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Michelob Championship

Outright plays (1 unit):

David Toms to win 11/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Backed a player last week who was going for the three-peat and had the distraction of the Ryder Cup and he missed the cut. Should be a clear sign to avoid Toms this week, but not at this price. He was the best player in the U.S. Ryder Cup team, not just because he was the leading points winner, but because he had the right temperament to cope with the event. Against such a weak field, including players who would be more affected by last Sunday's rout, he is backable at this price. Has done everything except win this season and this represents an excellent opportunity.

Fred Funk to finish in the top-four 5/1 @ Centrebet
Funk is another who has done everything except win this season and he would certainly be a popular winner. But again on Sunday he faltered in the home stretch, though it is doubtful that he could have kept up with Roberts' final birdie burst. Ignoring the WGC event in Ireland, he has finished in the top-4 in four of his last five starts and five of his last seven. Has not played Kingsmill too well in the last four years, but had four top-10 finishes in his four visits beforehand. Unable to win, the place-only seems the safest approach. Note that this play is provisional at the moment. If Five Dimes offer at least the same odds for a top-5 finish, this will be the final play.

Mike Weir to win 30/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Thought about Triplett who finished 2nd last year (50/1 @ Centrebet), but sided with the Canadian instead. Has had a steady year with just two missed cuts and played well in Ireland two weeks ago before falling back to 15th. With an excellent record in this event - 3rd, 2nd and 12th in the last three years - this should be another good week for Weir. Has yet to maintain his record of winning every year on the PGA Tour since 1999, but he is certainly good enough to win against this field.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Lee Janzen to beat Mark Brooks -118 @ Easybets
Brooks does not play well at Kingsmill where he is 1-4-0 against Janzen in the last five years. With his form being very erratic at the moment, this does not look to be one of his good weeks. Steady, mid-table finish from Janzen will be enough.

David Toms to beat David Duval -125 @ Sportingbet or Sporting Odds
Duval has finished lower down the leaderboard every year since he defended his title in 1998 and in his current form, which was very scrappy last week, he is unlikely to secure his first top-20 finish since May. Toms is deservedly available at much shorter odds in this matchup: -175 @ Olympic.

Adding (1 unit):

Charles Howell to beat Luke Donald -115 @ Bet365
Surprising matchup, but it is indicative of how much Howell has under-achieved this year. Still very capable of winning this title, much more than Donald, and is backed accordingly. Finished 3rd last year so it should be a much better weekend after taking last weekend off.

Chris Riley to beat J.J. Henry -140 @ Bet365
Henry finished 6th last year to beat Riley, but with finishes of 9th and 12th in the last two years, Riley should fancy his chances this week. He does have the knowledge that he can close out events after he capped a fine late summer with victory in the Reno-Tahoe Open. That is something that Henry has struggled with and he can be counted upon to fall back on Sunday if he does get too close to the lead.

Mid-point update:

Janzen/Brooks All Square
Toms/Duval Trails by 8
Howell/Donald Leads by 3
Riley/Henry WON by 6

Toms 58th
Funk mc
Weir mc

Very poor performance with the outrights this week, though at least Weir was playing well for 17 holes. He was in the top-10 at the time, but that is a long time ago! Toms has disappointed and it looks like the matchups will be counted upon to limit the damage in this event.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-0-0; +4.00 units

Janzen/Brooks WON by 2
Toms/Duval WON by 2
Howell/Donald WON by 9

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Toms 14th

Happy to get out of the event in profit and thanks mainly to a typical Duval weekend. Toms played well over the last two rounds to keep up his run of sub-par rounds, but he was certainly helped by Duval being plus-five for those rounds.