Houston Open

Course: TPC at The Woodlands, The Woodlands, Texas
Yardage: 7018
Par: 72  (four par-fives)
USGA Rating: 73.7
Greens: Champion Bermudagrass - 7,000 sq.ft  (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Hal Sutton
2000 - Robert Allenby
1999 - Stuart Appleby
1998 - David Duval
1997 - Phil Blackmar
1996 - Mark Brooks
1995 - Payne Stewart
1994 - Mike Heinen
1993 - Jim McGovern
1992 - Fred Funk

Outright plays (1 unit unless stated):

David Toms to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
Class player whose game hasn't rediscovered the heights of Hawaii. The move away from Florida to Texas should suit as he has an excellent record in this state. Since the 1999 Texas Open, he has played 11 events in the Lone Star State and barring last year's Texas Open he has finished no worse than 27th in all of them. A better closer of events than many of this week's top players.

Scott Verplank to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill or Eurobet [5 place option]
Hasn't played this course since 1992 when he gave up on this course having missed four cuts from four starts on it. Ten years on and Verplank is a new player, particularly since his win in the 2000 Reno-Tahoe Open. In his Texas events last year, he did finish 5th in the Byron Nelson Classic and 2nd in the Tour Championship and with accuracy at a premium this week - rainfall in Houston is barely over half of the March average - he should be well-suited to finally conquer this course before the event moves to Redlands in 2003.

Justin Leonard to win 40/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Leonard has not fared particularly well in Florida, so will relish the return to his home state which is where he makes his money. From the Texas Open in 2000, he has finished 1st, 4th, 6th, 5th and 1st (2001 Texas Open) in his home state, before finishing 22nd in the Tour Championship. That run includes 4th at The Woodlands last year and if he is to re-start his season, it will surely come this week.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -115 @ Carib
Top-10 last week, 5th in the Genuity Championship and reached the 3rd round in the World Matchplay, Price is in fine form and returns to this course after a seven-year absence. Looks set for another fine week. Campbell has been impressive in his last two PGA Tour events, but having never played in Texas, let alone at The Woodlands, he is opposed in this matchup.

Vijay Singh to beat John Huston -125 @ Easybets
Huston has played well in his last two events in Florida, but it worries me that he has not played in this event since 1998 and only occasionally beforehand. A fine record in Texas, but I don't see him winning outside Florida. Singh, on the other hand, has been a regular competitor in this event, finishing 5th and 6th on his last two visits, and may have benefited from taking the weekend off. His record the week following missed cuts - and there have been very few of them - on the PGA Tour is very impressive.

Scott Verplank to beat Colin Montgomerie -130 @ Cascade
Monty was heckled again last week and it no doubt contributed to his lackluster performance after a promising opening round. He has never played in Texas or this event and will surely struggle again this week. Easy to side with an outright pick in this matchup.

Steve Stricker to beat Greg Norman -125 @ Centrebet
A withdrawal after the 1st round (back pain) and a missed cut (74-78) is Norman's record in the last two weeks. On a course on which he has not played since 1991 and in Texas in which he has played only once his 1997 - a missed cut in the 2001 Colonial - Norman looks very opposable this week, even with Stricker who is not the most accurate of players off the tee. A top-20 finish last week is encouraging though.

Adding:

Larry Mize to beat Paul Gow -111 @ BetandWin
Definitely a play against Gow who has played nine events this year and has made only cut! Mize opened his season last week and missed the cut, but it was by a single shot and he still finished six shots ahead of Gow.

Mid-point update:

Price/Campbell WON by 9
Singh/Huston Leads by 11
Verplank/Montgomerie Leads by 6
Stricker/Norman LOST by 8
Mize/Gow WON by 4

Toms 31st
Verplank 6th
Leonard 9th

A favorable position at half-time, but a wild finish in two matchups. Gow dropped eight shots in the last three holes - he finished with a 9 on the 18th - to award an undeserved victory to Mize; Stricker dropped four shots in the last three holes to miss the cut and surrender the chance to catch the Shark. Barring any more wild finishes, should get a good result in the matchups and at least one top-5 position from here.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-1-0; +2.75 units

Singh/Huston WON by 13
Verplank/Montgomerie WON by 8

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Toms 17th
Verplank 14th
Leonard 6th

Disappointing to not even break even on this event. Won four of five matchups and all three outrights were in contention for a place win, but none did. Definitely improving after a difficult start to the year with this Tour though.