Kemper Insurance Open

Course: TPC at Avenel, Potomac, Maryland
Yardage: 7005 
Par: 71 (three par-fives)
USGA Rating: 74.0
Greens: Poa Annua - 6,912 sq.ft  (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Frank Lickliter
2000 - Tom Scherrer
1999 - Rich Beem
1998 - Stuart Appleby
1997 - Justin Leonard
1996 - Steve Stricker
1995 - Lee Janzen
1994 - Mark Brooks
1993 - Grant Waite
1992 - Bill Glasson

Outright plays (1 unit):

Justin Leonard to win 12/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Nothing particularly inspired this week. Just obvious form players with good course form. Leonard disappointed last week when in a very good position to win the Memorial, but his underlying form remains very impressive. His run of top-20 finishes has now been extended to six and against this weak field, it should be seven. A winner in 1997, he was 2nd to Scherrer two years ago.

Chris DiMarco to win 16/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Slowly recovering the form of January/February, DiMarco has only shot one round over par in his last sixteen and that was in the final round of the Masters. Has a great record on this course - albeit primarily before the weekend. In 1998 and 2000, he was 2nd after 36 holes and last year he was 4th at the same stage having been one of the first-round leaders. Now a much more consistent player with two wins at the end of last year/start of this year, he should be able to remain in contention a little longer.

Stuart Appleby to win 25/1 e.w. @ Blue Square or Heathorns
Another former winner, Appleby won this title in 1998. In six previous visits, he has finished outside the top-20 just once and that was last year. He had approached the event in poor form, but it still didn't stop him being one of the 1st round leaders. In much better form at the moment, having finished 14th in the Greater Greensboro Classic and 8th in MasterCard Colonial and was 3rd after the 1st round last week only to slip back.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Kirk Triplett to beat Tommy Armour -110 @ LuvBet [3 units]
Neither player in great form or with a great history on this course, but Triplett is by far the better player. Since finishing 7th in the Sony Open, Armour has missed 7 of 12 cuts with a best finish of 29th. Even an out-of-form Triplett can easily beat that. He leads him 4-2 in common events this year and can at least boast a cut ratio of 50% in this event; for Armour it is just four in the last ten years.

Tom Lehman to beat Mark Calcavecchia +105 @ Five Dimes
Continuing to oppose Calc who missed the cut by a long way last week after rounds of 75 and 76. Other than two weeks in April this has been a very difficult year for him. Lehman is coming nicely into form with three top-25 finishes and with a decent finish on this course last year, he can be expected to again be in contention at some stage this week.

Chris DiMarco to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -118 @ Centrebet
Siding with an outright pick against a player who has struggled this month. He should have won the French Open, but played poorly in the last round. He needed a final round 69 to prevent himself finishing last at the weekend in the Benson & Hedges International and just about came last of the weekend golfers last week in the Volvo PGA Championship. Olly will welcome the return to warmer weather, but this frustrating spell in cold, blustery Britain will not have aided his game. Too soon for a return to his pre-Europe form.

Frank Lickliter to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ LuvBet [2 units]
Don't get many opportunities to oppose Franco, but will take this one even with the defending champion. In typical Franco fashion, he made the cut last year, but gave up trying over the weekend. He closed 75-79 last year to finish 80th; last week he finished 78-79 to finish 75th in the Memorial and didn't even make the weekend in the tournament before that (the New Orleans Classic). Quite a contrast in form to Lickliter who shot a poor 74 to fall to 42nd last week, but had finished 8th in the Byron Nelson Classic and 12th in the MasterCard Colonial beforehand.

Steve Stricker to beat Phil Tataurangi -111 @ Ladbrokes
Will take a chance on Stricker in this match, basically because it very depends on him whether he wins this match or not. He has made just 7 cuts from 12 starts, but when he has made the weekend he has finished in the top-25 on six of those occasions. It is a similar story on this course. In the last six years, he has missed the cut twice, but on three of the other four occasions he finished in the top-10, winning the event in 1996. Tataurangi has had some impressive finishes this year, but can't compete with Stricker if he's brought his game with him.

Mid-point update:

Triplett/Armour All Square
Lehman/Calcavecchia LOST by 5
DiMarco/Olazabal Leads by 3
Lickliter/Franco LOST by 5
Stricker/Tataurangi LOST by 5

Leonard 32nd
DiMarco 18th
Appleby 66th

0-3 in completed matchups is not good, but can still break even if DiMarco holds off Olly and Triplett beats Armour. Would take break-even looking when looking at the leaderboard after 36 holes. Lots of inexperience and long winless streaks there, so DiMarco and Leonard could yet get something out of this week.

Final update:

Matchups: 1-4; -6.61 units

Triplett/Armour LOST  (finished all square, but ties lose @ LuvBet)
DiMarco/Olazabal WON by 3

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Leonard 5th
DiMarco 18th
Appleby 18th

This Tour is killing me! Triplett dropped five shots in the last four holes to shoot 78 and tie with Armour and so lose the play. It would have been a break-even week on the matchups otherwise. Appleby looked like he'd get a place finish, but then dropped four shots in the last five holes. Leonard looked like he could win the event, but then double-bogeyed the 17th to finish 5th and I'd taken the odds at Easybets who only offer 4 places