Pennsylvania Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 14/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and Sportingbet
Not a particularly inspiring event and nor are the outright plays. Furyk had a poor 2nd round two years to miss the cut on this course. It was embarrassing as he had been one of the main figures promoting the first PGA Tour event in his home State for twenty years. After much better event last year, he should feature this time around at Waynesborough. Has hardly been outside the top-10 at any stage in his last three events and that is strong enough form against this field.

Chris DiMarco to win 20/1 e.w. Bet365 (available generally)
Was an easy 6-shot winner two years ago and has an impressive record in Pennsylvania throughout. He finished 11th and 8th in two Buy.com Tour events in this State and followed up his victory in 2000 with 11th last year, having been in contention throughout. Has yet to repeat his form (largely, his putting form) of the West Coast Swing, but he has missed just once cut all year (Sony Open in Hawaii) and he should be able to raise his game as he returns to the scene of his first PGA Tour victory.

Steve Flesch to win 30/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Retained this week despite further evidence on Sunday that he is a very unlikely winner of a Tour event. His history in this event is all too typical: 10th at the cut two years ago, he finished 61st; 2nd at the cut last year, he finished 22nd. But it does appear to be in decline. He has finished 4th, 6th, 17th and 10th in his last four events and while he continues to go backwards if he starts the final round in the top-10, he is playing as well now as he has done for two years.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Stuart Appleby to beat J.J. Henry -123 @ Intertops
Expecting a decent week from Appleby who has finished in the top-25 in seven of his last twelve events (against fields much stronger than this week) and also last year at Laurel Valley. Henry has been playing well recently, but should struggle on his debut at Waynesborough. Good putting was paramount two years ago and Appleby has a big edge in this department. He ranks 31st in putting average vs. 181st for Henry and 57th in putts per round vs. 190th for Henry.

Stuart Appleby to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Bet365
Franco is not a good putter either and he is not in the same form as Henry. He ranks 158th in putting average and 144th in putts per round. He did finish 12th in 2000, but he won on Tour that season and has not looked like winning again.

John Huston to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Five Dimes
Not expecting that good an event from Huston, maybe a repeat of last year's top-25 finish, but just look to oppose Franco whenever possible. Hard to ignore an 11-2 head-to-head record against Franco in the past year.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Ian Leggatt -110 @ Victor Chandler
Not the best of putters, but Sutherland is certainly good from tee to green and it can lead to worse putting stats than would otherwise be the case. In this course two years ago, he led the field in greens in regulation, so it was not that surprising that he finished 79th of the 80 that made the cut in the putts per round statistic. But having finished 28th and 4th in this event and 12th in his last outing, he should be able to secure another top-30 finish this week. Opposing Leggatt who has yet to play this course, missed the cut last year at Laurel Valley and lost to Sutherland in their last five common events.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Chris Smith -130 @ Olympic (available generally) [2 units]
Apart from a golden run of form that brought him three top-10 finishes in early summer, including victory at the Buick Classic, Smith has struggled to make the cut all year. With course experience and putting stats even worse than those of Sutherland, he should struggle to make the cut this week.

Mid-point update:

Appleby/Henry Trails by 5
Appleby/Franco Trails by 2
Huston/Franco Leads by 1
Sutherland/Leggatt LOST by 11
Sutherland/Smith LOST by 5

Furyk 41st
DiMarco 57th
Flesch 17th

Yikes! Pretty disastrous week at this stage across all the Tours. Sutherland disappointed, so will need to win the three remaining matchups to approach break-even, while the outrights will find it difficult to catch up on this course. Flesch is best-placed and six shots behind the leader.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3; -2.93 units

Appleby/Henry LOST by 2
Appleby/Franco WON by 2
Huston/Franco WON by 11

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Furyk 24th
DiMarco 37th
Flesch 43rd

Ouch! Bad week on all the Tours, but this one in particular. Only success was opposing Franco. Could have been better: Flesch started the final round in 4th place, but as stated above "he continues to go backwards if he starts the final round in the top-10" and promptly shot 77! Ouch!