Byron Nelson Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Sergio Garcia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
Fresh off his first win of the year in Europe, Garcia has an excellent chance this week of adding his second on the PGA Tour. Finishes of 3rd, 15th and 8th are supportive, but in his two other starts in the Lone Star State, he has finished 1st (2001 Colonial) and 2nd (2001 Tour Championship). These tight courses should reward Garcia's excellent driving whereas most of the other headline names are much more wayward off the tee.

David Toms to win 36/1 e.w. @ Olympic  (.5 units to win; .5 units to show)
Toms is anything but wayward off the tee, ranking in the top-20 in all the major stats except driving distance. He comes into the event in solid form and looked a potential winner last week until dropping four shots in four shots on the back nine. He could well make amends this week as the Louisiana man has an impressive record in his neighbouring state. In a run dating back to the 2000 Byron Nelson Classic, he has finished in the top-20 in eight of nine events in Texas. The 36/1 looks large for such a player.

Davis Love to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler or BetDirect
I hate backing Davis Love, but at this price I can't resist the temptation. There is nothing wrong with his current form - he finished 14th when tipped for the Masters having been the 1st round leader and finished 5th in WorldCom Classic, again having been the 1st round leader with an opening 62. There is nothing wrong with his course form - he has played here just once since the 1997 event and lost in a playoff with Jesper Parnevik and Phil Mickelson on that occasion (2000). There is nothing wrong with his record in Texas either - since the end of 1997, he has played in five events in Texas and finished in the top-3 on three occasions, while both the other two 'failings' were still top-15 finishes. I'm sure the price would be lower if this were any other player!

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to beat Mark Calcavecchia -110 @ Surrey
Can't find any inspiring matchups out there this week, but Weir is a perfect matchup player. Does not convert enough chances to win tournaments, but last year he made the cut in 20 of 23 events and has done the same in all his nine starts this year, in which he has finished in the top-25 in his last five events. By comparison, Calc missed twice as many cuts last year and has done the same in four of eleven starts this year. Has played better in the last few weeks, but he has a very poor record in this event.

Vijay Singh to beat Ernie Els +100 @ Intertops
Basically dismissing Vijay's recent foot injury as he had been able to practice before he walked his first round since the Masters on Tuesday and he plans to play the next three tournaments. He wouldn't do that if he was still injured. Should be a welcome return to Texas as he won the Houston Open in March and has a very good record in this State overall. The same cannot be said for Els who won this event in 1995, but failed to register another top-10 finish in Texas until the 2001 Tour Championship. Very poor performance from Els last week, so will side the Fijian at this price.

Mid-point update:

Weir/Calcavecchia LOST by 5
Singh/Els LOST by 1

Garcia mc
Toms 25th
Love 60th

Ouch! Five selections and three miss the cut. Admittedly Calc missed the cut as well, but there were only six players who finished behind Weir. Little unfortunate with the Singh/Els matchup as Els made the cut on the line and Singh missed it by one. Looks like interest remains only with David Toms this weekend - he is only six shots behind the current leader.

Final update:

Matchups: 0-2; -2.10 units

Both decided at the cut.

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Toms 4th
Love 50th

Toms birdied the last three holes to secure a tie for 4th with Els and limit the losses on this event. Enjoyable finish to watch, but very unappealing to bet on.