The Disney Golf Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

David Toms to win 24/1 e.w. [win & show] @ Olympic
Has become a very consistent player with top-15 regular finishes though he has yet to win this year after winning three times in 2001. Has improved each year since he returned to this event - 57th, 18th and 6th in the last three years - being a runners-up spot the next step in that pattern. Will take that place, but he has shown that he can beat Tiger in the past ...

Davis Love to win 25/1 e.w. @ Tote
Not really one who has shown he can beat Tiger in a head-to-head situation, but he does have excellent course credentials and has played well this summer, including his last two starts, both WGC events. Love has finished 2nd in two of his last three visits and had a good opportunity to catch Coceres last year, but fell short. Maybe another selection that should finish 2nd, but capable of winning if Tiger is not around.

Chris DiMarco to win 50/1 e.w. @ SportsInteraction
Had a disappointing weekend last week when a selection, but is retained at this price. Has a decent but unspectacular record on this course, but should post his best finish this week. He has only missed one cut all year (Sony Open in January) and has been showing signs of improved form in recent weeks with strong performances at Mount Juliet and last week until the weekend. Was 33/1 last week, so even with Tiger in the field this looks an attractive price.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

John Huston to beat Rich Beem -125 @ Gamebookers [2 units]
Continuing to oppose Beem whose form since he took a two-week break after the NEC Invitational has not been good. He managed to squander an opening 64 last week and was a profitable player to oppose in three matchups. Will do the same again and double the stakes. He has missed the cut in his only two previous starts in this event and in eight of his last ten starts in Florida. Huston has won this event twice before and since finishing 4th in the Pennsylvania Classic and secured top-20 finishes in his next three events. Looks easy on paper!

Jerry Kelly to beat Rich Beem -110 @ BetInternet [2 units]
Misses too many cuts, but Kelly should avoid the same this week. He has failed to reach the weekend on three of his four visits, but he did secure a top-10 finish on his visit and he is a different player this year, having won twice and finish no worse than 21st in his three previous visits to Florida this season. A better player for outrights, but should still beat the fading Beem.

Rocco Mediate to beat Rich Beem -111 @ SportsInterAction [2 units]
Very consistent, though hardly the iron man of the Tour. His last three events have been the PGA Championship (finished 6th), NEC Invitational (24th) and American Express Championship (15th) and being able to compete in these events is something that Beem cannot do consistently. Has a decent record in this event and finished in the top-3 in both Florida starts this year. Should be a top-20 finish at least for Mediate.

Billy Mayfair to beat Jose Coceres -111 @ BetandWin
Less emphatic in opposing Coceres, but expect him to finish mid-table at best as defending champion. Apart from a 10th place finish in the PGA Championship, he has shown little of the form that earned him two titles last year. Mayfair is not the most dependable of players, but he did finish 5th in the Michelob Championship two weeks ago and was in contention for the first four rounds last week and was ranked 4th in greens in regulation. Should go close to securing his third top-20 in the four years at the Disney.

Bernhard Langer to beat Glen Day -111 @ BetandWin
Day is quite a course specialist - he had six top-15 finishes from seven starts before he finished 46th last year. Langer beat him on that occasion and fully expect him to do so again. He had been playing well before the Ryder Cup, including a runners-up spot in the BMW International, and their head-to-head record on this Tour is very supportive: Langer leads 19-3-0 over the last three years and 6-0-0 over the past year.

Davis Love to beat Jeff Sluman -125 @ Sportingbet or Sporting Odds
Sluman is undeniably playing some of the best golf of his career at the moment - a winner in the Greater Milwaukee Open and top-10 finishes in three of his last four starts - but he is simply not in the same class of player as Love and certainly not on this course where Love's record is documented above.

Scott Verplank to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ SkyBet
Faded badly after a very strong start to last week's event, but still expect a good week Verplank. He showed good form before and during the Ryder Cup and has a good record on this course since he returned in the last three years. Opting for the more consistent player in this matchup.

Kenny Perry to beat Kirk Triplett -125 @ Sportingbet or Sporting Odds
Both players stink in this event, but backing Perry to be the player with the better chance of making the weekend. He has finished in the top-30 in his last four (high quality) events and his head-to-head record against Triplett is appealing: 11-3-2 over the past 12 months and 2-0-0 on this course in the past three years.

Mid-point update:

Huston/Beem LOST by 5
Kelly/Beem Leads by 1
Mediate/Beem LOST by 2
Mayfair/Coceres WON by 6
Langer/Day WON by 6
Love/Sluman Trails by 5
Verplank/McCarron Leads by 4
Perry/Triplett Trails by 2

Toms 45th
Love 63rd
DiMarco 1st

Good week to oppose Beem - he languishes in 45th position - just not with the above selections! Huston and Mediate both missed the cut. Not the top-20 finish I had expected from both of them. Could yet break even on the matchups, but will be unimportant if DiMarco can hang on to the lead. This will be the sixth time that he has the lead after 36 holes on the PGA Tour and he has yet to win from this position. Should be a long weekend!

Final update:

Matchups: 4-4-0; -4.17 units

Kelly/Beem LOST by 2
Love/Sluman WON by 6
Verplank/McCarron WON by 5
Perry/Triplett LOST by 6

Outrights: 1-2; +3.75 units

Toms 6th
Love 17th
DiMarco 2nd

One that got away. It was ironic that DiMarco holed a monster putt on the last hole as he had missed opportunity after opportunity until then. He missed out by a shot from a very impressive Bob Burns. Toms almost missed out by a shot. He dropped a shot on the last hole to fall out of a top-4 payout. Will continue to oppose Beem who finished 47th, just need to find some selections who can finish in the top-50!