Invensys Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet or UKBetting
After two weeks of backing a player to achieve the three-peat, siding with a player to a title four times in eight years. He averages less than 68 per round in this event and no-one else is anywhere near that. Furyk is definitely the course specialist. While he did miss the cut last year, that was in the middle of three missed cuts in a row and there is no such worries about his form this year. In an open event, he has a better chance than most.

Chris DiMarco to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes or Tote
Not in the same form as Furyk, though he did beat him in Ireland, and not the same course form, but it is still impressive anyway. After missing the cut on his first four visits, DiMarco has finished 5th and 13th in the last two years, It was a similar story with the  Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. DiMarco was woeful in that event until 2000 and then he returned this year to finish 6th. In the other pro-am on the circuit, the NCR Classic, the improvement came in 1999. He has obviously learned how to play in the pro-am format.

Scott Verplank to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Not generally regarded as a player who can shoot low scores - he is very straight off the tee - but he joins Chris DiMarco inside the top-20 in the 'Birdie Average' rankings this year and he has secured three top-15 finishes in this event in the last four years. In terms of the other pro-ams, which also require low-shooting, he finished 4th in the NCR Classic in 2000 and 4th in the Bob Hope last year. Coming a good Ryder Cup - two wins from three matches and 6-under-par when beating Lee Westwood - this represents a good opportunity for him to claim his Tour Championship spot.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Stuart Appleby to beat Rich Beem -115 @ Bet365
Opposing Beem again whose bubble has surely burst. He has missed the cut, finished 49th of 65 and then 67th in his three tournament since returning to action after his hot streak in August. His course form of two missed cuts and a 33rd place finish in 2000 is also supportive. Easy to side with Appleby who has put together some decent finishes in the last two months in high class events and has made the cut in two out of three starts in this event.

Charles Howell to beat Rich Beem -120 @ GameDay
Many parallels have been made with Duval's victory in the 1997 Michelob and while I don't expect Howell to similarly win his next two events as well, he should be able to repeat last year's top-20 finish. Has a good record in pro-ams and would have been considered this week had he not won on Sunday.

Jeff Sluman to beat Rich Beem -110 @ BetInternet
Slu has an erratic record in this event - two high finishes, two lowly finishes and two missed cuts in his last six visits - but he has rarely been in his current form. He has made the cut in his last nine events, won the Greater Milwaukee Open and finished in the top-10 four times in that spell. Would have found Beem a difficult opponent in August, but he was not the same player after taking a two-week break.

Mark Calcavecchia to beat John Daly -143 @ Gamebookers
Daly is another standard go-against. He walked off the course during his 2nd round in his last event, the Tampa Bay Classic, and it was reported that his mobile home was parked close to that green at the time! Apart from two top-10 finishes in Europe this summer, it has been a torrid year since he began so promisingly in January/February. Just can't see a repeat of last year's top-10 finish - he was in a golden run of form that included victory in the BMW International Open. Calc played some impressive golf at the Ryder Cup and had a run of finishing 3rd, 4th and 2nd from 1996 to 1998 in this event. Should only need to make the cut to win this match.

Scott Verplank to beat Chris Riley -125 @ Bet365
The last time Riley played in his home State, he won the Reno-Tahoe Open, but that was a week with a hot putter. He took just 97 all week to top the putts per round category for that event, while finishing outside the top-50 in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats. It had been his strong greens in regulation stats that had been the hallmark of his high finishes in July/August and now that his stats show that he is struggling in this department, he has struggled to score since, finishing mid-table in the three events since that victory. Unless his putter get really hot again, he is not playing well enough to win this low-scoring event and so Verplank looks the better prospect this week.

Mid-point update:

Appleby/Beem Leads by 6
Howell/Beem Leads by 6
Sluman/Beem Leads by 8
Calcavecchia/Daly WON by 15
Verplank/Riley Trails by 2

Furyk 1st
DiMarco 5th
Verplank 43rd

Pretty good event so far. Handsome leads in the matchups and two in the top-5. Only Verplank has disappointed. He had a poor round and lost his top-10 position, but hopefully he can bounce back today and overtake Riley at least. The PGA Tour season is certainly ending better than it started!

Final update:

Matchups: 4-1-0; +2.75 units

Appleby/Beem WON by 10
Howell/Beem WON by 7
Sluman/Beem WON by 10
Verplank/Riley LOST by 5

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Furyk 4th
DiMarco 16th
Verplank 51st

Small profit on the event, but it was another one that got away this week. Furyk lead for most of the week, but few had any answer to Tataurangi's final round 62. DiMarco had a disappointing weekend to fall out of a top-5 place, while Verplank only figured on the first day and was a poor player to back this week.