Tampa Bay Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

John Huston to win 16/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Surrey, BetInternet or Paddy Power
The obvious choice. Won comfortably two years ago and has five wins in Florida, plus one in Hawaii, and all on Bermuda greens. With his 4th place finish last week, and ranked 1st in greens in regulation, he looks the player to beat.

Lee Janzen to win 40/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Did wonder if this would be the tournament that Steve Flesch would finally cope with being in contention - he is a class player in the field - but opted to two whose odds appear inflated. Janzen may not fit the bill of the big-hitter who is supposed to play well on this course (Surrey have Daly as joint favourite!), but he did finish 6th two years ago. Top-10 finish in his last event, the Canadian Open, and also in the International last month, Janzen is widely available at much lower odds elsewhere.

Harrison Frazar to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Rather in the Steve Flesch mould of finishers, but an attractive price nonetheless for a player who has finished in the top-10 four times this year and 17th and 9th in his last two starts. With few players who even have top-5 finishes in this week's field, this looks a big price for someone of his abilities.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Steve Flesch to beat Billy Andrade -120 @ Victor Chandler
Avoided Flesch for an outright spot, but will side with him for a matchup. Sunday nerves aside, he is playing some of the best golf of his career and so long as he isn't to close to the leaders on Saturday night, this should be another high finish. Expecting a reaction from Andrade this week. He led for virtually the entire tournament only to be denied by a Forsman eagle and him driving into the face of a bunker on the last hole. History is not on his side either. In the past two years, he has finished in the top-10 on eleven occasions. Only once has he finished inside the top-30 in his next event and on eight of those eleven occasions, he missed the cut in the next event. He missed the cut two years ago.

Lee Janzen to beat Gene Sauers -110 @ BetInternet
It was an impressive Canadian Swing from Sauers, but he had been only to get into the minor PGA Tour events before his Air Canada victory and spent most of the season on the Buy.com Tour. Has not played this course before, so will side with the outright pick who has not lost to Sauers in any of their head-to-head matchups over the past five years.

Mid-point update:

Flesch/Andrade Trails by 3
Janzen/Sauers WON by 6

Huston 29th
Janzen 8th
Frazar dnp

Pretty quiet event at the cut. Janzen wins the matchup and is in good position to secure a top-5 place, though he is seven shots behind K.J. Choi. Huston could get a place finish, being only three shots behind Janzen, so still everything to play for.

Final update:

Matchups: 1-1-0; -0.20 units

Flesch/Andrade LOST (ties lost @ Victor Chandler)

Outrights: 0-2; -2.00 units

Huston 13th
Janzen 31st

Stupid! Stupid! Stupid! Why did I take Flesch over Andrade -120 @ Victor Chandler with ties lose when he was -123 with ties push @ WIT and -125 elsewhere? Don't know how I overlooked that one and it cost me. Won't repeat that mistake for a while!