PGA Championship

Outright plays (1 unit):

Padraig Harrington to finish in the top-five 15/2 @ Five Dimes
Tiger may have had some problems with his swing over the weekend while winning the Buick Open, but sticking with place-only wagers on these three as they are not exactly prolific winners anyway. Harrington's ability to avoid victory is famous: three victories in the last 36 months is more than matched by 14 runners-up spots over the same period and a Sunday disqualification when having a very large lead. His record in this event is not impressive, but he has improved considerably when he has played in the U.S., finishing 8th, 5th, 8th in his last three events across the pond, including two of the majors. In fact, his record in this year's majors is typically consistent: Masters - 5th; U.S. Open - 8th; British Open - 5th. Top-3 in his last start (Dutch Open), he looks a decent price to be a top-5 finisher.

Davis Love to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ Five Dimes
Love is probably the one most likely to win of the three selections, but his last victory was via a final-round charge in the 2001 AT&T Pebble Beach Challenge. He was the first-round leader in the Masters, but slipped back to finish 14th. He finished 24th in the U.S. Open and 14th in the British Open, so his 2002 majors form is impressive, while he also finished 2nd twice between the U.S. and British Opens. A top-5 position is certainly within his abilities, though a repeat of his 1997 victory is rather unlikely.

Nick Price to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ Five Dimes
The most recent winner of the three - the MasterCard Colonial in May - and a two-time winner of this event (1992, 1994), Price is more akin to Harrington than Love. A very consistent player whose 34th place finish in the St. Jude Classic in June is his only finish outside the top-20 since his season-opening event in Scottsdale. He was supposed to struggle with the extremely long Bethpage Black at the U.S. Open, but still finished 8th, so this week's course should not be too daunting for him and it is hard to see anything but a strong performance from Price.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Justin Leonard to beat Mark Calcavecchia -190 @ WSEX
Horrible price, but a huge difference in form between these two players. Leonard has finished in the top-20 in 10 his last 12 starts since March and a repeat of his top-10 finish last year is not out of the question.

Fred Funk to beat K.J. Choi -118 @ Centrebet
Again siding with the player in much the better form. Funk finished 2nd last week and it was his second runners-up spot in his last three starts. But his form for the last three months has been leading up to these high finishes. He has finished in the top-25 in 9 of his last 12 starts.

Tom Lehman to beat Steve Elkington -125 @ Five Dimes
Elkington may have lost a playoff for the British Open, but this course has little resemblance to Muirfield. His form is otherwise not on par with Lehman as their head-to-head matchup record reveals: Lehman leads 8-2 over the past 12 months and 3-1 over the past 3 months.

Mike Weir to beat Lee Janzen -115 @ Bet365 [2 units]
This has been one of Weir's better events with good finishes in the last three years, whereas Janzen has missed the cut in three of the last four years. Weir may not be playing the best golf of his life, but is also playing far better than Janzen at the moment as head-to-head leads of 13-5 over the past 12 months and 4-1 over the past 3 months demonstrate.

Peter Lonard to beat Steve Lowery -120 @ Intertops
Two runners-up spots in his last three event is hardly good reason to oppose Lowery, but there may be a letdown after his incredible finish to the International two weeks ago. Could be wrong, but there is every reason to expect yet another strong performance from Lonard who is in the form of his life at the moment.

Davis Love to beat Jeff Sluman -189 @ Easybets
Ugly price, but these two players are not in the same class. And this is reflected in the head-to-head stats: 5-0 to Love in this event over the past five years; 4-0 to Love over the past 3 months and 14-4 to Love over the past 12 months.

Scott Verplank to beat Scott McCarron -138 @ Sportingbet
McCarron had a great start to the season, but he has done very little since the BellSouth Classic over four months ago. His 18th place finish in the British Open is his only top-20 finish in the last four months. Not so for Verplank, who is one of the most consistent players on Tour and finished 6th last year.

Mid-point update:

Leonard/Calcavecchia All Square
Funk/Choi WON by 11
Lehman/Elkington Leads by 4
Weir/Janzen Trails by 1
Lonard/Lowery All Square
Love/Sluman All Square
Verplank/McCarron LOST by 5

Harrington 23rd
Love 27th
Price mc

Tournament situation very much in the balance. Matchups are all very close, but Harrington and Love have at least six shots to make up on the leaders if they are to secure that top-5 place.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-3; +0.53 units

Leonard/Calcavecchia WON by 2
Lehman/Elkington WON by 4
Weir/Janzen WON by 4
Lonard/Lowery LOST by 1
Love/Sluman LOST by 5

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Harrington 17th
Love 48th

Small profit on matchups, but not enough to cover losses on outrights. They had looked good on Thursday night, but the 2002 PGA Tour misery continues.