The Masters

Course: Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
Yardage: 7270
Par: 72  (four par-fives)
Greens: Bentgrass - 6,150 sq.ft  (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Tiger Woods
2000 - Vijay Singh
1999 - Jose Maria Olazabal
1998 - Mark O'Meara
1997 - Tiger Woods
1996 - Nick Faldo
1995 - Ben Crenshaw
1994 - Jose Maria Olazabal
1993 - Bernhard Langer
1992 - Fred Couples

Outright plays:

Sergio Garcia to win 18/1 e.w. @ UKBetting or Sports.com
Not a very impressive course history, but much more mature than in previous years and the experience of being the favorite to win the 2001 U.S. Open with 18 holes to play will be of great benefit should he contend this week. The course changes should suit him. There is now more emphasis on good driving rather than power driving and he is the best driver on the PGA Tour. Currently ranked 3rd in total driving, he ranked 1st last year and 3rd in 1999. With a deft a touch around the green as Olazabal, this really should be an excellent opportunity to gain his 2nd Tour win of the season.

Vijay Singh to win 25/1 e.w. @ Heathorns
With the course changes ruling out a shorter-hitter, Singh is one who remains one of the dwindling number of contenders this week. He has good course form, winning the event two years ago, and has finally won again on the PGA Tour - in the Houston Open two weeks ago - to get that monkey off his back. He is playing well and skipped the Honda Classic to get some practice on the new Augusta. Despite the course changes, he equaled the course record 63 during that week.

Davis Love to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Heathorns, UKBetting or Sports.com
Okay, this breaks the 1st rule of betting golf: never bet on Davis Love ... but he is very capable of winning this event. He claimed after his first round last week that he was striking the ball well and it was just bad breaks that meant he shot 42-30 in the first round. He just had too many self-destruct holes last week - alongside eleven birdies, he had two double-bogeys, a triple-bogey and a quadruple bogey in the opening 36 holes. He missed the cut, but he did the same in the Buick Open, the week before he won the PGA Championship in 1997. Typical Davis Love. He played injured last year and took a two-month break before playing in the U.S. Open even though he could hardly swing at the start of the week. He contended all week and finished 7th. He had another two-month break after the NEC Invitational because of his injured neck and finished 4th in the Invensys Classic on his return. Typical Davis Love. With finishes of 2nd, 7th, 7th, 33rd, 2nd and 7th from 1995 to 2001 before playing injured last year and being on record as saying "I love it" about the course changes, Davis Love could have a typical week and win this event or a typical week and bogey the first hole and never be seen again!

Prop play:

Tiger Woods to finish better than 5th +100 @ Cascade [2 units]
Forget regular Tour events, Woods has been gearing his season towards this event, has finished in the top-5 in the last two Masters and the course changes eliminate a lot of players from contending this week. Also a hedge play should he win this event and deny one of the outright picks a handsome profit.

Prop play:

Highest 18-hole score under 88.5 -110 @ Olympic [2 units]
There's no Doug Ford, Billy Casper or Gay Brewer this year. All were sent a letter from club chairman, Hootie Johnson, in February asking them not to exercise their right as former winners and play this week. Not a very dignified way to address former winners, but it does mean that there are basically only three players that could shoot this number: Arnold Palmer, Tommy Aaron and Charles Coody. Palmer has only once scored worse than this number - 89 in 1997. Apart from a 3rd round 86 in 2000, Aaron's highest score has been 83 which he scored 1988. And Coody's highest score is 85 which he shot in 1998. Last year he scored a level-par 72 in the 2nd round. It is only the lengthening of the course that stops this being a 3-unit play.

Matchup plays:

Stewart Cink to beat Mark Calcavecchia +100 @ Cascade
Opposing Calc this week. Has a decent record at Augusta, but his form this year has been awful since the Tour left Hawaii. His foot injury may be one reason for this and his recent electric shock treatment on his heel should benefit him in the long-run, but as he will be wearing special shoes or insoles this week, this looks to be a rather early return to walking such a hilly course. Cink disappointed last week, but he has had some solid performances this year and had three consecutive top-30 finishes before last year's missed cut.

Scott Hoch to beat Mark Calcavecchia -115 @ Intertops
Much better current form from Hoch - 9th at Bay Hill and 4th in the Players Championship - and respectable course form as well. He very rarely misses the cut here, finished in the top-10 twice in the mid-1990s and was the leader with three holes to play in the 1989 Masters. He eventually lost by two to Nick Faldo to earn the silent 'C' at the start of his name. Many pundits have suggested that his career would have been very different had he held on to beat Faldo, but this week another solid mid-table performance will suffice.

Rocco Mediate to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ BetandWin
Much has been made of Campbell's 2nd place finish in the Bay Hill Invitational and his 11th place finish in the Players Championship, but it must also be remembered that Mediate finished 3rd in both of those events. Cambo missed the cut last year and also in 1996 as an amateur; Mediate has played here five times and every time he made the weekend.

Sergio Garcia to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -110 @ Surrey
Have had similar seasons with one win apiece, standing #1 and #2 in top-10 finishes and both in the top-5 in scoring average on the PGA Tour though Olazabal's resurgence is the more headline-grabbing. But Olazabal's scoring has been based around scrambling - he lies 2nd in that category whereas he was 54th last year - and while that is always important at Augusta, there is much more emphasis on good driving this week with the course changes. Garcia is ranked 3rd in total driving; Olazabal is 119th.

Prop plays:

Greg Norman to miss the cut +110 @ Olympic or Stan James
Has made the cut in just two of four starts this season and two of the last five Masters since losing the 1996 title to Faldo. Not long enough any more for this course and has lost his putting touch which is even more important around Augusta. While not in the official Tour stats, he would have ranked 141st in driving distance and 163rd in putting average last year.

Lee Westwood to miss the cut +120 @ Stan James [2 units]
In very poor form, though he has shown brief glimpses of his former game, like Norman it is in his driving and putting that he will miss the cut this week. In 2000 he was ranked 9th in total driving and 1st in total putting on the European Tour; in 2001 he was ranked 105th in total driving and 28th in total putting. Should struggle with a late Thursday tee-time, his confidence is too fragile to overcome a poor 1st round when he has to putt on spike-marked greens.

Ian Woosnam to miss the cut +115 @ BetInternet
Like Norman, Woosie is now too old and short off the tee to compete this week. He currently ranks 151st in driving distance on the European Tour. Last year he missed his first cut at Augusta since his debut year and without any warm-up events on the PGA Tour before this week, this should be a short week's work.

Brad Faxon to have a lower average putts per round than Nick Price -110 @ UK Betting [2 units]
Arguably the Tour's best putter against one who struggles on the green. Have to be careful about these props, but expect Price to hit far more greens in regulation anyway. Surprisingly not much difference between them in the Tour stats, but in the one common event this year, the Players Championship, Faxon did average 1.5 putts less per round than Price.

Prop plays:

Have had more time to research the UK Betting stat props and have some more to add. With the driving distance props, this year's driving stats are more important than past years at Augusta because of the changes in technology, whereas previous experience at Augusta is more important for the putting stats than current years because of the nature of the greens. A five-year history is looked at for the putting stats rather than three years. Rather than looking at the PGA Tour stats which are a yearly average and can be quite volatile at this early stage of the year, I have looked at stats in common events where both players have made the cut (I do not have the stats for players who missed the cut in each event). This way I can compare players playing in similar conditions regarding the weather and the course.

All plays are combined with one prop in particular:

Tiger Woods to have a longer average driving distance than David Duval -200
Three common events this year and Woods is 3-0: 19 yards longer at the Mercedes; 3 yards longer at the Bay Hill Invitational; and 9 yards longer at the Players Championship. In the last three years at Augusta, Tiger is also 3-0: 15 yards longer in 2001; 26 yards longer in 2000; and 14 yards longer in 1999.

This play is combined with the following with the combined odds displayed:

Fred Couples to have a longer average driving distance than Stuart Appleby +159
Two common events this year and Couples is 2-0: 2 yards longer at the Sony Open and 9 yards longer at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. In the last three years, Couples is 1-0: 10 yards longer in 2001.

Scott McCarron to have a longer average driving distance than Vijay Singh +175 [2 units]
Five common events this year and McCarron is 4-1: 4 yards longer at the Phoenix Open; 6 yards longer at the AT&T Pebble Beach; 17 yards longer at the Nissan Open; 1 yard longer at the Bay Hill Invitational; and 6 yards shorter at the BellSouth Classic. In the last three years at Augusta, McCarron is 1-0; 6 yards longer in 1999.

Jerry Kelly to have a longer average driving distance than Scott Hoch +175
Four common events this year and Kelly is 4-0: 11 yards longer at the Sony Open; 1 yard longer at the Nissan Open; 0.1 yards longer at the Bay Hill Invitational; and 6 yards longer at the Players Championship. Kelly is making his Masters debut this week.

David Duval to have a lower average putts per round than Vijay Singh +186
Two common events this year and they are 1-1: Duval had 5 putts less at the Bay Hill Invitational; Singh had 20 putts less at the Honda Classic. In the last five years at Augusta, Duval is 2-0-1: the same number of putts in 2001; 6 putts less in 2000 and 14 putts less in 1999.

Jesper Parnevik to have a lower average putts per round than Lee Janzen +186 [2 units]
Three common events this year and Parnevik is 2-1: 5 putts less at the AT&T Pebble Beach; 7 putts more at the Buick Invitational; and 8 putts less at the Genuity Championship. In the last five years at Augusta, Parnevik is 3-0: 2 putts less in 2001; 2 putts less in 1998; 12 putts less in 1997.

Bernhard Langer to have a lower average putts per round than Justin Leonard +186 [2 units]
Two common events this year and Langer is 2-0: 10 putts less at the Bay Hill Invitational; and 3 putts less at the Players Championship. In the last five years at Augusta, Langer is 3-1-1: 1 putt less in 2001; 3 putts more in 2000; 5 putts less in 1999; the same number of putts in 1998; and 2 putts less in 1997.

All plays are at UK Betting.

Matchup plays:

Scott Hoch to beat Mark Calcavecchia +100 @ Sports.com
Adding another unit now that I've read that Hoch has had his eyesight restored and is now holding the right end of the putter! He first had Lasix surgery performed about 18 months ago, but when he went back to the eye doctor after blowing the TPC, he learned that his eyesight had deteriorated to 20-50 vision. He had another round of surgery eight days ago. Taking the better odds now available at Sports.com though a tie will be a lost wager.

Charles Howell to beat Adam Scott -110 @ Surrey
Butch Harmon admitted that Scott was 'really excited' about playing in the Players Championship and the Masters this year and he later also admitted that the occasion got too much for him at Sawgrass. Expect the same to happen this week at Augusta and will be surprised if he makes the cut. Howell's game has rather cooled since the beginning of March, but he grew up in Augusta and was a member of Augusta Country Club, which is adjacent to Amen Corner. A return to his birthplace should bring out a stronger performance from this future Masters champion.

Nick Price to beat Colin Montgomerie -110 @ UK Betting
Price is 5-1 over Monty in the last six Masters and that was when Monty was at his prime and he could contend on American soil. Now his temperament gets the better of him and beyond his 17th place finish last week, his best finish in his last 10 PGA Tour starts has been 39th in the 2000 PGA Championship. Price played in three PGA Tour events in March and finished 5th, 9th and 14th.

Mid-point update:

Cink/Calcavecchia WON by 5
Hoch/Calcavecchia LOST by 2
Mediate/Campbell WON by 5
Garcia/Olazabal All Square
Howell/Scott Trails by 4
Price/Montgomerie All Square

Woods finishing position under 5th ... 4th
Highest score under 88.5 LOST  (Palmer shot 89)
Norman to miss cut LOST (finished 39th)
Westwood to miss cut LOST  (finished 39th)
Woosnam to miss cut WON  (finished 79th)
Faxon/Price (putts) All square
Woods/Duval (driving) WON  (Duval mc; and Woods was leading by 17 yards anyway)
Couples/Appleby (driving) WON  (Appleby mc; and Couples was leading by 6 yards anyway)
McCarron/Singh (driving) LOST  (McCarron mc; even though McCarron was leading by 7 yards )
Kelly/Hoch (driving) WON  (Hoch mc; and was leading by 3 yards anyway)
Duval/Singh (putts) LOST  (Duval mc; and was trailing by 0.14 putts/hole)
Parnevik/Janzen (putts) WON  (Janzen mc; and was leading by 0.04 putts/hole anyway)
Langer/Leonard (putts) Leads by 0.13 putts/hole

Garcia 4th
Singh 1st
Love 13th

Good position at the halfway point with Singh leading by one, Garcia just four behind and Love two shots further back having been the 1st round leader. Could have been an extremely good situation on the matchups/props ... Hoch had been ahead of Calc when they stood on the 17th tee, Arnie could/should have beaten 89 had he cut out the 4-putts, and Norman and Westwood both make great pars on the last hole - the hardest hole of the tournament so far - to make the cut by a single shot. Looks like the stats props will make this a profitable week though even if the outrights take turns to relinquish the lead.

Final update:

Matchups/props: 8-10-0; -1.44 units

Woods finishing position under 5th WON ... 1st
Faxon/Price (putts) WON by 0.21 putts/hole
Langer/Leonard (putts) LOST by 0.02 putts/hole

Garcia/Olazabal LOST by 3
Howell/Scott LOST by 6
Price/Montgomerie LOST by 2

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Garcia 8th
Singh 7th
Love 14th

Anti-climax of a final day to watch and a huge anti-climax with the plays. I never thought this would be a losing week   Leonard took just two putts for the last three holes to kill one of the lucrative stats props, the matchups all capitulated without a whimper and Garcia and Singh were hugely disappointing in the outrights. Neither of them finished in the top-5, most spectacularly with that 9 at the 15th hole from Singh