MasterCard Colonial

Outright plays (1 unit):

Phil Mickelson to win 10/1 e.w. @ Olympic [.5 units to win; .5 units to show] or Sports.com
Davis Love last week and Phil Mickelson this week ... signs of the desperate! For all Lefty's faults, he does have a great record on this course, particularly in the last two years when he has finished 1st and 2nd. Generally available at 8/1, I'll take the saver on the each-way at these odds just in case his temperament gets the better of him again in the final stretch.

David Toms to win 20/1 e.w. @ SportsInteraction
Looking for Toms to carry on where he left off last week. He carded a closing 66 to gain a share of 4th place last week as a selection, having finished 9th the previous week in the New Orleans Classic which was his first event since the Masters. Has finishes of 4th and 8th on this course in the last two years and has a game that should suit this tight course. He looks an obvious choice this week.

Justin Leonard to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet
Leonard in his home State is just as obvious: he has finished in the top-6 in six of his last eight events in Texas. Has a good record in this event, finishing 5th last year and like Toms, has a game that suits a tight course. Currently in a rich vein of form, including winning the WorldCom Classic last month, so should go close again.

Matchup play (1 unit):

Davis Love to beat John Huston -110 @ LuvBet
Both have good course form in recent years, but Huston appears to be out-of-form at the moment. A best of 30th in his last four events is not impressive. So long as Love can remains interested, he is the better player in the better form.

Adding (1 unit):

David Duval to beat Jim Furyk -125 @ Cascade or WIT
Furyk may have had some decent performances on this course, but he is woefully out-of-form at the moment, having missed three cuts in his last five starts and two of those were in the two Texas events so far this year. Duval is not a likely winner this week, but he secured his second top-15 finish of the year last week and has beaten Furyk in each of their last three common events.

Craig Perks to beat Mathew Goggin -143 @ TattsBet
This shouldn't last until the weekend. Perks is 2-for-7 in cuts made in Texan PGA Tour events, while Goggin is 0-for-5. Perks seems to have regained his former game after the shock of winning the Players Championship - after three missed cuts he has made the last two. Looks the better player with Goggin failing to make the cut in two Buy.com events last month.

Davis Love to beat John Huston -110 @ LuvBet
Adding another unit. Once again, can't find much of interest on the PGA Tour, but this one appeals the most.

Scott Verplank to beat Lee Janzen -133 @ Easybets
Last week's 27th place finish was Janzen's best event since the Buick Invitational over three months ago. He has struggled with his game, particularly under the pressure of Sundays, and with his dismal record at the Colonial - just two cuts made in the last six visits - it is hard to see him match last week's performance. Verplank was never on the pace last week, but has been very consistent all season and has an equally consistent record on this course.

Kenny Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -111 @ Sporting Odds
Siding with Perry and course form in this matchup as Kelly has been very consistent all season and Perry only started to show his earlier season form last week, at least until a final round 77 saw him plummet down the leaderboard. Perry has failed to make the weekend just once in the last ten years at the Colonial, whereas Kelly has done so in only half of his six previous visits. Last year he missed the cut when in arguably even better form than at the moment.

Mid-point update:

Love/Huston All Square
Duval/Furyk LOST by 1
Perks/Goggin WON by 7
Verplank/Janzen Leads by 4
Perry/Kelly Leads by 4

Mickelson 62nd
Toms 54th
Leonard 12th

Very irritating loss on Duval who shot 8-over-par for his last eight holes to miss the cut and lose by one to Furyk   Promising position in the other matchups, though the outright selections have left themselves an awful lot to do if they are finish in the top-5.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-1-0; +3.75 units

Love/Huston WON by 5
Verplank/Huston WON by 6
Perry/Kelly WON by 8

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Mickelson 23rd
Toms 2nd
Leonard 19th

Thought Toms might win this event halfway through the final round, but Price was a very worthy winner ... just a pity he couldn't do in the past month when he's been an outright selection! Good week on the matchups and almost a sweep, so that's one pleasing event this week at least