebratory were it not for the fact that a certain Mr. Woods is leading and Verplank is paired with him today. Not many stay with him, let alone close the gap, in that situation.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2; +0.75 units

Verplank/Sluman LOST by 1

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Verplank 22nd
Furyk 10th
Appleby 22nd

Disappointing weekend, though there was a sense of foreboding on Friday night. Verplank did lose his game when playing with Tiger and he lost the matchup and the top-5 position as a result. Furyk had plenty of chances secure a place win, but finished two short in the end. Looked like being a great event, but still ended up a loser.