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Mercedes Championship

Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua, Hawaii
Yardage: 7263
Par: 73
USGA Rating: 75.2
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermudagrass - 9,500 sq.ft  (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Local players: None

Note: Finally learning from past mistakes ... all plays in January will be half the usual stake. Too little information at the moment to determine players' form.

Outright plays:

Tiger Woods to win 5/2 @ Sportfanatik [0.5 units]
Okay, not a very inspired first pick of 2002, but he was in very impressive form a few weeks ago at the Williams World Challenge - no repeat of his form of the second half of 2001 - and he won this event in a great shootout with Els two years ago. Els is not playing this week and nor is Mickelson or Singh, so this is a much weaker field than usual, but this is primarily a safety net play. The other two picks are quite susceptible to wilting on the final day if Tiger is in contention - just as Vijay did recently - so this ensures that all is not lost if that happens.

Davis Love to win 16/1 e.w. @ Easybets [0.5 units]
In great form at the beginning and end of 2001 with injury ruining the other months, he would be a favorite for this event, but his form in Hawaii is even more impressive. He has won the Kapalua International three times, finished 8th on this course in 1999 and has finished in the top-10 in the Sony Open on his last four visits - including 2nd twice. He looks set for yet another top-4 position.

Jim Furyk to win 30/1 e.w. (i.e. win & show) @ Olympic [0.5 units]
Not quite the same form as Love, but his record in Hawaii is just as impressive. He has also won the Kapalua International, but unlike Love, he has also won the Hawaiian Open and this event (last year) as well. This is a long, open course, but Furyk has finished in the top-10 on all three visits here and has shown that an ability to play in wind can easily overcome lack of length off the tee

72-hole plays:

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Cameron Beckman -110 @ Camelot [0.5 units]
Beckman is here courtesy of winning the Southern Farm Bureau Classic, a very weak event held the same time as the Tour Championship. He secured three top-10 finishes in the last few months of last year, but he is out of his depth here. Two missed cuts in the last two Sony Opens, whereas Maruyama finished 22nd and 9th in those two years

Jeff Sluman to beat Cameron Beckman -125 @ Easybets [0.5 units]
Slu is obviously at home in Hawaii. Top-15 in both his visits to this course and his record in the Sony Open is very impressive: 1st, 14th, 10th in the last three years. Experience of this event and at home in Hawaiian conditions are enough for a play on Sluman

Hal Sutton to beat Cameron Beckman -120 @ Intertops [1.5 units]
Injury and illness blighted Sutton's 2001 season. His record in Hawaii is not supportive of a renaissance this week, but he is by far the better and more experienced player. Not a very common matchup

Hal Sutton to beat Mark Calcavecchia +100 @ WIT [0.5 units]
Calc's form in Hawaii is no better and barring 4th at the PGA Championship, his form completely deserted him after the Masters last year. With Calc rank last at the Williams World Challenge, I'll take Sutton at this price

Sergio Garcia to beat Retief Goosen -145 @ Camelot
Both debutants in Hawaii, but Sergio is tipped to have a much stronger week. Goosen must still be tired from his exhausting schedule last year as U.S. Open Champion and barring that win at Southern Hills, his best finish on the PGA Tour last year was 34th (Bay Hill Invitational) and he failed to make the weekend in four of seven PGA Tour starts

Final update: 1-4-0 and -2.48 units

Maruyama/Beckman Lost by 2
Sluman/Beckman Lost by 10
Sutton/Beckman Lost by 4
Sutton/Calcavecchia Lost by 14
Garcia/Goosen Won by 9

Just like the start to last year. The only good news is that these were only half-plays.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.63 units

Woods 10th
Love 16th
Furyk 4th

A little lucky that Furyk held on to 4th spot, but a welcome small profit anyway.