The Players Championship

Course: TPC at Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Yardage: 7093
Par: 72  (four par-fives)
USGA Rating: 73.3
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermudagrass - 4,500 sq.ft  (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Tiger Woods
2000 - Hal Sutton
1999 - David Duval
1998 - Justin Leonard
1997 - Steve Elkington
1996 - Fred Couples
1995 - Lee Janzen
1994 - Greg Norman
1993 - Nick Price
1992 - Davis Love

Outright plays (1 unit unless stated):

David Duval to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Surrey or Blue Square
Duval may have finished back in 22nd last week, but was extremely unlucky to run up a 9 at the 16th hole. His game appears to be returning and playing in his home town on a hard, fast course, he should go close this week. A winner three years ago, 20/1 seems generous enough as I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Tiger will walk away with this title

Scott Hoch to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, BetInternet or Heathorns
Excellent course form in recent years with a worst finish of 13th in the last five. The new toughened course suits his game and if it is hard and fast this week, it will suit him even more. Encouraging top-10 finish last week.

Paul Azinger to win 80/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Zinger is another who should benefit from a hard and difficult setup. He has had some high finishes on this course since it was tightened and has been playing some much better golf since finishing 4th in the World Matchplay. Taking the 80/1 on offer at Paddy Power rather than at Heathorns because of their offer to refund any losing outright bets if there is a hole-in-one at the 17th this week.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Brad Faxon to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ Centrebet
Opposing Campbell who did finish 2nd last week and did finish 15th last year, but is considered too erratic a driver for this course and has a generally indifferent record on American soil - he missed the cut four times in seven starts on the PGA Tour last year. Faxon is one of the form horses at the moment and should perform much better at Sawgrass than over the past three years.

Scott Verplank to beat Michael Campbell -105 @ TattsBet [2 units]
Solid performances from Verplank on this course and has been equally consistent this year. He should finish in the top-20 again this week.

Scott Hoch to beat Fred Couples -111 @ Ladbrokes
Some improved form from Freddie this year, but his record at Sawgrass has not been that impressive recently. A stark contrast to Hoch's course form.

Scott Hoch to beat Padraig Harrington -125 @ Centrebet
Also backing Hoch to beat Harrington who has not really impressed again weaker fields on the European Tour this season. Achieved a mid-table position last year and can see little change this time around.

Robert Allenby to beat Niclas Fasth -118 @ Centrebet [3 units]
After finishing 2nd to Els in Dubai, Fasth came down to earth with a 56th place finish last week at Bay Hill. With no course experience at Sawgrass and a game that feature length off the tee rather than accuracy, I expect the Swede to struggle again this week. Allenby is at his best on tough tracks and would have finished in the top-10 last week but for a very poor last round.

Matt Kuchar to beat Niclas Fasth -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
No course experience for Kuchar, but his game does centre around accuracy off the tee. A top-30 finish last week was an impressive result having secured his maiden Tour win the week before and I expect him to repeat the feat again this week.

Paul Azinger to beat Angel Cabrera -111 @ Simon Bold
Three top-25 finishes on the PGA Tour since the World Matchplay is impressive from Cabrera, but his very long hitting is not ideal around Sawgrass. Can't see him improving on his 26th place last year, so sticking with my outright selection.

Cameron Beckman to beat Colin Montgomerie -111 @ Simon Bold
Monty has been erratic at best on the European Tour so I can't see a particularly good performance from him on American soil. Will side with Beckman who has been in tremendous form this season after having ended last year with a win on the PGA Tour.

Bob Tway to beat Nick Faldo -118 @ Centrebet
With just one top-20 finish on the PGA Tour last year, I don't see Faldo rediscovering some of his earlier season form at Sawgrass where he has struggled in recent years. With two top-20 finishes in his last three starts, Tway looked to have the better chance of playing at the weekend.

Charles Howell to beat Adam Scott -118 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Opposing the previous week's winner is a common play and is all the more convincing if the win was on a different Tour and in a time zone eight hours different from that at Sawgrass. Howell may not win this event, but he should improve on last week's effort when he was in contention before the weekend but gave up with a final round 82.

John Huston to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Huston's record at Sawgrass may be woeful, but he is against a player who is a very pale shadow of his former self and is currently playing with a neck injury. Coming off a top-3 finish, Huston looks far more likely to be playing at the weekend.

Vijay Singh to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -135 @ Moneyplays
Just opposing Olly once this week! Hitting fairways and greens will the order of the day at Sawgrass and this is definitely where Vijay has an advantage over Olly. He should have won last year and while I doubt he will this year, he will beat Olazabal.

Prop plays (1 unit unless stated):

Lee Westwood to miss the cut +125 @ Stan James [3 units]
Hopelessly out-of-form and suffering from a neck injury. Just can't see his swing standing up to such a tough test of golf.

Carlos Franco to miss the cut +100 @ WSEX [2 units]
Has made his last four cuts on the PGA Tour after having missed three of the first four, but these have been on much more open courses and against much weaker fields. He stills struggles to find the fairway and will take even money that he makes it three missed cuts out of four at Sawgrass.

Adding matchup play (1 unit unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Adam Scott -111 @ BetInternet
Have opposed both these players, but I do expect Cabrera to make the cut - he has been impressive on the PGA Tour so far - whereas Scott has not. He has missed the cut in six of ten starts on the PGA Tour and has to be opposed for winning in Qatar last week.

Mid-point update:

Faxon/Campbell Trails by 4
Verplank/Campbell Trails by 6
Hoch/Couples WON by 8
Hoch/Harrington Trails by 2
Allenby/Fasth WON by 10
Kuchar/Fasth LOST  (Kuchar WD)
Azinger/Cabrera LOST by 7
Beckman/Montgomerie LOST by 8
Tway/Faldo Trails by 1
Howell/Scott WON by 6
Huston/Westwood WON by 8
Singh/Olazabal LOST by 1
Cabrera/Scott WON by 8

Westwood DID miss the cut
Franco DID NOT miss the cut

Duval 24th
Hoch 38th
Azinger mc

What an infuriating event this is! No lead is ever safe on this course. Was looking at a huge tournament after the 1st round. Most of the matchups were winning, both the cut props looked safe and Duval and Hoch were both in the top-5. The 2nd was very different and to cap it all, Matt Kuchar sprains his ankle playing basketball while waiting for his delayed 2nd round tee-time. His opponent finished a very lowly 122nd but Kuchar has to withdraw injured Azinger missed the cut, but Jimenez's hole-in-one at the 17th meant it is a returned wager for some good news. All four remaining matchups are trailing and Duval and Hoch are no more than six shots out of the lead, so things could still turn dramatically for the better.

Final update:

Matchups/props: 8-7-0; +4.75 units

Faxon/Campbell LOST by 5
Verplank/Campbell LOST by 4
Hoch/Harrington WON by 5
Tway/Faldo WON by 3

Outrights: 1-1-1; +2.00 units

Duval 28th
Hoch 4th

Geez! What an event! Profitable event, but what could have been had Hoch not suffered from 3-putt-itis   Three 3-putts in the final five holes ended his interest and while he wouldn't have won - he took SEVEN more putts than Perks over the last three holes - at least the place win would not have been share with so many others. What a week!